Week 15’s Most Accurate Experts

Posted by andrew on December, 21st 2011

Everything is on the line this weekend for fantasy owners. Bragging rights, pride, shiny trophies – you name it – are all at stake with league titles up for grabs. The same is true for the experts in our accuracy competition. They’ve battled it out for 15 weeks and we’re just 1 week away from crowning 2011’s most accurate expert. And with a razor-thin margin separating the top prognosticators, we should be in for an exciting conclusion to the competition.

 

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s take a look back at week 15’s most accurate experts. We’ll break down the top 10 experts (out of 74) to see who gave the best advice. You can also view the full list to see how the entire field rated.

 

Week 15 Leaderboard

 

Week 15 Accuracy Scores*
 Rank  Expert  PAY™
  1.  Site Projections – numberFire  66.7%
  2.  Site Projections – CBS Sports  64.7%
  3.  Tommy Rowan – TOFantasySports  64.5%
  4.  Ryan Lester – Lester’s Legends  63.3%
  5.  Staff Rankings – Fantazzle  62.8%
  6.  Alan Harrison – TheFantasyFix  62.3%
  7.  Tristan Cockcroft – ESPN  61.9%
  8.  Keet Bailey – NFL Soup  61.8%
  9.  Staff Rankings – FantasyFootballCafe  61.8%
  10.  Site Projections – scoutPRO  61.5%

*See how all 74 experts ranked for the week

 

Notes:

 

  • Congrats to numberFire for producing the week’s most accurate projections. NF was on-target across the positions we track, with their best picks coming at RB (#1 rank) and TE (#3 rank). Their RB predictions were notable for outperforming the expert consensus on a trio of players that far exceeded expectations: C.J. Spiller, Reggie Bush & Ryan Mathews. Spiller, in particular, was the week’s #1 RB (167 yards, 2 TDs) and numberFire had him slotted 10 spots higher than the field of experts.

 

  • Another set of projections that delivered in week 15 came courtesy of CBS Sports. CBS finished the week 2nd overall on the strength of their predictions at QB (#2 rank), RB (#8 rank) and TE (#10 rank). At QB, they made the correct decision by slotting Drew Brees as the week’s top QB. That may sound like an obvious pick but it wasn’t an easy call given how well a certain QB in Green Bay has played this season. CBS also took an unpopular stance by placing Tony Romo as a top 3 QB, ahead of a number of top tier players including Cam Newton. That proved to be a wise decision as Romo turned in one of his best fantasy performances of the season (249 yards passing, 4 TDs).

 

  • It stands to reason that one of the top WR experts from week 15 (Tommy Rowan – TOFantasySports) works for a site that pays homage to Terrell Owens. TO would be happy to know that Rowan gave plenty of attention to the week’s top studs. He specifically hit the mark by outranking the expert consensus for the top 5 fantasy performers. This includes expected studs such as Calvin Johnson (WR #1) & Roddy White (WR #2) as well as surprise players like Lance Moore (WR #28). Rowan also had one of the highest rankings (WR #12) for Julio Jones. Jones lived up to that lofty billing by posting top 10 fantasy numbers (91 yards, 1 TD) for the second week in a row.

 

  • As a fixture in our accuracy contest for the past 2 seasons, Ryan Lester (Lester’s Legends) has had plenty of success in the competition. This past week, he came through with a well-rounded showing across many of the positions we track: WR (#8 rank), RB (#11 rank), TE (#9 rank). Besides pegging the typical top WRs – Calvin Johnson (WR #1) & Roddy White (WR #3) – Lester also had a good read on several overachievers. His ranking (WR #23) for Lance Moore was higher than all but one expert and he was one of only a few pundits that considered Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR #34) worthy of Flex status. Heyward-Bey ultimately had one of the best games of his career (155 yards, 1 TD). In addition to his WR picks, Lester was a believer in one of the top RB studs, Reggie Bush (RB #8). He also notably downgraded Adrian Peterson (RB #11) and that was the right call as AP’s role was limited in his return to action (just 10 carries).

 

That wraps up this week’s accuracy report. Check back next week as we unveil 2011’s most accurate fantasy football expert. There are several experts with a shot to win the top honor so a lot will be riding on their week 16 predictions.

 

If you’re eager to make your own predictions, be sure to enter this week’s Beat the Expert Contest. You’ll have the opportunity to go up against the best performers in the contest this season: Andy Behrens (Yahoo! Sports), Justin Sablich (NY Times) & Chris Wesseling (Rotoworld). There are $1,000 in prizes up for grabs as well as an extra $10 for everyone who beats all 3 experts. Prizes are courtesy of our sponsor, FanDuel. Good luck!