Touchdown Regression Report
2025 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 16 | 3.64% | 5.57% | 312.4 | 1 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 259.5 | 3 | -2 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 16 | 5.43% | 3.22% | 308.9 | 2 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 285.5 | 2 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 16 | 3.88% | 2.44% | 287.5 | 3 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 290.3 | 1 | +2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 16 | 5.32% | 5.35% | 272.6 | 4 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 228.5 | 6 | -2 |
| James Cook III (BUF) | 16 | 5.00% | 3.88% | 267.7 | 5 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 248.0 | 4 | +1 |
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | 16 | 4.71% | 3.36% | 255.8 | 6 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 243.6 | 5 | +1 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 16 | 0.00% | 5.21% | 251.9 | 7 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 212.9 | 7 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 16 | 6.00% | 3.86% | 219.2 | 8 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 195.3 | 10 | -2 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) | 16 | 11.54% | 2.69% | 214.1 | 9 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 191.1 | 12 | -3 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 16 | 3.92% | 4.37% | 207.8 | 10 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 185.9 | 13 | -3 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 15 | 2.27% | 5.56% | 201.1 | 11 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 168.6 | 17 | -6 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 16 | 5.68% | 2.59% | 198.6 | 12 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 194.3 | 11 | +1 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 16 | 4.00% | 2.50% | 195.3 | 13 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 202.5 | 8 | +5 |
| D'Andre Swift (CHI) | 15 | 2.08% | 4.04% | 189.8 | 14 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 177.8 | 15 | -1 |
| Ashton Jeanty (LV) | 16 | 6.85% | 1.88% | 180.7 | 15 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 177.7 | 16 | -1 |
| Rico Dowdle (CAR) | 16 | 2.00% | 2.54% | 176.3 | 16 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 185.6 | 14 | +2 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 16 | 2.08% | 1.65% | 171.7 | 17 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 195.6 | 9 | +8 |
| Jaylen Warren (PIT) | 15 | 4.44% | 2.84% | 167.2 | 18 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 163.1 | 19 | -1 |
| RJ Harvey (DEN) | 16 | 8.62% | 4.76% | 156.3 | 19 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 118.5 | 28 | -9 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | 16 | 2.38% | 5.00% | 153.9 | 20 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 144.6 | 22 | -2 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.26% | 147.6 | 21 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 161.5 | 20 | +1 |
| Tony Pollard (TEN) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.07% | 146.3 | 22 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 165.6 | 18 | +4 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 15 | 0.00% | 6.52% | 145.7 | 23 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 114.4 | 29 | -6 |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | 14 | 0.00% | 3.04% | 143.8 | 24 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 151.1 | 21 | +3 |
| David Montgomery (HOU) | 16 | 0.00% | 5.06% | 137.4 | 25 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 122.4 | 27 | -2 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PIT) | 16 | 3.53% | 4.39% | 134.9 | 26 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 127.1 | 25 | +1 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) | 16 | 0.00% | 4.57% | 128.4 | 27 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 112.9 | 30 | -3 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 16 | 4.00% | 4.91% | 123.9 | 28 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 103.1 | 38 | -10 |
| Kyle Monangai (CHI) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.94% | 123.8 | 29 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 129.4 | 24 | +5 |
| Woody Marks (HOU) | 15 | 8.33% | 1.02% | 122.3 | 30 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 132.9 | 23 | +7 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 13 | 5.26% | 5.38% | 113.5 | 31 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 106.7 | 34 | -3 |
| Blake Corum (LAR) | 16 | 0.00% | 4.14% | 107.3 | 32 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 98.2 | 41 | -9 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 16 | 0.00% | 5.59% | 107.1 | 33 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 86.9 | 43 | -10 |
| Jordan Mason (MIN) | 15 | 0.00% | 3.77% | 105.5 | 34 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 99.4 | 40 | -6 |
| J.K. Dobbins (DEN) | 10 | 0.00% | 2.61% | 104.9 | 35 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 111.9 | 31 | +4 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 14 | 4.17% | 1.14% | 104.9 | 36 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 123.4 | 26 | +10 |
| Cam Skattebo (NYG) | 8 | 6.25% | 4.95% | 103.7 | 37 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 86.3 | 44 | -7 |
| Omarion Hampton (LAC) | 9 | 2.86% | 3.23% | 103.7 | 38 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 103.1 | 37 | +1 |
| Kimani Vidal (LAC) | 12 | 4.55% | 1.94% | 100.9 | 39 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 109.0 | 32 | +7 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 16 | 0.00% | 3.03% | 98.9 | 40 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 106.0 | 35 | +5 |
| Bucky Irving (TB) | 9 | 8.57% | 0.58% | 98.7 | 41 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 108.0 | 33 | +8 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 14 | 7.69% | 0.75% | 93.7 | 42 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 100.4 | 39 | +3 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 12 | 2.44% | 1.52% | 90.7 | 43 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 104.7 | 36 | +7 |
| Sean Tucker (TB) | 16 | 9.09% | 8.14% | 83.8 | 44 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 53.0 | 59 | -15 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 16 | 0.00% | 4.20% | 80.2 | 45 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 80.1 | 47 | -2 |
| Nick Chubb (HOU) | 15 | 0.00% | 2.46% | 75.3 | 46 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 83.6 | 45 | +1 |
| Emanuel Wilson (GB) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.40% | 74.7 | 47 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 79.5 | 49 | -2 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (WAS) | 12 | 0.00% | 5.36% | 74.7 | 48 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 63.1 | 51 | -3 |
| Bam Knight (ARI) | 12 | 3.23% | 4.88% | 70.9 | 49 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 61.8 | 52 | -3 |
| Bhayshul Tuten (JAC) | 14 | 14.29% | 6.02% | 70.3 | 50 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 51.3 | 61 | -11 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 13 | 3.85% | 0.85% | 68.3 | 51 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 83.0 | 46 | +5 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.76% | 67.7 | 52 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 93.2 | 42 | +10 |
| Tyjae Spears (TEN) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.78% | 64.0 | 53 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 72.7 | 50 | +3 |
| Michael Carter (ARI) | 12 | 0.00% | 1.09% | 62.1 | 54 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 79.6 | 48 | +6 |
| Ty Johnson (BUF) | 16 | 6.06% | 6.00% | 58.7 | 55 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 53.2 | 58 | -3 |
| Samaje Perine (CIN) | 14 | 0.00% | 3.57% | 55.7 | 56 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 54.9 | 56 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (SF) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.17% | 53.6 | 57 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 60.5 | 53 | +4 |
| Dylan Sampson (CLE) | 14 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 50.2 | 58 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 55.2 | 55 | +3 |
| Isaiah Davis (NYJ) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.33% | 50.2 | 59 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 57.3 | 54 | +5 |
| Jeremy McNichols (WAS) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.27% | 46.6 | 60 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 54.1 | 57 | +3 |
| Keaton Mitchell (BAL) | 12 | 0.00% | 1.69% | 46.2 | 61 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 53.0 | 60 | +1 |
| Ollie Gordon II (MIA) | 16 | 11.11% | 4.29% | 46.0 | 62 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 34.8 | 68 | -6 |
| Devin Neal (NO) | 9 | 0.00% | 3.51% | 43.0 | 63 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 45.1 | 62 | +1 |
| Jaylen Wright (MIA) | 10 | 0.00% | 2.86% | 41.2 | 64 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 41.1 | 64 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado (ARI) | 12 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 39.6 | 65 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 44.9 | 63 | +2 |
| Malik Davis (DAL) | 10 | 0.00% | 3.85% | 38.6 | 66 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 37.2 | 67 | -1 |
| Tank Bigsby (PHI) | 15 | 0.00% | 3.17% | 34.2 | 67 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 37.5 | 66 | +1 |
| Brashard Smith (KC) | 16 | 2.86% | 0.00% | 32.5 | 68 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 38.1 | 65 | +3 |
| Ray Davis (BUF) | 16 | 15.38% | 0.00% | 30.7 | 69 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 33.6 | 70 | -1 |
| Kendre Miller (NO) | 7 | 0.00% | 2.13% | 28.3 | 70 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 31.9 | 71 | -1 |
| Audric Estime (NO) | 6 | 0.00% | 2.17% | 25.5 | 71 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 25.6 | 77 | -6 |
| James Conner (ARI) | 4 | 11.11% | 3.13% | 25.3 | 72 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 20.9 | 82 | -10 |
| Zavier Scott (MIN) | 10 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 23.5 | 73 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 25.6 | 75 | -2 |
| Jawhar Jordan (HOU) | 3 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 22.4 | 74 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 30.7 | 72 | +2 |
| Trey Benson (ARI) | 5 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 22.4 | 75 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 30.7 | 73 | +2 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) | 7 | 0.00% | 2.70% | 21.6 | 76 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 22.1 | 79 | -3 |
| Jaret Patterson (LAC) | 5 | 0.00% | 2.44% | 19.0 | 77 | nan% | 3.10% | 19.1 | 86 | -9 |
| Raheim Sanders (CLE) | 4 | 0.00% | 3.70% | 14.0 | 78 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 12.6 | 94 | -16 |
| Chris Brooks (GB) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.6 | 79 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 19.3 | 85 | -6 |
| Kaleb Johnson (PIT) | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 7.8 | 80 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 13.4 | 90 | -10 |
| Jaydon Blue (DAL) | 4 | 0.00% | 2.63% | 7.0 | 81 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 11.3 | 98 | -17 |
| DJ Giddens (IND) | 8 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 6.6 | 82 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 10.3 | 102 | -20 |
