Bobby McMann ranks the Cardinals future pitching staff and goes around the league in this week’s Future Consideration report.
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Shelby Miller was drafted out of high school in 2009 as a projectable pitching prospect with all the potential in the world. With the help of the St. Louis Cardinals organization, he has developed into a major league pitcher capable of realizing that potential. Miller is pitching lights out to start the season and looks like a future frontline starter. For the Cardinals, though, it does not stop at Miller’s development. The wealth of young arms at their disposal is enough to make opposing teams cringe with jealousy. They have dealt with some major injuries so far this season, including the loss of closer Jason Motte and starter Jaime Garcia to season-ending surgeries. While injuries like these could sink a team’s season quickly, the Cardinals have just tapped into their biggest natural resource – pitching depth. In this week’s Future Considerations, we rank them for keeper/dynasty purposes.
- Shelby Miller has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the organization and that has been on display through the first two
months of the year. It is likely that he will have his ups and downs as the season wears on, but the 22-year-old is in prime position to develop into a Top 10 keeper/dynasty option. It is always dangerous to be fully invested in young pitching talent, but Miller’s upside is worth the gamble in long-term leagues. - Adam Wainwright has pitched like a frontline starter whenever he’s been healthy. He will turn 32 years old this summer, but should be able to pitch at a high level for another 2-4 seasons. He has never been a dominant strikeout artist, but does everything very well across the board. It is because of his current elite production that he finds himself ranked here, but there are a number of young arms nipping at his heels.
- Lance Lynn, who is entering his second full season in the majors, has been nothing short of impressive thus far in his brief career. He won 18 games last year and his career K-rate is over one per inning. He looks every bit like a solid mid-rotation starter for both the Cardinals and your Fantasy team. Others behind him have more upside but you cannot argue with what Lynn has done so far.
- Trevor Rosenthal is another electric Cardinals arm that is currently enjoying a dominating start to the season. Unlike Miller, his has been in the bullpen, where he has racked up 15K/9IP and 15 holds in 26 innings this year behind closer Edward Mujica. He has the potential to be a rotation anchor or a power reliever in the future. For the short-term, Fantasy owners are left with plenty of strikeouts and very good ratios. His pitching thus far in 2013 has his keeper/dynasty value on the rise in a big way. If you can find a Rosenthal owner that thinks he is locked into a role in the bullpen, you might be able to grab him below his actual value.
- Carlos Martinez has the upside to be slotted right behind Shelby Miller, but he is not without long-term concerns. He is armed with a plus fastball, but his small physical profile has many questioning whether he is better off in the bullpen long-term. While he was briefly called up to work as a reliever, the Cardinals should give him every opportunity to be a starter. If that does not work out, he could always become a closer much like Rosenthal. Martinez is a high ceiling talent regardless of where he ends up.
- Michael Wacha is already garnering plenty of Fantasy love this season. He was drafted in the first round last June after establishing himself as a collegiate ace at Texas A&M. He was called up to the majors last week and debuted with seven strong innings of work against the Royals, striking out six and giving up just one run. He is definitely safer than Rosenthal and Martinez, but lacks their upside. Still, he profiles as a mid-rotation innings-eater with a SP2 ceiling. To be placed sixth on this list is more a reflection of the Cardinals depth than Wacha’s talent.
- Jaime Garcia has battled shoulder injuries for the past two seasons. He went under the knife last month and is temporarily out of consideration for a higher slot. He earns this spot out of respect for what he has done thus far, and his upside if healthy. Keep in mind he will only be 27 years old heading into next year and could still be a solid backend starter.
- Tyler Lyons does not garner near the fanfare of any pitcher ahead of him on this list. His minor league numbers do not jump off the page, but he has the upside to develop into a useful Fantasy starter. The lefty debuted with back-to-back 7 inning, 1 ER outings and could help in larger leagues if he stays in the rotation this season. He represents solid organizational depth in the long-term for your dynasty team.
- John Gast has had control issues but his solid strikeout rate and ability to throw a baseball with his left hand give him some Fantasy upside. In many other organizations, Gast would be viewed as a potential future rotation mainstay. With St. Louis, he is definitely in the short-term mix, but will need to perform well or risk being passed over in favor of more talented options. He could be a fine backend starter if he gets a new home.
Sorry Jake Westbrook and Chris Carpenter, but that is where the list ends. Due to advanced age and injuries, both veterans are just about off the radar completely in long-term leagues. With so much youthful talent at or near the major league level, it is going to be interesting to see how the Cardinals pitching staff takes shape in the coming seasons.
THE HYPE TRAIN
- Yasiel Puig debuted on Monday for the Dodgers and hit two HRs on Tuesday night. Last week, I said he may have the most Fantasy upside of any hitter in the minor leagues and he is likely to be the hottest waiver wire pick-up of the week. Yes, he may only be up for a few weeks while Matt Kemp is on the disabled list, but you never know how these things will work out. If he hits, the Dodgers will likely try to find a spot for him. People had the same concerns about Jurickson Profar, and now it looks like Ian Kinsler won’t be back until well after the All-Star break.
- With Carl Crawford also going on the DL, we may see Joc Pederson, another Dodgers OF prospect. Pederson may not have the ceiling that Puig possesses, but he does offer a solid power/speed combination in addition to having a great first name. He’s currently hitting over .300 in Double-A with 8 HRs and 17 SBs. He is a recommended pick-up in keeper/dynasty formats.
- Chris Davis is still streaking. He is up to 20 HRs and 19 Doubles on the year in just 56 games. The average is due to drop, but the power is very real. He is this year’s Edwin Encarnacion. His price tag is higher than it was in April because he has not slumped yet, but Davis makes for a solid long-term buy if his owner is trying to sell.
- Domonic Brown may be the only reason Chris Davis is not currently the hottest hitting player in the game right now. He hit 12 of his National League leading 17 HRs in May along with an amazing zero walks. He is talented enough to make adjustments as the season goes on. The best is yet to come for Brown as a Fantasy talent; he’s a definite hold in keeper/dynasty formats.
- The Brewers traded for Juan Francisco this week. The 25-year-old has sneaky upside if he can find his way into semi-regular playing time. That may not happen right away, as Aramis Ramirez is holding down the hot corner. Do not rule out some time at another position in the meantime, perhaps first base. Francisco is never going to hit for much of an average or draw walks, but has the power potential to be a deep mixed or NL-Only asset in time.
- Once Zack Wheeler is called up later this month, everyone is going to need another pitching prospect to monitor. Gerrit Cole and Kyle Gibson will be garnering plenty of attention, but do not look past Yordano Ventura. The Royals promoted him to Triple-A this week after he destroyed Double-A to the tune of a 2.34 ERA, 74 Strikeouts and a WHIP under one. He has very intriguing long-term upside and could see time in the majors later this summer.
- Remember Kyle Drabek? He underwent Tommy John surgery for the second time last year and is on the rehab trail. He has not pitched in any minor league games yet and was struggling with command prior to reinjuring his elbow. Still, he has the talent and pedigree worthy of a stash in deep Dynasty formats.
- Brewers prospect Scooter Gennett was called up, presumably to light a fire under the struggling Rickie Weeks. Gennett does not offer much upside with the bat, but could be worth a look in NL-Only leagues if he truly does platoon with Weeks. Odds are, he’ll be back in Triple-A before the month is up.
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