Jamie Calandro gives us a preview of what to expect the 2015 New York Yankees to look like.
Calandro is the Lead Baseball Writer at Fantasy Team Advice and is gracious enough to give us his thoughts below.
It’s a cold and snowy January day in the Northeast, and as I huddle against my computer away from the wind (OK, I’m actually inside and it’s warm, but I like my imagery better), I’m reminded of one thing. Spring is right around the corner! More importantly, FANTASY BASEBALL is right around the corner! As the most grueling fantasy season approaches, players will be laden with magazines, cheat sheets, and all sorts of other stuff to give them the edge to winning a title. Even with all that help, it’s still very difficult because the stats run so deep, and the player pool is so large.
I often find that looking at a team-by-team basis helps you find the best situations to target and eliminate a lot of white noise, so that’s what I’m here for – to offer you a breakdown of each team’s top players, busts, sleepers, and projections. We’ll begin in the AL East and work our way through the divisions, and since I call NY home, I’ll start with the Yankees.
PROJECTED LINEUP
1) Jacoby Ellsbury CF
2) Brett Gardner LF
3) Carlos Beltran RF
4) Brian McCann C
5) Mark Teixiera 1B
6) Chase Headley 3B
7) Garrett Jones/Alex Rodriguez DH
8) Stephen Drew 2B
9) Didi Gregorius/Brendan Ryan SS
NOTES: The health and talent of Alex Rodriguez is going to be a big question mark going into Spring Training. Fantasy owners should seriously temper expectations, as he turns 40 this year and sat out all of 2014. Also, as of right now Didi Gregorius and Brendan Ryan are expected to platoon at SS due to Didi’s measly .490 OPS against LHP. The problem is Ryan is not knocking the cover off the ball either, posting a .556 OPS against lefties over the last three seasons. I expect Didi will win the job outright. The only possible hitch in this is if the Yanks win the rights to Cuban sensation Yoan Moncada.
PROJECTED ROTATION
1) Masahiro Tanaka RHP
2) C.C. Sabathia LHP
3) Michael Pineda RHP
4) Nathan Eovaldi RHP
5) Chris Capuano LHP
Projected Closer – Dellin Betances RHP
NOTES: The biggest thing that could change the dynamic of this rotation is if the Yanks splurge on current FA’s Max Scherzer and James Shields, who would be immediately slotted into the top of the pecking order until Tanaka is pronounced fully healthy. Keep in mind also that Ivan Nova should be back from his Tommy John surgery within the first few months of the season, and he had a healthy 7.49 K/9 and 3.47 xFIP in the 2013 season, so the talent is there. He may be worth a late round stash if it looks like he’ll only miss a month or so. I assume Capuano would be the odd man out with Nova’s return.
BLUE CHIP STUD
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF
For his standards (and for the contract he was paid), Ellsbury is coming off a disappointing year despite stealing 40 bases. However, not all of the blame can fall on him for that, as he is an elite leadoff hitter who was forced to hit third most of last year, which really took away from his strengths. His current ADP sits at 14, which is a handsome price to pay. However, I think there can usually be a year’s leeway when someone goes to another team, and I think Ellsbury performs like the top-tier talent that he is this year. The Yankees’ lineup is deeper behind him now, and I expect he will steal 50+ bases and score 100+ runs. I also like the idea of the top lefties no longer being in the AL East (Lester, Price) helping his overall season. Ellsbury has a career .347 wOBA and 112 RC+ vs RHP, and the short right field porch should give him some power upside too.
BOUNCE BACK CANDIDATE
Carlos Beltran, OF
He is likely to plummet down the draft boards this season after being derailed by injuries last year. He should be entrenched into the heart of the order, and the addition of Garrett Jones gives the Yankees a way to DH Beltran without crippling their lineup’s power. Beltran is another one who could really benefit from a full season hitting towards right field the majority of the time, as he has a career .367 wOBA and .235 ISO against RHP.
SLEEPER
Chase Headley, 3B (also 1B depending on your league)
Headley was barely even ownable in 2013 and 2014 on anything but the deepest of fantasy rosters, but I think that could change this year. People need to remember his 2012 season where he had all-star-like numbers of .286/.378/.498 along with 31 HR, 115 RBI, 95 runs, 17 SB, and an elite 7.2 WAR (and that was playing in pitcher-friendly Petco!). While he has come nowhere near replicating those totals, we at least know the prospect is there. He gets an insane park shift in his favor now, and thanks to his defense he will be in the lineup every day (probably batting sixth or seventh), which will give him major RBI opportunities he didn’t have with San Diego.
PLAYER TO AVOID/BUST ALERT
C.C. Sabathia, SP
He has proclaimed himself fully healthy, but I can’t drink the Kool-Aid anymore. The last two seasons he has averaged a 4.48 FIP with a 23.3% HR/FB rate. Those numbers KILL your fantasy squads. There is a glimmer of hope since he only had a 3.11 xFIP last year before getting injured, which suggests some bad luck, but the most worrying detail to me is the 4.7 MPH he has lost off his fastball. There is a chance he could find the fountain of youth this year and really make someone catch lightning in a bottle, but I’ll let someone else gamble on that.
LATE-ROUND FLIER
Nathan Eovaldi, SP
Eovaldi is someone who you can get in rounds 18-22 and pay $1 for in auctions who could far outstrip his value. Sure, he’s losing a lot on park effect coming from Miami to New York, but his 3.37 FIP and paltry 6.68% HR/FB rate shows a lot up upside. His K-rate was down last year, but he has posted K/9 totals over 8 in previous seasons. He also should get a few extra wins playing for the Yankees.
PROSPECT WATCH
Luis Severino, SP/RP
The Yanks’ premier pitching prospect posted a 2.46 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a 127/27 K/BB ratio over 113 innings last year in the minors. According to FOX’s Ken Rosenthal on Twitter, the Yankees believe he has a chance to make an impact on the roster as early as 2015. His 12.19 K/9 rate on the A level, followed by his 10.72 K/9 in AA has scouts salivating. He throws in the upper 90s and has a wicked change. Dynasty-leaguers should take note immediately, and players in redraft leagues wouldn’t be amiss looking his way in the last two rounds.
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You can follow Jamie on Twitter @jac3600 and read more of his articles here at Fantasy Team Advice.
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