Touchdown Regression Report
2024 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 16 | 4.65% | 3.77% | 322.3 | 1 | 4.33% | 3.39% | 313.6 | 1 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 16 | 9.09% | 4.92% | 289.3 | 2 | 7.10% | 4.18% | 272.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 16 | 6.35% | 6.40% | 269.9 | 3 | 4.94% | 5.17% | 246.2 | 3 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 16 | 1.39% | 4.61% | 251.4 | 4 | 1.50% | 4.05% | 241.6 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 16 | 2.33% | 4.98% | 246.5 | 5 | 2.72% | 4.55% | 239.6 | 5 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 16 | 5.00% | 4.43% | 238.1 | 6 | 4.98% | 4.10% | 231.8 | 6 | 0 |
| James Cook III (BUF) | 15 | 5.26% | 7.73% | 225.9 | 7 | 4.02% | 6.02% | 201.8 | 11 | -4 |
| James Conner (ARI) | 16 | 1.82% | 3.39% | 206.8 | 8 | 2.08% | 3.33% | 206.8 | 7 | +1 |
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | 16 | 6.90% | 2.96% | 203.8 | 9 | 5.54% | 3.42% | 202.4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 13 | 3.13% | 3.63% | 202.7 | 10 | 2.52% | 3.57% | 200.5 | 13 | -3 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 13 | 1.92% | 4.47% | 201.7 | 11 | 3.19% | 4.13% | 200.6 | 12 | -1 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 16 | 6.06% | 3.06% | 201.0 | 12 | 5.72% | 3.33% | 203.4 | 8 | +4 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 15 | 1.85% | 4.00% | 198.6 | 13 | 2.43% | 4.10% | 202.0 | 10 | +3 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 14 | 2.25% | 2.63% | 197.3 | 14 | 1.78% | 2.75% | 196.4 | 15 | -1 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 14 | 0.00% | 6.49% | 185.7 | 15 | 0.60% | 5.84% | 179.9 | 17 | -2 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN) | 16 | 3.23% | 1.96% | 183.1 | 16 | 4.55% | 2.55% | 197.1 | 14 | +2 |
| Bucky Irving (TB) | 16 | 0.00% | 3.85% | 183.0 | 17 | 1.92% | 3.74% | 187.7 | 16 | +1 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 15 | 3.90% | 2.38% | 168.7 | 18 | 3.39% | 2.30% | 165.3 | 18 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift (CHI) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.37% | 160.0 | 19 | 0.30% | 2.40% | 161.4 | 20 | -1 |
| Najee Harris (LAC) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.28% | 157.0 | 20 | 0.65% | 2.68% | 165.2 | 19 | +1 |
| Tony Pollard (TEN) | 15 | 0.00% | 1.92% | 153.5 | 21 | 0.57% | 1.85% | 154.3 | 21 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins (DEN) | 12 | 0.00% | 4.62% | 152.3 | 22 | 1.12% | 3.76% | 144.8 | 25 | -3 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 15 | 10.53% | 2.08% | 148.6 | 23 | 7.76% | 2.67% | 144.2 | 26 | -3 |
| Rico Dowdle (CAR) | 15 | 6.12% | 0.85% | 144.4 | 24 | 4.96% | 1.28% | 147.1 | 22 | +2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 15 | 2.44% | 3.38% | 142.9 | 25 | 3.75% | 3.38% | 146.2 | 24 | +1 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (SF) | 13 | 0.00% | 4.28% | 138.2 | 26 | 1.13% | 4.22% | 139.2 | 27 | -1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 16 | 1.89% | 2.60% | 137.7 | 27 | 2.10% | 2.26% | 134.4 | 28 | -1 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 16 | 1.92% | 5.88% | 135.8 | 28 | 1.25% | 5.25% | 128.6 | 30 | -2 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 11 | 1.89% | 4.58% | 135.2 | 29 | 2.10% | 4.21% | 132.5 | 29 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 13 | 0.00% | 3.50% | 132.4 | 30 | 4.27% | 3.99% | 146.5 | 23 | +7 |
| Tank Bigsby (PHI) | 15 | 0.00% | 4.17% | 111.8 | 31 | 0.35% | 4.00% | 110.4 | 32 | -1 |
| Jordan Mason (MIN) | 12 | 0.00% | 1.96% | 104.0 | 32 | 1.71% | 2.88% | 113.8 | 31 | +1 |
| Alexander Mattison (MIA) | 13 | 2.04% | 3.03% | 98.3 | 33 | 1.74% | 3.55% | 101.6 | 34 | -1 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.88% | 98.1 | 34 | 0.69% | 3.35% | 105.0 | 33 | +1 |
| Jerome Ford (CLE) | 14 | 0.00% | 2.88% | 97.0 | 35 | 0.31% | 2.47% | 95.2 | 35 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler (WAS) | 11 | 0.00% | 5.19% | 94.1 | 36 | 0.89% | 4.75% | 94.2 | 36 | 0 |
| Ray Davis (BUF) | 16 | 15.79% | 2.65% | 86.6 | 37 | 10.74% | 2.44% | 79.4 | 42 | -5 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.19% | 86.3 | 38 | 0.79% | 2.62% | 90.4 | 39 | -1 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) | 14 | 0.00% | 1.33% | 85.2 | 39 | 1.08% | 1.79% | 92.7 | 38 | +1 |
| Ameer Abdullah (IND) | 16 | 6.38% | 3.03% | 85.2 | 40 | 5.43% | 3.39% | 83.9 | 40 | 0 |
| Justice Hill (BAL) | 15 | 5.77% | 2.13% | 85.1 | 41 | 4.16% | 2.05% | 79.9 | 41 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren (PIT) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.83% | 84.0 | 42 | 1.15% | 1.59% | 92.7 | 37 | +5 |
| Tyjae Spears (TEN) | 12 | 2.86% | 4.76% | 83.6 | 43 | 2.24% | 3.79% | 77.4 | 44 | -1 |
| Isaac Guerendo (SF) | 15 | 0.00% | 4.76% | 78.7 | 44 | 0.55% | 4.21% | 76.4 | 45 | -1 |
| Antonio Gibson (NE) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.83% | 74.3 | 45 | 0.61% | 1.35% | 79.1 | 43 | +2 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 15 | 0.00% | 3.54% | 73.9 | 46 | 0.31% | 3.09% | 71.3 | 46 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson (BUF) | 16 | 12.00% | 2.44% | 72.4 | 47 | 8.35% | 2.79% | 67.8 | 49 | -2 |
| Cam Akers | 15 | 16.67% | 1.92% | 72.3 | 48 | 12.09% | 2.14% | 68.7 | 48 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson (GB) | 16 | 7.14% | 3.88% | 71.9 | 49 | 4.69% | 3.41% | 66.9 | 50 | -1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) | 15 | 7.41% | 0.88% | 68.4 | 50 | 5.49% | 1.47% | 69.2 | 47 | +3 |
| Braelon Allen (NYJ) | 16 | 3.70% | 2.17% | 63.9 | 51 | 2.34% | 2.07% | 61.1 | 52 | -1 |
| Gus Edwards | 11 | 0.00% | 3.96% | 61.1 | 52 | 0.25% | 3.86% | 60.6 | 53 | -1 |
| Roschon Johnson (CHI) | 12 | 0.00% | 10.91% | 59.5 | 53 | 0.66% | 9.09% | 54.3 | 56 | -3 |
| Zack Moss | 9 | 3.70% | 2.70% | 58.9 | 54 | 3.26% | 4.02% | 64.0 | 51 | +3 |
| Nick Chubb (HOU) | 8 | 9.09% | 2.94% | 58.3 | 55 | 7.17% | 3.17% | 58.4 | 54 | +1 |
| Sean Tucker (TB) | 16 | 8.33% | 4.00% | 58.1 | 56 | 4.46% | 3.57% | 54.0 | 57 | -1 |
| Jeremy McNichols (WAS) | 16 | 0.00% | 7.27% | 54.8 | 57 | 1.17% | 5.29% | 49.1 | 60 | -3 |
| Raheem Mostert (LV) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.35% | 51.9 | 58 | 0.67% | 2.77% | 54.9 | 55 | +3 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 15 | 0.00% | 4.05% | 45.5 | 59 | 0.81% | 3.91% | 45.6 | 61 | -2 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 7 | 0.00% | 1.20% | 44.9 | 60 | 1.98% | 1.75% | 49.5 | 59 | +1 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PIT) | 16 | 0.00% | 1.33% | 44.3 | 61 | 1.13% | 2.40% | 50.6 | 58 | +3 |
| Trey Benson (ARI) | 13 | 0.00% | 1.59% | 41.0 | 62 | 0.35% | 1.40% | 40.4 | 63 | -1 |
| Trey Sermon | 16 | 0.00% | 3.57% | 37.3 | 63 | 1.02% | 4.71% | 42.3 | 62 | +1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale (HOU) | 16 | 3.57% | 0.00% | 34.7 | 64 | 5.19% | 0.70% | 38.7 | 64 | 0 |
| Audric Estime (NO) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.63% | 34.3 | 65 | 0.16% | 2.33% | 33.0 | 66 | -1 |
| Tyler Goodson (IND) | 15 | 6.67% | 3.13% | 32.9 | 66 | 5.57% | 2.97% | 31.6 | 68 | -2 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 4 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 32.8 | 67 | 1.65% | 0.79% | 37.0 | 65 | +2 |
| Isaiah Davis (NYJ) | 13 | 8.33% | 3.33% | 32.8 | 68 | 7.18% | 2.13% | 29.8 | 70 | -2 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (WAS) | 7 | 0.00% | 5.71% | 30.5 | 69 | 1.56% | 5.32% | 29.8 | 71 | -2 |
| Miles Sanders (DAL) | 10 | 3.33% | 3.64% | 29.7 | 70 | 2.40% | 3.02% | 26.0 | 76 | -6 |
| Kimani Vidal (LAC) | 9 | 11.11% | 0.00% | 27.7 | 71 | 6.25% | 0.51% | 26.4 | 74 | -3 |
| Jamaal Williams | 13 | 0.00% | 2.08% | 25.9 | 72 | 0.85% | 2.23% | 26.9 | 72 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 12 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 25.4 | 73 | 5.01% | 0.89% | 25.3 | 78 | -5 |
| Chris Brooks (GB) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.78% | 25.3 | 74 | 1.46% | 2.69% | 26.2 | 75 | -1 |
| Blake Corum (LAR) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 24.3 | 75 | 0.14% | 2.06% | 31.5 | 69 | +6 |
| Jaylen Wright (MIA) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 24.1 | 76 | 2.28% | 0.38% | 26.5 | 73 | +3 |
| Kendre Miller (NO) | 7 | 0.00% | 2.56% | 24.1 | 77 | 0.39% | 1.71% | 22.3 | 84 | -7 |
| Zamir White (LV) | 8 | 0.00% | 1.54% | 23.3 | 78 | 0.56% | 1.93% | 25.1 | 79 | -1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 23.1 | 79 | 0.35% | 2.17% | 32.5 | 67 | +12 |
| Ty Chandler (MIN) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 22.4 | 80 | 1.28% | 0.54% | 24.7 | 81 | -1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson (NE) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 21.3 | 81 | 1.23% | 1.44% | 25.5 | 77 | +4 |
| Sincere McCormick (DEN) | 4 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 21.2 | 82 | 1.17% | 1.38% | 24.9 | 80 | +2 |
| Pierre Strong Jr. (GB) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 21.2 | 83 | 0.62% | 0.26% | 22.4 | 83 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins (LAC) | 14 | 33.33% | 5.88% | 20.5 | 84 | 17.05% | 8.33% | 22.6 | 82 | +2 |
| Dameon Pierce (KC) | 10 | 0.00% | 5.00% | 17.9 | 85 | 0.99% | 3.04% | 13.4 | 91 | -6 |
| Patrick Taylor Jr. (SF) | 8 | 0.00% | 2.56% | 14.7 | 86 | 0.80% | 3.51% | 17.4 | 87 | -1 |
| Kenny McIntosh (SEA) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14.5 | 87 | 0.14% | 0.39% | 15.3 | 88 | -1 |
| Carson Steele (KC) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14.2 | 88 | 1.37% | 1.85% | 21.3 | 85 | +3 |
| Craig Reynolds (NE) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14.0 | 89 | 0.42% | 0.37% | 14.8 | 90 | -1 |
| Khalil Herbert (NYJ) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.78% | 13.2 | 90 | 2.33% | 4.08% | 17.6 | 86 | +4 |
| Michael Carter (ARI) | 3 | 0.00% | 2.86% | 12.9 | 91 | 1.23% | 3.58% | 15.2 | 89 | +2 |
| Will Shipley (PHI) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.0 | 92 | 3.96% | 0.40% | 6.7 | 92 | 0 |
