Touchdown Regression Report
2022 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Josh Jacobs (LV) | 16 | 0.00% | 3.53% | 270.3 | 1 | 0.68% | 2.98% | 261.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler (LAC) | 16 | 3.91% | 6.34% | 260.7 | 2 | 4.23% | 5.09% | 247.8 | 4 | -2 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 16 | 4.63% | 3.28% | 257.5 | 3 | 3.58% | 3.21% | 249.7 | 2 | +1 |
| Derrick Henry (TEN) | 15 | 0.00% | 3.72% | 257.0 | 4 | 2.09% | 3.09% | 248.9 | 3 | +1 |
| Nick Chubb (CLE) | 16 | 2.70% | 3.97% | 236.2 | 5 | 2.22% | 3.29% | 222.8 | 6 | -1 |
| Saquon Barkley (NYG) | 16 | 0.00% | 3.39% | 227.0 | 6 | 0.47% | 3.16% | 225.0 | 5 | +1 |
| Tony Pollard (DAL) | 15 | 5.45% | 4.66% | 207.9 | 7 | 4.42% | 3.54% | 191.4 | 9 | -2 |
| Dalvin Cook (MIN) | 16 | 3.57% | 3.02% | 197.1 | 8 | 3.81% | 3.29% | 202.3 | 7 | +1 |
| Jamaal Williams (NO) | 16 | 0.00% | 6.46% | 194.7 | 9 | 1.02% | 6.29% | 193.0 | 8 | +1 |
| Miles Sanders (CAR) | 16 | 0.00% | 4.25% | 193.4 | 10 | 0.16% | 3.87% | 187.8 | 10 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones (GB) | 16 | 6.94% | 0.94% | 184.8 | 11 | 5.29% | 1.35% | 182.9 | 11 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 16 | 1.11% | 2.38% | 171.9 | 12 | 1.57% | 2.86% | 180.4 | 12 | 0 |
| Najee Harris (PIT) | 16 | 5.66% | 2.57% | 169.5 | 13 | 4.72% | 2.73% | 169.0 | 15 | -2 |
| Joe Mixon (CIN) | 14 | 2.67% | 3.30% | 167.9 | 14 | 3.56% | 3.87% | 179.2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 14 | 0.00% | 5.19% | 167.8 | 15 | 0.88% | 4.72% | 162.5 | 17 | -2 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.27% | 166.7 | 16 | 1.54% | 2.96% | 179.9 | 13 | +3 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 14 | 0.00% | 3.95% | 163.1 | 17 | 0.34% | 3.54% | 158.2 | 18 | -1 |
| James Conner (ARI) | 13 | 1.72% | 3.83% | 154.2 | 18 | 1.81% | 3.31% | 148.9 | 19 | -1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 15 | 3.61% | 1.59% | 153.7 | 19 | 3.43% | 2.52% | 163.3 | 16 | +3 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 14 | 2.56% | 0.90% | 143.7 | 20 | 2.26% | 1.25% | 147.0 | 20 | 0 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 15 | 2.50% | 2.49% | 141.6 | 21 | 2.01% | 2.36% | 138.9 | 23 | -2 |
| Devin Singletary (HOU) | 16 | 1.89% | 2.81% | 139.0 | 22 | 2.83% | 3.17% | 145.8 | 21 | +1 |
| Dameon Pierce (HOU) | 13 | 2.56% | 1.82% | 136.4 | 23 | 2.21% | 2.23% | 141.0 | 22 | +1 |
| AJ Dillon (GB) | 16 | 0.00% | 3.76% | 136.3 | 24 | 1.44% | 3.53% | 137.4 | 25 | -1 |
| D'Andre Swift (DET) | 13 | 4.29% | 4.95% | 134.5 | 25 | 3.83% | 4.15% | 127.8 | 28 | -3 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 16 | 12.68% | 1.39% | 133.7 | 26 | 9.66% | 2.90% | 127.4 | 29 | -3 |
| Raheem Mostert (MIA) | 15 | 4.76% | 1.66% | 131.2 | 27 | 4.64% | 1.82% | 132.7 | 26 | +1 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 15 | 5.88% | 1.43% | 129.9 | 28 | 3.48% | 2.29% | 138.3 | 24 | +4 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. (MIA) | 15 | 2.70% | 2.84% | 129.1 | 29 | 2.93% | 3.01% | 131.4 | 27 | +2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) | 12 | 0.00% | 5.56% | 125.8 | 30 | 1.55% | 4.61% | 120.5 | 33 | -3 |
| Antonio Gibson (WAS) | 15 | 3.45% | 2.01% | 119.9 | 31 | 2.91% | 2.93% | 126.2 | 31 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman (CHI) | 15 | 0.00% | 2.46% | 119.2 | 32 | 0.81% | 2.80% | 123.7 | 32 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 11 | 0.00% | 2.08% | 118.4 | 33 | 1.06% | 2.55% | 126.4 | 30 | +3 |
| Cam Akers (LAR) | 14 | 0.00% | 3.72% | 115.5 | 34 | 2.97% | 3.23% | 113.2 | 35 | -1 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.94% | 109.6 | 35 | 0.75% | 3.26% | 113.5 | 34 | +1 |
| Latavius Murray | 13 | 0.00% | 3.51% | 109.4 | 36 | 0.28% | 2.89% | 103.6 | 37 | -1 |
| Khalil Herbert (CHI) | 12 | 8.33% | 3.10% | 103.9 | 37 | 4.90% | 3.22% | 102.4 | 38 | -1 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) | 12 | 8.33% | 0.98% | 103.7 | 38 | 4.89% | 1.80% | 111.3 | 36 | +2 |
| Samaje Perine (DEN) | 15 | 7.69% | 2.11% | 101.9 | 39 | 5.43% | 2.05% | 94.5 | 40 | -1 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 7 | 3.13% | 5.00% | 96.1 | 40 | 3.13% | 4.75% | 94.9 | 39 | +1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 16 | 2.27% | 2.44% | 89.0 | 41 | 2.90% | 2.85% | 93.7 | 41 | 0 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 16 | 3.45% | 0.78% | 87.6 | 42 | 3.19% | 1.22% | 90.2 | 42 | 0 |
| Michael Carter (NYJ) | 15 | 0.00% | 2.63% | 84.5 | 43 | 1.08% | 2.61% | 87.9 | 43 | 0 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 16 | 3.03% | 2.20% | 81.4 | 44 | 3.40% | 1.79% | 79.9 | 44 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) | 10 | 13.04% | 4.23% | 81.3 | 45 | 11.81% | 3.66% | 77.2 | 45 | 0 |
| James Robinson (NE) | 11 | 14.29% | 2.73% | 77.6 | 46 | 10.63% | 2.90% | 75.7 | 46 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins (BAL) | 8 | 12.50% | 2.17% | 74.2 | 47 | 11.43% | 2.47% | 75.3 | 47 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 11 | 3.85% | 3.67% | 73.2 | 48 | 4.11% | 3.16% | 70.3 | 49 | -1 |
| Damien Harris (BUF) | 10 | 0.00% | 2.83% | 68.7 | 49 | 4.05% | 2.66% | 73.2 | 48 | +1 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 13 | 0.00% | 2.11% | 66.8 | 50 | 0.47% | 2.00% | 66.7 | 52 | -2 |
| Eno Benjamin (NO) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.60% | 64.3 | 51 | 1.21% | 2.68% | 67.2 | 51 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon III | 10 | 0.00% | 2.22% | 62.1 | 52 | 0.74% | 3.32% | 69.4 | 50 | +2 |
| Jaylen Warren (PIT) | 15 | 0.00% | 1.30% | 61.0 | 53 | 1.13% | 1.79% | 65.5 | 53 | 0 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) | 16 | 0.00% | 7.55% | 60.7 | 54 | 2.05% | 7.30% | 63.5 | 54 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards (BAL) | 8 | 0.00% | 3.45% | 57.7 | 55 | 1.57% | 2.89% | 55.0 | 55 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson Jr. | 10 | 0.00% | 4.29% | 56.5 | 56 | 0.78% | 3.56% | 54.5 | 56 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison (MIN) | 16 | 5.56% | 6.76% | 55.4 | 57 | 4.58% | 5.34% | 48.0 | 59 | -2 |
| Chase Edmonds (TB) | 12 | 4.17% | 2.94% | 53.7 | 58 | 4.08% | 2.45% | 51.6 | 57 | +1 |
| JaMycal Hasty (JAC) | 13 | 3.70% | 4.35% | 49.0 | 59 | 2.75% | 4.00% | 46.5 | 62 | -3 |
| Joshua Kelley (LAC) | 11 | 0.00% | 2.90% | 48.4 | 60 | 0.38% | 3.38% | 51.0 | 58 | +2 |
| Rashaad Penny (PHI) | 5 | 0.00% | 3.51% | 48.2 | 61 | 1.24% | 2.21% | 44.1 | 63 | -2 |
| Zonovan Knight (NYJ) | 6 | 0.00% | 1.18% | 43.8 | 62 | 0.78% | 1.70% | 47.1 | 61 | +1 |
| Deon Jackson (IND) | 11 | 2.94% | 1.47% | 43.5 | 63 | 2.59% | 1.52% | 43.0 | 64 | -1 |
| Caleb Huntley (ATL) | 12 | 0.00% | 1.32% | 42.9 | 64 | 0.12% | 2.28% | 47.3 | 60 | +4 |
| Justin Jackson | 14 | 5.26% | 2.38% | 37.8 | 65 | 4.91% | 2.22% | 37.0 | 69 | -4 |
| Matt Breida (NYG) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.85% | 35.8 | 66 | 0.33% | 2.10% | 37.1 | 68 | -2 |
| Zack Moss (IND) | 12 | 0.00% | 1.08% | 35.4 | 67 | 0.51% | 1.83% | 40.0 | 66 | +1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 14 | 1.96% | 0.00% | 34.3 | 68 | 2.82% | 2.53% | 40.9 | 65 | +3 |
| Mark Ingram II | 10 | 0.00% | 1.61% | 34.1 | 69 | 3.14% | 1.83% | 38.3 | 67 | +2 |
| Boston Scott (PHI) | 14 | 0.00% | 5.56% | 29.8 | 70 | 0.19% | 4.66% | 27.0 | 75 | -5 |
| Jordan Mason (SF) | 11 | 0.00% | 2.33% | 29.0 | 71 | 0.00% | 2.42% | 29.3 | 72 | -1 |
| Ty Johnson (NYJ) | 11 | 0.00% | 3.33% | 28.3 | 72 | 0.28% | 2.12% | 26.5 | 76 | -4 |
| DeeJay Dallas (SEA) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 27.6 | 73 | 1.30% | 0.45% | 30.0 | 71 | +2 |
| Justice Hill (BAL) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 26.6 | 74 | 0.26% | 0.46% | 28.1 | 73 | +1 |
| Malik Davis (DAL) | 5 | 0.00% | 2.63% | 26.5 | 75 | 1.25% | 1.86% | 25.3 | 77 | -2 |
| Javonte Williams (DEN) | 4 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 26.0 | 76 | 3.22% | 1.23% | 33.7 | 70 | +6 |
| Dare Ogunbowale (HOU) | 14 | 0.00% | 2.38% | 24.9 | 77 | 0.87% | 2.75% | 27.2 | 74 | +3 |
| Elijah Mitchell (SF) | 4 | 0.00% | 4.44% | 23.1 | 78 | 3.67% | 4.51% | 24.2 | 78 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 8 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 21.5 | 79 | 1.10% | 0.23% | 22.8 | 79 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell (NYG) | 14 | 0.00% | 3.23% | 17.7 | 80 | 3.20% | 2.95% | 18.7 | 81 | -1 |
| Sony Michel | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 15.9 | 81 | 0.14% | 1.61% | 19.5 | 80 | +1 |
| Jonathan Williams (WAS) | 8 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 15.1 | 82 | 0.44% | 0.98% | 17.5 | 82 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram (ARI) | 10 | 0.00% | 3.70% | 13.8 | 83 | 0.66% | 4.06% | 14.6 | 84 | -1 |
| Royce Freeman | 4 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.3 | 84 | 0.51% | 0.86% | 15.7 | 83 | +1 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price (SF) | 4 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 7.2 | 85 | 0.13% | 1.80% | 10.9 | 85 | 0 |
