Skip to main content

Touchdown Regression Report

2020 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Derrick Henry (TEN) 160.00%4.50%314.110.74%3.92%302.31 0
Alvin Kamara (NO) 154.67%8.56%294.823.94%6.73%269.63-1
Dalvin Cook (MIN) 141.85%5.13%293.831.51%4.86%287.62 +1
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 152.44%4.74%216.842.67%4.47%213.65-1
Aaron Jones (GB) 143.17%4.48%211.953.86%3.96%208.36-1
David Montgomery (CHI) 152.94%3.24%210.863.40%3.44%215.64 +2
James Robinson (JAC) 145.00%2.92%201.473.70%2.50%190.88-1
Josh Jacobs (LV) 150.00%4.40%198.380.91%4.51%202.77 +1
Nick Chubb (CLE) 120.00%6.32%191.791.26%5.11%179.310-1
Kareem Hunt (CLE) 169.80%3.03%180.5107.01%3.49%177.411-1
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 152.74%2.46%171.7112.27%3.88%190.59 +2
Kenyan Drake (LV) 150.00%4.18%167.2120.63%4.68%175.512 0
Melvin Gordon III (DEN) 152.27%4.19%166.4132.29%3.42%156.615-2
Antonio Gibson (WAS) 140.00%6.47%166.2140.95%5.30%156.814 0
Ronald Jones II (TB) 142.38%3.65%158.3152.88%3.52%158.113 +2
Chris Carson (SEA) 128.70%3.55%150.8166.25%3.35%142.420-4
J.K. Dobbins (BAL) 150.00%6.72%150.5171.53%5.37%141.922-5
Mike Davis (ATL) 152.86%3.64%147.5183.30%4.01%153.016 +2
David Johnson (HOU) 124.35%4.08%146.5195.46%4.05%149.317 +2
D'Andre Swift (DET) 133.51%7.02%143.8203.26%6.05%136.323-3
Miles Sanders (PHI) 120.00%3.66%142.4210.44%3.60%143.219 +2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) 131.82%2.21%140.0222.77%2.68%148.218 +4
Todd Gurley II 150.00%4.62%138.2230.39%4.88%142.121 +2
Nyheim Hines (IND) 165.19%3.37%130.2244.29%4.30%131.026-2
James Conner (ARI) 130.00%3.55%129.6251.95%3.53%134.424 +1
Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF) 1210.71%5.56%129.3267.88%4.76%118.529-3
Myles Gaskin (MIA) 104.26%2.11%123.2273.89%3.48%133.825 +2
Gus Edwards (BAL) 160.00%4.17%119.2281.16%4.13%119.927 +1
Wayne Gallman (SF) 150.00%4.08%115.6290.96%3.81%114.834-5
Chase Edmonds (ARI) 165.88%1.03%115.0304.95%1.37%113.235-5
Darrell Henderson (LAR) 154.17%3.62%114.3313.75%4.21%118.628 +3
Latavius Murray (NO) 153.85%2.74%113.2323.42%2.50%110.437-5
Adrian Peterson (DET) 160.00%4.49%112.5331.02%4.80%116.531 +2
J.D. McKissic (WAS) 161.82%1.18%111.4341.93%1.85%115.632 +2
Austin Ekeler (LAC) 103.08%0.86%111.3353.27%1.52%116.730 +5
Giovani Bernard (TB) 165.08%2.42%111.1364.44%2.74%111.236 0
Devin Singletary (BUF) 160.00%1.28%105.6371.21%1.92%115.333 +4
Jamaal Williams (DET) 142.86%1.68%96.1383.20%2.62%103.638 0
Leonard Fournette (TB) 130.00%6.19%96.0391.87%5.58%97.740-1
Jerick McKinnon (KC) 152.17%6.17%93.2402.62%4.78%87.746-6
Tony Pollard (DAL) 162.50%3.96%92.8413.08%3.08%88.844-3
Cam Akers (LAR) 127.14%1.38%90.8427.15%2.82%103.339 +3
Zack Moss (BUF) 135.56%3.57%87.6435.63%4.50%93.941 +2
Damien Harris (NE) 100.00%1.46%86.3440.74%1.88%90.143 +1
Malcolm Brown (MIA) 160.00%4.95%86.1451.25%4.88%88.245 0
Frank Gore (NYJ) 150.00%1.07%84.2460.70%1.63%91.342 +4
Raheem Mostert (SF) 85.26%1.92%83.7473.01%2.50%84.747 0
Rex Burkhead (HOU) 109.09%4.48%82.6486.43%4.28%76.551-3
Joe Mixon (CIN) 63.85%2.52%78.6493.46%2.66%79.048 +1
Alexander Mattison (MIN) 136.67%2.08%73.9503.66%3.21%77.750 0
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) 35.26%8.47%73.3513.83%6.51%64.760-9
Boston Scott (PHI) 162.78%1.25%70.6523.08%1.68%73.353-1
Brian Hill (TEN) 160.00%1.00%70.4530.88%1.33%74.052 +1
Carlos Hyde (JAC) 100.00%4.94%68.9540.74%4.26%66.558-4
Devontae Booker (NYG) 160.00%3.23%68.7552.15%2.41%66.857-2
Sony Michel (NE) 811.11%1.27%68.3565.73%1.71%67.555 +1
James White (NE) 141.61%5.71%67.6571.96%4.06%65.459-2
Kalen Ballage (PIT) 110.00%3.30%64.9580.77%4.24%71.754 +4
Benny Snell Jr. (PIT) 150.00%3.60%64.9594.21%5.04%78.049 +10
Phillip Lindsay (HOU) 110.00%0.85%59.0600.90%1.20%62.361-1
Le'Veon Bell (KC) 110.00%2.44%58.6612.06%2.56%61.762-1
Joshua Kelley (LAC) 130.00%1.80%58.2621.12%2.88%67.056 +6
Salvon Ahmed (MIA) 60.00%4.00%58.0630.93%4.19%59.663 0
Duke Johnson Jr. 112.86%1.30%56.4643.64%1.32%58.264 0
Samaje Perine (CIN) 160.00%4.76%54.7652.14%4.37%54.765 0
Kerryon Johnson (PHI) 153.85%3.85%52.8663.02%3.76%51.368-2
Peyton Barber (WAS) 150.00%4.26%51.0670.09%4.61%53.066 +1
Jordan Wilkins (IND) 140.00%1.19%49.3681.32%1.51%52.267 +1
Ty Johnson (NYJ) 124.76%1.85%47.3692.94%2.86%48.369 0
Mark Ingram II (HOU) 110.00%2.78%46.9701.17%2.62%46.871-1
Justin Jackson (LAC) 80.00%0.00%46.3710.22%0.41%48.170 +1
La'Mical Perine (NYJ) 100.00%3.13%41.5720.72%2.56%40.074-2
Ito Smith (ATL) 140.00%1.56%40.3733.21%1.67%45.772 +1
DeeJay Dallas (SEA) 105.00%5.88%39.9744.61%6.98%41.773 +1
AJ Dillon (GB) 110.00%4.35%38.3751.53%2.77%34.180-5
Dion Lewis (NYG) 163.33%6.90%38.2763.17%6.08%36.576 0
Alfred Morris (NYG) 925.00%1.82%37.77715.52%1.71%35.178-1
Darrel Williams (KC) 150.00%2.56%36.5781.47%1.76%36.975 +3
Matt Breida (BUF) 110.00%0.00%33.0790.46%0.63%35.577 +2
Jeremy McNichols (TEN) 150.00%2.13%31.9802.68%2.25%35.079 +1
Josh Adams (NYJ) 80.00%6.90%30.6810.15%6.64%30.282-1
Jordan Howard (PHI) 70.00%11.43%29.7820.15%11.31%29.583-1
Devonta Freeman (BUF) 50.00%1.85%29.0833.00%1.85%30.881 +2
Rodney Smith (CAR) 70.00%2.44%27.5840.36%2.39%27.685-1
Darwin Thompson (KC) 99.09%3.70%26.2856.29%3.03%23.387-2
Royce Freeman (DEN) 120.00%0.00%25.1861.38%1.00%28.384 +2
JaMycal Hasty (SF) 80.00%2.56%24.1870.36%3.24%25.886 +1
Dare Ogunbowale (JAC) 130.00%0.00%19.9880.32%0.97%22.288 0
Ke'Shawn Vaughn (TB) 810.00%0.00%18.3897.60%0.72%18.090-1
D'Ernest Johnson (CLE) 150.00%0.00%18.0902.65%0.25%19.189 +1
Anthony McFarland Jr. (PIT) 110.00%0.00%16.7910.43%0.41%17.891 0
Trayveon Williams (CIN) 70.00%0.00%16.7920.96%0.26%17.492 0
DeAndre Washington (MIA) 40.00%0.00%12.1930.92%2.41%17.193 0
Tevin Coleman (NYJ) 70.00%0.00%8.7941.29%1.22%11.194 0