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Alvin Kamara or Derrick Henry

Who Should I Start? - Week 1


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Player Summaries Comparison
 
Experts' Pick
 
 
Derrick Henry
RB - TEN
at DEN, Mon 10pm EDT
Alvin Kamara
RB - NO
vs. TB, Sun 4pm EDT
 
 
Default player image

Expert
Recommendation


Updated: Sep 29th, 2020
86%
Recommended by
153 of 177 experts
14%
Recommended by
24 of 177 experts
Add Player
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Rankings 
    
ECR# 5# 8-
Best Rank# 1# 3-
Worst Rank# 13# 27-
    
Matchup 
    
Opponent at DEN vs. TB-
Matchup RatingThis is a 2 star matchup. RBs perform a little worse than their average vs DENThis is a 1 star matchup. RBs perform worse than their average vs TB-
    
    
Stats Allowed   
Rush Att27.122.4
Rush Yds13080.6
Rush TD1.40.6
    
Fantasy Points 
    
Season Total314.1294.8-
Avg Game19.619.7-
2019 Average19.619.7-
    
Misc 
    
Injury Alert-
WeatherIndoor-
    
Expert Ranks 
Derrick HenryAlvin KamaraAdd Player
    
Scott AtkinsS. Atkins
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#7#14-
    
Husein ShabazzH. Shabazz
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09/09
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09/13
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numberFire
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Player Game Logs Comparison
 
Derrick Henry
RB - TEN
Alvin Kamara
RB - NO
2020 Schedule 
Week 1 at DEN vs. TB
Week 2 vs. JAC at LV
Week 3 at MIN vs. GB
Week 4BYE WEEK at DET
Week 5 vs. BUF vs. LAC
Week 6 vs. HOUBYE WEEK
Week 7 vs. PIT vs. CAR
Week 8 at CIN at CHI
Week 9 vs. CHI at TB
Week 10 vs. IND vs. SF
Week 11 at BAL vs. ATL
Week 12 at IND at DEN
Week 13 vs. CLE at ATL
Week 14 at JAC at PHI
Week 15 vs. DET vs. KC
Week 16 at GB vs. MIN
Week 17 at HOU at CAR
Player Fantasy Points Comparison
 
Derrick Henry
RB - TEN
Alvin Kamara
RB - NO
2020 Points 
Week 113.118.7
Week 28.429.4
Week 325.031.7
Week 417.9
Week 518.311.9
Week 638.4
Week 713.214.8
Week 817.216.3
Week 96.810.9
Week 1010.927.8
Week 1119.210.5
Week 1236.55.2
Week 134.915.7
Week 1434.215.4
Week 1523.215.4
Week 169.853.2
Week 1735.0
Total314.1294.8
Average19.619.7
Player Targets Comparison
 
Derrick Henry
RB - TEN
Alvin Kamara
RB - NO
2020 Targets 
Week 138
Week 229
Week 3314
Week 44
Week 5210
Week 65
Week 728
Week 8113
Week 906
Week 1028
Week 1121
Week 1242
Week 1313
Week 14210
Week 1526
Week 1605
Week 170
Notes for Player Combination
 
Derrick Henry
RB - TEN
at DEN, Mon 10pm EDT
Alvin Kamara
RB - NO
vs. TB, Sun 4pm EDT
Expert 
Kevin Wheeler
The Draft Zone
Darrynton Evans (hamstring) is out for Week 1. Denver isn't a great place to try to play every snap, fatigue could easily become a factor for Henry in this one. 
Mike Tagliere
FantasyPros
The last nine games we've seen Henry on the field, here are the numbers he's produced: 222 carries, 1,342 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns. Those would be elite numbers over the course of a whole season. We're talking about nine games. It's going to be tough against the Broncos though, who were already a good run-stuffing defense in 2019 when they allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Now you add in interior lineman Jurrell Casey and get edge rusher Bradley Chubb back from injury? There was one game where the Broncos were absolutely crushed last year (Leonard Fournette rushed for 225 yards on 29 carries), but outside of that game, they allowed just 3.68 yards per carry. Henry himself was among the casualties against them last year, as he totaled a season-low 28 yards on 15 carries. Henry also lost his starting right tackle this offseason, though they did draft Isaiah Wilson in the first round to take Jack Conklin's place. If Henry wants to get into RB1 territory this week, he's going to need to be involved in the passing game more than he was last year (never saw more than three targets), so it's not looking great. You're starting him with the way he's played with Tannehill under center, but temper expectations to the high-end RB2 area this week in a tough matchup.It seems like Kamara will be on the field for the Saints in Week 1, though nothing is set in stone until they agree to that contract extension. I'll come back on Saturday and update these notes if needed, but we'll plan like Kamara will be out there. The Bucs are a brutal matchup for running backs, as evidenced by the league-low 907 rushing yards they allowed in 2019. They allowed a league-low 3.02 yards per carry, and also contained running backs through the air, allowing just 4.21 yards per target, which was also the best in the NFL. It's rare to see a team accomplish elite numbers against both, and it's even more impressive when you know they played both Christian McCaffrey and Kamara twice. In the meetings last year, Kamara was able to remain decent, finishing as the RB17 in Week 5 and then the RB3 in Week 11. The latter performance was largely in part to his 10 receptions that only netted 47 yards. Murray didn't fare so well, totaling 55 yards on 17 carries in the two games with no touchdowns, finishing as the RB48 and RB52 in those games. Have the injuries piled up for Kamara to the point where they lessen his workload? Rumors have surfaced that he had an epidural injection in his back just a few weeks ago. There's certainly enough risk between that and the matchup to downgrade Kamara's expectations to low-end RB1/high-end RB2 territory.
Jacob Wayne
Lineups
While Ryan Tannehill's production last year was pretty clearly unsustainable, Derrick Henry's was likely just the result of an individual athlete who's just better than everyone else. The former Heisman winner ran for 5.1 yards per carry last year, the third-best mark among running backs, and he did it on more carries than anyone else in the NFL (303). This Monday Night Football game is going to be a grinder of a matchup between two teams who want to control possession and run the ball. Henry is pretty much matchup-proof and while the Broncos' defense was solid against the run last year, I don't think it matters.The Buccaneers allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs last year which might stand out as you're setting your lineup this week. Kamara was a first-round pick and you're never going to bench him, but he actually has a better chance at success in Week 1 than you might think. Kamara has had 81 receptions in each of his three professional seasons and should be heavily involved in the passing game in Week 1. He's also one of the best red-zone running backs in the NFL. Kamara is a superstar and is matchup-proof - while I wouldn't target him in DFS, there's never a scenario where I would recommend benching him in a redraft league.
Isaiah Sirois
FantasyPros
Denver's defense was fairly effective against the run last season. Although they lost Derek Wolfe, they added Jurrell Casey, and I expect big things from the ex-Titan in this matchup. That said, the Broncos won't have Von Miller, and Bradley Chubb will be on a snap count, so their front seven does have some vulnerabilities. Henry is a must-start RB1 just about every week, and this one is no exception. 
Kyle Yates
FantasyPros
 Kamara and the Saints are reportedly very close to a contract extension, which leads me to believe that Kamara will be out on the field in this matchup against the Bucs. While the Bucs are a solid defensive unit, Kamara's simply too involved in the Saints game plan to contain. Kamara should see plenty of work through the air in a matchup that could easily smash the Vegas over, which means Kamara's also a solid bet to score in this one. Kamara absolutely belongs in your starting lineup every week.
Derek Lofland
FantasyPros
For what it is worth, Henry had one of his worst games of the season last year in Denver with 15 carries for 28 yards. That was also the last time Marcus Mariota started for the Titans. Even with that bad game in Denver last year, I think Henry is a good bet to be a RB1 in Week 1.The Bucs were 2nd against fantasy running backs last year, but even in a down year for Kamara, he had 137 yards rushing and 89 yards receiving in 2 games against them. Kamara is a pretty safe RB1 at home in Week 1.