Next up in our sleeper series is a look at the QB position. For those who missed it, we previously covered RBs and WRs so feel free to check out those write-ups if you’re curious about additional positions.
Before we dive in, let’s quickly review our “sleeper” methodology. As with our previous posts, this analysis looks at every player the experts have ranked and compares their rankings to each player’s expert consensus rank (ECR) as well as the player’s average draft position (ADP). Whenever the expert’s rank is better than the player’s ECR and ADP, we take note since it’s an indication that the expert is higher on the player than everyone else. We then add each player to our sleeper list if they meet the specific criteria outlined in our RB post.
This sounds great but the only problem is that when we ran the numbers using the guidelines outlined by our definition, it netted us 0 QB sleepers. D’oh! As a result, we’ve loosened up our requirements and what follows below represents the closest guys to meeting our sleeper criteria (nice save, right?).
Whew, with that explained, let’s take a look at the list:
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Notes:
- Alex Smith is a popular selection given that he shows up on the list multiple times. This one isn’t too surprising since the 49ers are a common pick to have a breakout season and that’s unlikely to happen without a strong performance from Smith. The former #1 overall pick has largely been a bust so far in his career but he did show flashes of his potential when he reclaimed the starting role last season. He has some quality talent to help him out with stud TE Vernon Davis, a solid WR corps in Michael Crabtree & Josh Morgan, and a talented offensive line. Add in that opposing teams will be placing their primary focus on stopping RB Frank Gore and it should free Smith up for a chance to have an impact fantasy season.
- Fellow Bay Area QB, Jason Campbell, also appears on the list courtesy of ESPN’s Matthew Berry. Oakland is stacked with speedy, unproven WRs (Al Davis is still the owner, right?) as well as a reliable TE in Zach Miller so Campbell has some offensive weapons to work with. The potential problem, of course, is that this is the Raiders and just about everything that could go wrong over the past 8 seasons or so has gone wrong for the organization. But hey, if “team belief” counts for anything then that bodes well for Campbell since the Raiders think they’re going to the Super Bowl.
- Another player that several experts see potential in is Matt Cassel. This one makes some sense to me. The Chiefs hired Charlie Weis as their offensive coordinator in the off-season and, for all of his critics, Weis does have a strong record of getting QBs to perform to their potential. It also helps that Cassel has a nice set of WRs to work with in Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers as well as the tremendous backfield of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones that will keep defenses honest against the pass. A big challenge for Cassel owners is that Kansas City features a shaky offensive line which is a recipe for trouble when combined with Cassel’s penchant for holding onto the ball too long. Either way, this is the season where Cassel proves if he is a legitimate fantasy option going forward or just a one year wonder.
- A surprise selection that appears twice on the list is Kyle Orton. He’s a guy that showed up on a number of sleeper lists last year but at this point most people feel he lacks the upside potential to truly have a breakout fantasy year. Add in that his #1 target in 2009, Brandon Marshall, is no longer on the team and it seems unlikely that his would be the season for Orton to take things to the next level. With that said, a true sleeper candidate is a guy that isn’t being picked by the masses to light it up so Orton does fit the bill from that perspective.
So what do you think of the QB sleeper list? Is this finally the year the 49ers get a return on their Alex Smith investment and can Matt Cassel really take things to the next level in Kansas City? I’m sure there are some additional players you guys have pegged as sleepers that didn’t make the list. Let us know who your own selections are and whether or not you think the experts are on target with their sleeper picks.
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