How many future stars will we be drafted Thursday?

The NBA has always been a star-driven league. When the league began in the late 1940s, George Mikan was the headliner for the Minneapolis Lakers. Towards the end of ‘50s and through the ‘60s, Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain became the faces of the league. The ‘70s ushered in a tall, lanky superstar named Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as it said goodbye to luminaries such as Jerry West and Elgin Baylor. The ‘80s brought us the epic rivalry between Magic Johnson and Larry Bird while the 90s were owned by Michael Jordan. Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan lorded over the ‘00s, and LeBron James is currently ruling over the teens, appearing in all but one Finals so far this decade.

It is no surprise that stars predominantly enter the league through the annual draft. With the NBA draft coming up on June 25, just how many future “stars” should expect to hear their name called on draft night?  After analyzing the last two eras of the draft over an 18-year span (the “high school” era of 1995-2006 and the “one and done” era from 2007-2012), we can expect an average of three “stars” to hear their names called.

How do we define “stars?”

The methodology used in determining “star” players is a simple four-point system, much like a grade point average.  The following table classifies players from “superstars” to “busts.” The table below shows the 2007 draft where players are given points (zero to four) based on certain sets of criteria.  We define “stars” as grading with either a “B” or an “A.” The draft pick used to select the player is after their name.

How many drafted players become “stars?”

After grading the nearly 1,100 players drafted from 1995-2012, we find that only five percent of all drafted players become “stars.” This group of players certainly is elite.

We see in the pie chart below that while five percent of drafted players become “stars,” only 23% become starters.  The highest proportion of drafted players are busts, either lasting less than three years in the league or averaging less than ten minutes of playing time per game over the course of their career.  Sadly, nearly 80% of all drafted players do not reach the level of “starter,” an indication that the draft yields far more “misses” than “hits.”

Surprisingly, the extra year of college or pro ball overseas due to the “one and done” rule has had no impact on this statistic. From 2007-2012, only four percent of all drafted players have become “stars,” compared to eight percent of drafted players in the 1995-2006 drafts who became stars. This is surprising because the league’s main argument for implementing the rule was to help teams improve their drafts by giving them an opportunity to see prospects play games on a higher level than merely high school. However, the extra year doesn’t appear to have the desired impact on the number of stars selected. Maybe playing two or three years in college (or in overseas pro leagues) may help high school players develop into solid NBA players down the road. But it appears that only playing one year after high school does not have an impact on whether a player will become a “star.”

To summarize, we know only five percent of drafted players over the past 18 years have developed into stars, while only 23% of all drafted players developed into starters. Most drafted players end up as either busts or mere role-players. In the next article previewing the upcoming draft, we’ll dig deeper to determine which picks historically have had the highest likelihood of developing into “stars.”

Brian Dowdy is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @BDiddy76.