Zack Wheeler’s 2015 season has ended before it began
It’s not easy to be a Mets fan. In fact, but for a few bright spots along the way, it really hasn’t been easy since 1987. The season-ending injury suffered by Zack Wheeler (torn UCL) is yet another devastating blow to the franchise (and its fans) who have endured way more than their fair share of injuries the past few seasons. Just when the Mets get back Matt Harvey who missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John surgery, Wheeler goes down before the 2015 campaign even begins.
Assuming Wheeler needs TJ surgery, which is almost certain, that will make five major league pitchers for the Mets who have had to undergo TJ surgery in the last 20 months (Harvey, Wheeler, Josh Edgin, Bobby Parnell and Jeremy Hefner (twice)). It’s questionable whether the core of the Mets pitching youth movement, Harvey, Jacob DeGrom, Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard and Stephen Matz, will ever all be promoted, healthy and pitching at the same time for the big league club before the ever-narrowing window closes and free agency takes its toll.
From a fantasy perspective, Wheeler’s torn UCL, which requires an average recovery time that will take him well into the 2016 season, further diminishes the pool of viable starters worthy of drafting. With Wheeler now joining Marcus Stroman, Mike Minor, Yu Darvish and (most likely) Cliff Lee on the list of pitchers gone for the season, starting pitchers not previously considered “draft worthy” or “on the bubble” will see a bump in ADP. Specifically, pitchers with FantasyPros expert consensus rankings in the 72-96 range with high ceilings should begin to see a spike in drafting percentages. Most notably, Tanner Roark and Taijuan Walker, despite the possibility of their not beginning the season in their rotations, Nathan Eovaldi, who has had a great spring for the Yankees thus far, and Carlos Martinez. Veterans CC Sabathia and Clay Buchholz, who can spot start for fantasy owners and help reach weekly or seasonal innings minimums, should also see a rise in drafting percentages due to the rash of SP injuries.
With respect to the immediate fantasy impact to Mets starters, with Wheeler now out of the picture for 2015, Dillon Gee almost assuredly moves into the fifth rotation spot. He falls behind Harvey, DeGrom, Jonathan Niese and Bartolo Colon. Gee is a significant downgrade from Wheeler, who was a potential 2015 breakout candidate, and remains largely fantasy irrelevant in 2015 mixed leagues. Bartolo Colon and Jonathan Niese, with ECRs of 85 and 87 respectively, will see a necessary bump in fantasy drafting percentages as discussed above, despite their low projected ceilings.
Most importantly, however, with the Wheeler injury, the Mets will need to consider an earlier promotion date for Noah Syndergaard if Gee is unable to produce as a starter in early 2015. While the Mets will likely wait out the Super 2 deadline, which falls sometime in June, before promoting Syndergaard, their original, assumed plan of a late-season promotion may now, out of necessity, be altered. As a result, Syndergaard should see more time with the big league club in 2015. He now becomes a solid late-round draft pick in all but shallow (10 teams or fewer) mixed leagues. Additionally, the Edgin injury combined with Wheeler’s UCL tear also potentially opens the door for LHP Stephen Matz’s promotion. Matz, who is expected to begin the season in the Triple-A Las Vegas rotation, may also see time with the big league club in 2015. As such, Matz should be on all fantasy owners’ radars as a mid-to-late season call-up, whether he joins the Mets’ bullpen or rotation to replace an injured or lackluster SP. Dynasty league owners should already be widely drafting and rostering both Syndergaard and Matz, especially since Edgin and Wheeler are gone until (potentially) the middle of 2016.
Finally, with Gee essentially replacing Wheeler in the Mets’ rotation, don’t forget the impact it may have on the Mets bullpen arms. They may see additional work resulting from starts that don’t chew up as many innings. From a fantasy perspective, this may mean more work for the two most viable fantasy arms in the Mets’ bullpen, Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia. Before Bobby Parnell returns in late April/early May, Familia may see more work bridging leads from the 7th to the 9th inning. Additionally, Mejia may be called upon to get saves of 1+ innings early in the season. Both situations could tax arms and result in less effectiveness for both pitchers later in the year when the innings start to mount and take their toll.
Nicky Tapas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicky, check out his archive and follow him @nickytapas71.
