The Red Sox will look drastically different after signing Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez
Bobby Jacowleff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Bobby, check out his archive.
Just one year after being crowned World Series Champions, Boston finished in the cellar of the AL East and is now tasked with rebuilding for a 2015 run. You would think their fate would be even dimmer in 2015 after losing one of the best pitchers in the game in Jon Lester, but they can be strong contenders in the AL East and are just a few moves away from being in the midst of a pennant chase in late September. It’d be a hard time believing this is the Red Sox squad we will see come opening day, but nonetheless here is a current projection of what their lineup would be if the season started today.
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PROJECTED 2015 LINEUP:
- RF – Mookie Betts (R)
- 2B – Dustin Pedroia (R)
- CF – Rusney Castillo (R)
- DH – David Ortiz (L)
- LF – Hanley Ramirez (R)
- 3B – Pablo Sandoval (L/R)
- 1B – Allen Craig (R)
- C – Christian Vazquez (R)
- SS – Xander Bogaerts (R)
BENCH:
- 1B – Mike Napoli (R)
- 3B – Brock Holt (L)
- RF – Shane Victorino (R)
- RF – Daniel Nava (L/R)
- C – Ryan Hanigan (R)
PROJECTED 2015 ROTATION:
- Clay Buchholz (R)
- Rick Porcello (R)
- Wade Miley (L)
- Justin Masterson (R)
- Joe Kelly (R)
The amount of assets the Red Sox currently have on their bench, the lack of dominant starters on their pitching staff, and their deep pockets are exactly why the Red Sox should continue to revamp their roster before opening day. For a team with World Series aspirations, as the Red Sox always do, the current staff just won’t fly. They would need a dominant and healthy Buchholz to show up and huge rebound seasons from at least two of their other pitchers between Miley, Masterson, and Kelly to even have a competitive pitching staff. However, their offense is another story. They have five hitters who will be drafted rather highly in fantasy leagues, and another three or four who will be owned. Additionally, the fantasy irrelevant players on their bench and back end of their lineup, Napoli, Holt, Victorino, Nava, and Vazquez, all would certainly be assets to use in the trade market for a pitcher. Oh yeah, and there is Max Scherzer and James Shields still out there in the free agent pool. If the Sox throw some money around in free agency and can get a true ace for their staff, and/or trade some of their extra offense for someone similar, they could be a force to be reckoned with in 2015. Now let’s talk fantasy:
The Studs:
Pablo Sandoval: It didn’t appear to take much to pull Sandoval away from the team he won three championships with, and perhaps that’s because he knows of the potential he could have in his new home ballpark. Sandoval has disappointed fantasy owners quite often as he usually gets off to slow starts and his power numbers have never been what some thought they could be. Enter 2015, a new ballpark with a shorter right field wall and a place where he can learn from someone in a similar mold (David Ortiz) and you have a recipe for a breakout season. At 28 years old, Sandoval is fully in his prime and has had great success against some of the best pitchers in the AL during each of his World Series trips. He has batted .426 going 20-of-47 in those games and although that’s a small sample size, there’s no denying he plays well under pressure. The move and contract should have little to no effect on the Panda and there is a solid chance he produces better numbers than he has in the past and could be a great pickup for your fantasy team at a position that has been fairly shallow.
Hanley Ramirez: His role for this Red Sox team is still a bit unclear. No one really knows if he’ll spend most of his time in left field, at third, or at short. But, what is very clear, is that this man can hit, and will be given protection in the order and runners on base to do so. Ramirez will also have shortstop eligibility all year, and likely will pick up 3B and OF eligibility as the season progresses, which would only add on to his value. Some may be a little down on him after last year, however, he suffered a career how HR/FB% of 10.5%, he was at 21% and 15% the previous two years, and is now in a much better hitters ballpark and will have many more opportunities to drive in runs. A 25 homer, 15 steal, 100 RBI, 80 run, and .300 AVG season is certainly in the realm of possibilities for Ramirez, but if you choose to draft him, make sure to grab a serviceable backup in the later rounds as he has played 150+ games once since 2009.
David Ortiz: Take the statistics from 2008-2014 for Ortiz and without looking at the year, you likely wouldn’t be able to tell which was which. That’s because David Ortiz is the model of consistency in fantasy baseball. What makes him such a good draft day option is that he is constantly severely underrated. His past 369 games, roughly two seasons, Ortiz has hit 88 home runs, knocked in 267 RBI, scored 208 runs, and did all this while batting .293. That averages to 39 HR, 117 RBI, 91 runs, and a .293 AVG over 162 games. The one caveat is that those stats were accumulated over the past three years, in which Ortiz totaled 90, 137, 142 games per season. But the point holds, do those seem like the numbers of a guy you can grab after the 5th round? Ortiz may be 39 years old, but he hasn’t stopped hitting yet, so there’s no reason to think he’ll suddenly stop now. He remains a great target who can put up numbers like a poor man’s Miguel Cabrera.
Players to Stay Away From:
Dustin Pedroia: Some may be pegging Pedroia for a bounce back campaign following a disastrous 2014 where he managed only 7 homers, 6 steals, 53 RBI, 72 runs, and a .278 batting average. Pedroia in his prime was a hitter who relied on stolen bases to buoy his five category fantasy value. However, since 2011 Pedroia has been running less and less with his age, and his fantasy value has been decreasing proportionately. His home runs have also been going down, as his strikeouts went up during the same four year time frame. Pedroia is someone who could be of value, especially considering how shallow this year’s pool of second basemen are. However, given how high he may be going in drafts, he’s someone you want to resist spending such a high draft pick on. It’s especially true when options like Neil Walker are available much later in drafts, and can provide very similar five category stats.
Joe Kelly: Kelly is not someone who should be owned in any sort of fantasy league. For someone who throws 95+ with his heater, he generates so few swing and misses. This brings his strikeout rate down to the point where it would be shocking to see his K/9 rise much above 6.17 where it was last year. Additionally, Kelly struggles with control, which attributes to opposing hitters swinging at such a low percentage of his pitches. With hitters not chasing, it’s no surprise his K/9 doesn’t rise much above 6, and his walk rate doesn’t fall much below 4. There are many other pitchers you can chase if you’re looking for upside, and if you’re looking for a safer pitching option then you certainly weren’t looking at Joe Kelly to begin with.
Sleepers:
Rusney Castillo: Not too long after signing his 7 year $72.5 million dollar contract, Castillo was already making a splash in the big leagues. In just 10 games, Castillo blasted 2 homers, stole 3 bases, and batted .333. Admittedly, this is a miniscule sample size to judge any player, especially one who had never faced MLB pitching before. However, it is encouraging to see him immediately see such success. Also, Castillo has continued to make a name for himself by batting .401 with a homer and 2 steals in the Puerto Rican Winter League over 10 games. Granted he is not facing MLB pitching in Puerto Rico, once again, it is encouraging to see him perform well. I’m not saying you’ll get Jose Abreu numbers from Castillo this year by any stretch. But could he go 25/25 with good RBI and run production in a solid Red Sox lineup and keep his average around .290? Absolutely. And that is exactly why you should take a gamble on Castillo, especially after the immense success Cubans have been having in MLB lately.
Allen Craig: “Why is Allen Craig on this list? He batted .215 with 8 homers last year, this guy sucks!” I’m sure that’s what a lot of you are thinking when coming across his name. Here’s why he’s a possible sleeper. Craig battled injuries all throughout last year. If he was ever playing at 100%, it wasn’t for very much of the season before old and new injuries started popping up all over the place. Similar to Mat Latos, Craig was a model of consistency ever since he reached the major leagues, until last year. As with with Latos, I would just pretend last year didn’t happen. Do that and what do you get? A 30-year-old hitter, in a great ballpark for offense, who can consistently spray line drives to all parts of the field and bat well above .300, while hitting around 15 home runs. I’m not suggesting you’re going to get another 2012 where he averages .307 and gets 22 home runs. Hitters do tend to struggle a bit at first against pitching when changing leagues. That being said, Craig can finish the year with a .310/.375/.460 triple slash. And that would be pretty great considering how late Craig may be drafted this year.
Prospects:
Henry Owens: Owens is perhaps the only Red Sox prospect who can truly impact the 2015 season, so I’ll lead off with him. So far, there has been nothing not to like about Owens. He’s piled on the strikeouts at every level he has ever pitched at. As you probably could have guessed, the walks have come with the strikeouts more often than not. However, Owens has progressed at each level, his control has actually gotten better, which speaks wonders for his development as a pitcher. It isn’t too often to find a minor leaguer with as good off speed pitches as Owens, and the control to go along with it. If the Red Sox fail to trade for, or sign another starter, look for Owens to be making noise in Fenway sooner than later.
Blake Swihart: Swihart managed a .293/.341/.469 triple slash with 13 homers and 8 stolen bases in 416 at-bats that were distributed between Double and Triple-A. Swihart is a rare athlete at the catcher’s position. He’s a guy who has a real chance to be special long term. He projects as a 20 homer, .280 average middle of the lineup hitter in his prime. However, with the Red Sox owning Vazquez and trading for Hanigan recently, Swihart probably won’t get his chance in Fenway until August of this year and therefore, expect his impact to be marginal at best.
