Any good fantasy player knows that mastering the waiver wire is crucial to having a successful team. Whether you’re filling a void due to an injury (Fred Jackson) or you’re looking to replace a player with diminishing value (Rashad Jennings), there are certain to be opportunities to fine-tune your squad.
For this edition of Featured Pros, we’ve rounded up many of 2011’s most accurate experts to offer tips on who to target this week. These experts were consistently ahead of the pack in making successful predictions last season. So if anyone can steer you in the right direction for your first set of waiver wire decisions, it’s likely to be this crew.
Featured Pros
Scott Pianowski – (Yahoo! Sports)
Jeff Ratcliffe – (Pro Football Focus)
Mike Woellert – (Pro Football Focus)
Q1: Alfred Morris will undoubtedly be one of the most added players this week. Given Mike Shanahan’s history of changing up his featured backs, what recommendation do you have for owners who are thinking about grabbing Morris?
Scott Pianowski – Yahoo! Sports
By all means, grab Morris if you still can. But if you can flip him for a Top 15-20 back (and I know some of you can), I’d trade him right away. Morris doesn’t have the ideal body type or skill set to play on all three downs, and obviously Mike Shanahan has a wandering eye.
Even though his YPC (3.4) wasn’t great, Morris certainly got the lion’s share of the touches against New Orleans, and that’s the best indicator of his short-term value. Owners who have a need at running back should go after Morris — if I were desperate, I would allot 20-30% of my bankroll in FAAB formats in an attempt to get him. There is absolutely no guarantee that he’ll continue to start (even in Week 2), but obviously Mike Shanahan likes him and wasn’t afraid to give him a ton of work against the Saints. It’s a high-risk move, but how often are starting running backs available on the waiver wire?
If Morris is available in your fantasy league(s), he’s definitely worth adding, however, fantasy owners should have an exit strategy in mind. Even though Morris is a good fit and has shown he can produce in Shanahan’s system, it’s a little too unsettling for me to rely on Shanahan’s whims. Fortunately for owners looking to sell high, the Redskins face the Rams, who will be without Michael Brockers again, next week.
Jeff Ratcliffe – Pro Football Focus
You’re certainly playing with fire here, but I actually like the idea of picking up Morris this week. Shanahan is notorious for benching guys for mistakes, but Morris didn’t do anything significantly wrong on Sunday. Sure, he’s not the best blocker, but he’s not going to be their third-down back. I’m more concerned with what he did right against the Saints. His 3.4 yards per carry isn’t anything to write home about, but he caused five missed tackles and showed he can put up a 25+ touch game. This likely won’t be a pickup you can ride right into the playoffs, but I suggest you get while the getting is good with Morris.
Mike Woellert – Pro Football Focus
With Shanny playing the proverbial puppet master when it comes to his RBs, he’s worth a pick-up in 12-team leagues or deeper. Now, his consistency in Washington will be that of runny gravy, but I’d want to pick him just to prevent any of my other league-mates from grabbing him and playing him against me. I do own him in one of my leagues and I’m not in the least bit upset that his points sat on my bench. If you need an RB in a deeper league, he’s worth the roster stash.
Q2: Outside of Morris, is there a RB with availability in most leagues (< 50% ownership) that folks should consider stashing away? Why?
Scott Pianowski – Yahoo! Sports
Jonathan Dwyer (PIT): Morris is the best running back target I see at that threshold. Jonathan Dwyer is my second target.
Mikel Leshoure (DET): Given Kevin Smith’s injury history, there is a good chance that Leshoure will eventually start for Lions. If Smith stays healthy, I think he keeps the RB1 job, but I have less confidence in his durability. Another player who deserves consideration is Jacquizz Rodgers, who nearly matched Michael Turner in touches even though the Falcons held the lead for most of the game.
Jonathan Dwyer (PIT): Even though Isaac Redman is currently the starter and Rashard Mendenhall (ACL) will return sooner than later, Dwyer (available in about 80 percent of Yahoo! leagues), is worth consideration for fantasy owners. After coming to camp in the best shape of professional career, Dwyer has looked impressive in the preseason (5.3 yards per carry) and in Week 1 (a team-high 43 yards). I’m not so quick to automatically assume that Mendenhall becomes the team’s featured (or most productive) back once he returns. After all, Mendenhall averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in half of his games last year before tearing his ACL.
Jeff Ratcliffe – Pro Football Focus
Dexter McCluster (KC): It isn’t exactly a fat waiver wire week for RBs, but one guy I’m warming up to is Dexter McCluster. On Sunday, he lined up almost exclusively in the slot and did not have a single carry. But he did catch six balls on nine targets for a healthy 82 yards. He’s going to continue to see plenty of targets this season, and is worth more than a roster stash, especially in PPR leagues.
Mike Woellert – Pro Football Focus
Jonathan Dwyer (PIT): I’ve looked through some ownership percentages and Dwyer still sticks out as someone to own. Redman didn’t look good with his opportunities and didn’t show anything in terms of explosion or burst. Dwyer ran pretty rough and wasn’t afraid of contact. Even with Mendenhall due back in a week or two, he’s still coming off a pretty nasty injury, leaving the door open for Dwyer.
Q3: There is a glut of potential WRs that fantasy owners can pick up this week. From the list below, which player would be your top target? Why?
Alshon Jeffery (CHI)
Randall Cobb (GB)
Stephen Hill (NYJ)
Kevin Ogletree (DAL)
James Jones (GB)
Brandon Lafell (CAR)
Kendall Wright (TEN)
Danny Amendola (STL)
Dexter McCluster (KC)
Scott Pianowski – Yahoo! Sports
Stephen Hill (NYJ): I’m a Stephen Hill believer. He’s rangy and can run by people, and his blocking keeps him on the field. He’s far from polished and you can’t run the entire route tree with him, but anyone who posts a 25.5 YPC in a major conference (even on a modest 49 receptions) is doing something right. I expect him to lead the Jets in receiving touchdowns.
Brandon LaFell (CAR): I have been high on LaFell all offseason and it was good to see him produce in Week 1. There are other good pickups on that list, but LaFell should turn into an every week starter provided he gets enough targets.
Randall Cobb (GB): First of all, plenty of wide receivers from this list are worthy of being added in fantasy leagues. That said, Cobb is an electrifying playmaker as his 75-yard punt return shows, but it looks like the Packers will make a much more concerted effort to get the ball into his hands on offense this year. Lining up all over the field including in the backfield plenty of times, Cobb had a team-high nine receptions in Sunday’s loss to the Niners. He should continue to get enough targets to help your fantasy squad on a weekly basis.
Jeff Ratcliffe – Pro Football Focus
Randall Cobb (GB): It’s apparent the Packers are going to get Cobb involved in the offense this season. He lined up all over the field in a Percy Harvin-like role on Sunday, and caught nine passes for 77 yards. We also know from his explosive punt return skills that he’s a touchdown waiting to happen on any play. I have Cobb as my number one waiver priority this week.
Mike Woellert – Pro Football Focus
Randall Cobb (GB): For this week, I’d probably make Cobb my top target if he’s still available. He’s being used and targeted on short screens where he can use his speed and he lined up in the backfield, interestingly enough. His value skyrockets if he sees more time in the backfield or is a 3rd down back type of weapon, since Cedric Benson is not an option. In that prolific of an offense, Green Bay seems to be utilizing this playmaker and it doesn’t hurt to have Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball.
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Thanks to this week’s Featured Pros for stopping by to share their advice! Be sure to follow each expert on Twitter and visit their respective sites.
