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Touchdown Regression Report

2020 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Derrick Henry (TEN) 160.00%3.98%314.111.02%4.04%316.01 0
Alvin Kamara (NO) 155.00%6.73%294.824.18%6.03%286.52 0
Dalvin Cook (MIN) 144.00%6.90%293.832.35%5.54%277.13 0
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 150.00%3.54%216.841.96%4.10%223.44 0
Aaron Jones (GB) 145.13%4.85%211.956.01%4.64%212.66-1
David Montgomery (CHI) 152.44%0.76%210.862.96%2.12%222.75 +1
James Robinson (JAC) 145.13%3.23%201.473.86%2.52%191.98-1
Josh Jacobs (LV) 150.00%4.40%198.380.98%3.96%195.47 +1
Nick Chubb (CLE) 120.00%6.58%191.790.27%4.95%184.39 0
Kareem Hunt (CLE) 1613.79%2.24%180.51010.04%2.57%176.611-1
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 151.96%3.33%171.7111.67%4.38%180.310 +1
Kenyan Drake (ARI) 150.00%3.42%167.2121.03%3.57%169.512 0
Melvin Gordon III (DEN) 153.45%3.74%166.4133.02%3.19%162.114-1
Antonio Gibson (WAS) 140.00%6.80%166.2140.79%5.70%160.915-1
Ronald Jones II (TB) 140.00%3.50%158.3151.75%3.56%162.713 +2
Chris Carson (SEA) 1212.00%4.55%150.8168.94%4.61%146.520-4
J.K. Dobbins (BAL) 150.00%3.51%150.5170.66%3.03%149.619-2
Mike Davis (CAR) 153.70%2.17%147.5184.06%2.95%152.916 +2
David Johnson (HOU) 124.00%2.91%146.5194.24%3.58%151.017 +2
D'Andre Swift (DET) 135.13%5.71%143.8204.17%4.97%138.422-2
Miles Sanders (PHI) 120.00%3.49%142.4210.57%3.36%142.821 0
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) 132.33%1.59%140.0223.42%2.56%150.218 +4
Todd Gurley II (ATL) 150.00%5.66%138.2230.51%5.30%135.423 0
Nyheim Hines (IND) 169.76%4.44%130.2246.75%4.54%123.126-2
James Conner (PIT) 130.00%3.79%129.6252.34%3.96%134.724 +1
Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF) 1214.29%10.53%129.3268.74%7.22%119.429-3
Myles Gaskin (MIA) 100.00%2.00%123.2271.96%3.07%133.725 +2
Gus Edwards (BAL) 160.00%3.66%119.2280.71%3.86%120.527 +1
Wayne Gallman (NYG) 150.00%7.25%115.6291.00%5.84%110.735-6
Chase Edmonds (ARI) 167.14%1.56%115.0306.10%1.67%112.834-4
Darrell Henderson (LAR) 156.25%3.92%114.3315.46%4.92%119.728 +3
Latavius Murray (NO) 150.00%2.22%113.2321.97%2.42%115.931 +1
Adrian Peterson (DET) 160.00%2.06%112.5331.14%2.60%116.630 +3
J.D. McKissic (WAS) 160.00%2.33%111.4340.84%2.70%115.532 +2
Austin Ekeler (LAC) 100.00%2.04%111.3350.51%1.47%110.237-2
Giovani Bernard (CIN) 165.56%4.17%111.1365.24%4.23%110.636 0
Devin Singletary (BUF) 160.00%1.01%105.6371.05%1.84%112.933 +4
Jamaal Williams (GB) 140.00%1.32%96.1381.22%2.96%105.738 0
Leonard Fournette (TB) 130.00%3.39%96.0391.42%3.82%100.139 0
Jerick McKinnon (SF) 152.78%6.49%93.2403.08%5.04%87.144-4
Tony Pollard (DAL) 160.00%2.13%92.8411.54%1.84%93.741 0
Cam Akers (LAR) 120.00%0.00%90.8420.84%1.23%94.240 +2
Zack Moss (BUF) 138.33%5.08%87.6438.10%5.70%89.642 +1
Damien Harris (NE) 100.00%1.18%86.3440.83%1.30%87.045-1
Malcolm Brown (LAR) 160.00%6.17%86.1451.67%5.25%83.946-1
Frank Gore (NYJ) 150.00%0.00%84.2460.81%0.49%87.943 +3
Raheem Mostert (SF) 88.33%1.96%83.7474.69%2.16%81.747 0
Rex Burkhead (NE) 1010.00%4.76%82.6486.61%4.47%75.450-2
Joe Mixon (CIN) 63.85%2.52%78.6493.45%2.67%79.049 0
Alexander Mattison (MIN) 130.00%1.41%73.9500.22%2.71%79.648 +2
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) 35.26%8.47%73.3513.79%6.53%64.757-6
Boston Scott (PHI) 165.56%1.96%70.6525.71%2.10%71.252 0
Brian Hill (ATL) 160.00%1.79%70.4530.76%2.03%72.251 +2
Carlos Hyde (SEA) 100.00%6.67%68.9540.60%4.58%63.658-4
Devontae Booker (LV) 160.00%6.12%68.7551.39%3.66%62.259-4
Sony Michel (NE) 80.00%3.85%68.3560.02%3.34%67.554 +2
Benny Snell Jr. (PIT) 150.00%4.00%64.9571.85%4.53%66.856 +1
Kalen Ballage (LAC) 110.00%2.78%64.9580.70%3.70%67.753 +5
Phillip Lindsay (DEN) 110.00%1.75%59.0591.43%2.22%61.360-1
Le'Veon Bell (KC) 110.00%0.00%58.6600.64%0.64%60.261-1
Joshua Kelley (LAC) 130.00%1.02%58.2611.19%2.34%67.455 +6
Salvon Ahmed (MIA) 60.00%3.57%58.06211.29%3.29%58.263-1
Duke Johnson Jr. (HOU) 110.00%2.08%56.4633.08%1.84%59.062 +1
Kerryon Johnson (DET) 1510.00%3.33%52.8647.26%3.73%51.965-1
Peyton Barber (WAS) 150.00%5.00%51.0650.05%6.66%55.064 +1
Jordan Wilkins (IND) 140.00%1.47%49.3661.83%1.83%51.566 0
Mark Ingram II (BAL) 110.00%3.64%46.9671.36%3.29%46.368-1
Justin Jackson (LAC) 80.00%0.00%46.3680.27%0.25%47.367 +1
La'Mical Perine (NYJ) 100.00%2.13%41.5690.82%1.84%41.370-1
DeeJay Dallas (SEA) 105.88%6.67%39.9705.38%7.77%41.469 +1
Matt Breida (MIA) 100.00%0.00%33.0710.42%0.65%34.672-1
Jeremy McNichols (TEN) 150.00%0.00%31.9723.29%0.94%34.971 +1
Jordan Howard (PHI) 70.00%14.29%29.7730.18%14.16%29.574-1
Devonta Freeman (BUF) 50.00%1.85%29.0742.93%1.84%30.773 +1
JaMycal Hasty (SF) 80.00%2.56%24.1750.34%3.26%25.975 0
D'Ernest Johnson (CLE) 150.00%0.00%18.0761.21%0.24%18.676 0