Craig Kimbrel is the NL East’s top projected closer entering 2015
The regular season is two months away so it’s the perfect time to get acquainted with the closer landscape. Every Friday for the next six weeks the Closer Report will look at one division and analyze the ninth-inning situation for each team in that division, starting today with the National League East. We’ll also check in on any closer related news from the past week.
In the three weeks before the regular season kicks off the Closer Report will display its own chart featuring the current closer (or committee) and the next in line to close for each team. We will start with the National League, unveil the American League the following week and finish off with a full MLB chart one week before the season commences.
Finally, once the regular season begins, the Closer Report will house the full MLB closer chart and report on the previous week’s closer news, including injuries and handcuffs. We’ll name the top three closers for the previous week, and propose some fantasy picks for the upcoming schedule.
National League East Closer Profiles
Note: All average draft pick slots and projections are reported as of 2/5/15.
Atlanta Braves
If there is a sure-fire closer in Major League Baseball, it’s the Braves’ Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel has averaged 46 saves over the last four seasons. In 2014, he converted 47 of 51 opportunities while pitching to a 1.61 ERA (1.83 FIP). Kimbrel, 26, continues to rack up strikeouts (13.9 K/9 in 2014) and delivered a WHIP below one (0.91) for the third straight season.
Per Zeile Consensus Projections for relievers found here, the right-handed Kimbrel is pegged to save 36 games, incur four blown saves, grab four wins, strikeout 108 batters and maintain an outstanding ERA (1.95) and WHIP (0.99) in 2015. He is ranked fifth among all relief pitchers according to FantasyPros’ value-based ranking. Kimbrel is currently running a composite average draft pick (ADP) of 43 which is overvalued according to all the experts listed.
Behind Kimbrel on the Braves’ depth chart in no particular order are Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson. Let’s just say that Kimbrel better stay healthy.
Miami Marlins
Steve Cishek became the Marlins’ closer in 2012, and has since registered consecutive seasons with 30+ saves, reaching 39 in 2014. Cishek, 28, blew just four games last season, delivering a 3.17 ERA (2.17 FIP), 84 strikeouts and a 1.21 WHIP in 65.1 innings. Cishek’s K/9 rate jumped to 11.6 in 2014 adding two strikeouts per nine to his previous career-high mark.
Zeile projects the right-handed Cishek to have another fine season in 2015 accumulating 35 saves, five blown saves, four wins, 75 K, 2.66 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He currently has a composite ADP slot of 107, and is well overvalued by all of the experts’ rankings.
Behind Cishek on the Marlins’ depth chart is right-hander A.J. Ramos and lefty Mike Dunn. Both had very nice seasons in 2014. Ramos, 28, struck out 73 batters in 64 innings. He recorded 20 holds with a 2.11 ERA (3.21 FIP) and a 1.23 WHIP. Dunn won 10 games in 2014 with 22 holds, 67 K, 3.16 ERA (3.06 FIP) and 1.21 WHIP in 57 innings.
New York Mets
With Bobby Parnell expected to miss time as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery, Jenrry Mejia looks to be the closer of choice for the Mets after a successful 2014 season in the role.
Mejia, 25, became the Mets closer after first starting seven games for them in 2014. He went on to save 28 games in 31 opportunities. He is not as much of a strikeout machine as Kimbrel, but still averaged more than one per inning (9.6 K/9 as a reliever). Mejia walks way too many hitters which spikes his WHIP (1.42 as a reliever last season). He pitched to a 2.72 ERA as a reliever in 56.1 innings.
Mejia’s 2015 projections from Zeile have him saving 28 games in 33 opportunities with 62 K, a 3.28 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 64 innings.
Mejia ranks 42nd on the value chart and his ADP at 236 is undervalued by 36 percent of the experts making him a potential value pick in your league.
Behind Mejia is Jeurys Familia. Familia, a 25-year-old right-hander, tossed 77.1 innings in 2014, holding the opposition to a 2.21 ERA (3.07 FIP) and a 1.18 WHIP (despite a high 3.7 BB/9). He recorded two wins, 23 holds and 73 K.
Philadelphia Phillies
Jonathan Papelbon will once again take the ball in the ninth for the Phillies, though it remains to be seen for how long. The Phillies are in sell mode and Papelbon could be a hot commodity by the trade deadline, especially with Philadelphia ready to pay some of his salary. Actually, it wouldn’t be a shock if Papelbon was moved before the regular season.
In his three seasons with the Phillies, Papelbon has saved 106 games in 121 chances (39 of 43 in 2014). He continues to rank among the better closers in the game even with diminished strikeout rates (8.5 K/9 in 2014). While he didn’t strike out a ton of batters, he kept them off the bases posting a 0.91 WHIP in 2014. He finished last season with a 2.04 ERA (2.53 FIP) in 66.1 innings pitched.
Zeile estimates the 34-year-old righty will be among the better closers once again in 2015. The consensus lists Papelbon with 33 saves (37 chances), 64 K, three wins, 2.94 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 65 innings.
Papelbon is going at No. 134 in drafts, which is overvalued according to 92 percent of the experts polled. The experts’ current average draft slot for Papelbon is 159. Papelbon is 24th in value based rankings.
If Papelbon is traded or misses time due to injury, Ken Giles, the highly-touted right-hander, is waiting in the wings. Giles, 24, posted strong numbers in 45.2 innings last season – 64 K, 1.18 ERA (1.37 FIP) and a 0.79 WHIP.
Washington Nationals
Drew Storen took over the closer role from Rafael Soriano in early September last season and didn’t look back, shutting down the opposition to the tune of a 0.00 ERA while notching 10 saves during the span of 11 games. With Soriano gone, Storen is set to resume closer duties in 2015.
In all, the righty Storen had a fine 2014. He notched 11 saves, 20 holds, 46 K, a 1.13 ERA (2.71 FIP) and a 0.98 WHIP in 56.1 frames.
In 2015, Zeile currently sees Storen, 27, picking up right where he left off. His metrics come in at 38 saves (4 blown), 53 K, 3 W, 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 60 innings.
Storen is 25th in the value-based rankings and his current ADP of 158 is undervalued according to 46 percent of the expert base, but it should be noted their average ADP is 193.
Behind Storen in the Nationals’ pen is newly signed righty Casey Janssen. The former Toronto Blue Jays closer went 3-3 with a 3.94 ERA (4.14 FIP) with 25 saves (30 chances) and 28 K in 45.2 innings in 2014. It was by far the worst season of the last few for the 33-year-old, but with Tyler Clippard gone, Janssen will likely get any saves Storen doesn’t as of this writing.
Closer News Around the League
Two viable closers, veterans Rafael Soriano and Francisco Rodriguez, remain on the free-agent market with just a couple of weeks before Spring Training.
Soriano, as noted above, lost his job to Storen in September last season. Soriano’s final line of 2014 was 4-1, 32 saves, seven blown saves, 59 K, 3.19 ERA (3.08 FIP) and a 1.13 WHIP in 62 innings.
Rodriguez saved 44 games for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2014 in 49 chances. He struck out 73 batters in 68 innings and registered a 3.04 ERA (4.50 FIP) and a 0.99 WHIP.
Both Soriano, 35, and Rodriguez, 33, have been recently linked to the Blue Jays. Rodriguez has also been mentioned to possibly land back with the Brewers.
Check back next week when we’ll cover the National League Central. We welcome any comments and suggestions you have to make the report as useful as possible for your fantasy team’s needs.
Christopher Carelli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Christopher, check out his archive and follow him @Chris_Carelli. He is also the founder of Yankees Unscripted which is devoted to narrative-free coverage of the New York Yankees.
