Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate and today’s NBA DFS picks. It’s been a fun playoffs so far, and we have finally reached an elimination game for the Western Conference Finals.
For DFS, you always have to stay in tune with news, injuries and lineup announcements. It’s a bit less important on a showdown playoff slate, but it’s still necessary, as the Jalen Williams news will sway a lot of projections on the Oklahoma City side.
Every player is an option today, so you’ll have to get creative and risky, especially in GPPs. In the end, it’s about making the right decisions, and that’s what I’m here for. Let’s get to the best DFS plays of the slate.
Generally speaking, you want to build lineups based on narrative. If you think the Spurs will bounce back and stay alive, there are a lot of role players who are going to end up being optimal options. But the same goes for if you think the Thunder simply take care of business, and Jared McCain or Alex Caruso go off. Build your lineups accordingly based on different ways the game can go.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate and today’s NBA DFS picks. It’s been a fun playoffs so far, and we have finally reached an elimination game for the Western Conference Finals.
For DFS, you always have to stay in tune with news, injuries and lineup announcements. It’s a bit less important on a showdown playoff slate, but it’s still necessary, as the Jalen Williams news will sway a lot of projections on the Oklahoma City side.
Every player is an option today, so you’ll have to get creative and risky, especially in GPPs. In the end, it’s about making the right decisions, and that’s what I’m here for. Let’s get to the best DFS plays of the slate.
Generally speaking, you want to build lineups based on narrative. If you think the Spurs will bounce back and stay alive, there are a lot of role players who are going to end up being optimal options. But the same goes for if you think the Thunder simply take care of business, and Jared McCain or Alex Caruso go off. Build your lineups accordingly based on different ways the game can go.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Captain/MVP Plays
- DraftKings: $19,200
- FanDuel: $27,300
If there’s one thing I’m predicting today, it’s that we might see a career-high usage rate out of Victor Wembanyama, along with 40+ minutes of playing time. All the coachespeak and player interviews seem pretty much in line with, “give Wembanyama the ball and let him cook.” Maybe not that exact phrasing, but a similar sentiment.
In the Game 4 win, Wembanyama dominated with a 40% usage rate as the Thunder lost by 20 points. Building your roster around a similar game is not one I expect many people to do. Of course, Wembanyama will be highly rostered, and I’m not reinventing the wheel by saying you should roster him, but I still expect him to be highly rostered across the board.
- DraftKings: $11,100
- FanDuel: $12,300
I’m going to zag a bit here because it’s a showdown playoff slate, and I imagine most of you are trying to win GPPs, not double-ups or beat someone in a head-to-head. Obviously, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is your next click here. He and Victor Wembanyama will eat up a lot of captain rostership, and rightfully so. But someone else I’m in on tonight is De’Aaron Fox.
It seems there’s lingering concern about Fox’s ankle, but after playing 30+ minutes in three straight games, I’m confident he will be out there for around 35 minutes, if not more. Mitch Johnson must pull out all the stops if he expects to push this series to Game 7. Fox is a much-needed presence for the Spurs’ success.
You can get leverage off Fox with lower rostership and save some coin, while he still projects as a top-five option for tonight.
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $8,000
- FanDuel: $7,400
With Ajay Mitchell out and Jalen Williams questionable, there’s still a lot that can sway one way or the other in how rostership lines up for Oklahoma City. Assuming Williams is in, a lot of the role players’ projections will take a big hit, even if Williams isn’t 100%.
Someone who I’m confident will put up numbers either way is Chet Holmgren. The former number one overall pick hasn’t exactly been consistent, but after scoring 35 fantasy points last time out, I’m going right back to the well, projecting him over 30 fantasy points tonight.
The Thunder don’t want to go back to Oklahoma City for Game 7, so I expect a bit more run from their best players, including Holmgren. Even with the interior presence of Victor Wembanyama, Holmgren is capable of scoring at all three levels and getting to a double-double.
- DraftKings: $4,800
- FanDuel: $3,400
With De’Aaron Fox back to full rotation minutes, we’ve seen a step back for Dylan Harper, failing to go over 20 fantasy points in either of his last four games. But it’s the series opener 62-point outing that is still living rent-free in my head.
That is the ceiling we are chasing here for GPPs, and we are seeing very little respective rostership on Harper that would make him quite the option if he could surprise. Obviously, I don’t expect him to get to 60 fantasy points again, but someone from the Spurs is going to get hot. Even if Harper scores over 30 fantasy points, that could be enough to see him finish in the optimal lineup.
Between Harper and Julian Champagnie, I will be overweight on both Spurs role players.
NBA DFS GPP Plays
- DraftKings: $6,200
- FanDuel: $4,800
You have to believe I’m going back to Mr. Dependable tonight in Game 6. Despite coming off the bench, Alex Caruso has been vital to the Thunder’s success. After scoring 22 points in 28 minutes last time out for 40 fantasy points, I expect him to get plenty of run tonight again.
Among Thunder role players, Caruso is the clear option to me. He’s gone over 27 fantasy points in four of the five games so far in this series. Hopefully, the eight-point outing in Game 4, where everyone on the Thunder struggled, will keep people from rostering him too much.
- DraftKings: $5,800
- FanDuel: $5,600
Assuming Jalen Williams plays, I expect Isaiah Hartenstein to get a big drop in rostership.
But we’re chasing the ceiling here, and to do that, you have to get leverage on other lineups. Hartenstein is coming off a solid performance in which he played 31 minutes and scored nearly 40 fantasy points.
You could go with someone like Luguentz Dort, but we’ve rarely seen him ascend past 20 fantasy points. Even at his lower price tag, it’s hard to see him end up in the optimal lineup.
Hartenstein, meanwhile, has tallied a double-double in two out of five games so far in this series, and it is well within his capacity to do so again tonight.
