Matt Forte was a PPR darling once again in 2014

In PPR leagues, the seemingly most valuable statistic is the target rate of your receivers. Simply put, targets mean opportunities and opportunities mean points; easy points for receptions and opportunities for touchdowns. If you have never looked at a chart comparing target leaders of the last couple of years, you might be shocked to know Pierre Garcon led the league in 2013 with 184 targets and the Bills’ Stevie Johnson had back-to-back top 10 target seasons. Targets are everything in fantasy football. Especially if you are in a PPR league.

While calculating expected targets for players is a bit of luck mixed in with observing annual numbers, it seems like there are at least five factors that come into play when projecting which players are due for regression.

• Emergence/Health of Teammate(s): Some of the players listed have had teammates added through free agency, the draft, or the health of another significant target monster restored which will certainly affect their usage.

• Unsustainable Target Rate: A receiver whose target rate was way above their career norm is due to regress towards their annual average. Usually, this is due to injuries to other significant starters. For example, Calvin Johnson’s injury inconsistencies led to Golden Tate’s career-high 142 targets, which we will certainly project a regression in 2015.

• Quarterback Situation: We all know a young quarterback helps tight ends and scares the living daylights out of receivers coming across the middle of the field. Anyone will tell you that even productive WRs with bad QBs can turn into ineffective WRs in just one season. Ask Eric Decker.

• Offensive Coordinator Mindset: The type of offense dictates targets. For example, a Marc Trestman offense is known for screens and dumps to the running back (Justin Forsett), deep shots to a big wideout (Breshad Perriman), and consistently finding the tight end between the hashes (Maxx Williams). You can tell I’m high on Baltimore players this year. Or an X-receiver led by offensive coordinators like Kyle Shanahan (Atlanta), Norv Turner (Minnesota), or Sean McVay (Washington) will receive a high volume of targets.

• The Cliff: A running back on the wrong side of 30, a receiver without any type of separation speed, or a tight end overtaken in the depth chart is in danger of a fantasy cliff. People get old.

Top RB Candidates for Target Regression

• Matt Forte (2014 Targets: 130)
  Forte’s career high in targets is more of a testament to Jay Cutler’s ineptitude and Marc Trestman’s dink-and-dunk offense. His previous career high was 94, and he averaged 75 per season before 2014. There are many warning signs of Forte trending downward. His rushing average dipped below 4.0 yards per carry, Trestman is now in Baltimore, Forte’s had at least 250 touches in all seven of his pro seasons, and he turns 30 in December. Although he’s been nothing but solid and probably won many owners titles in PPR leagues last year, his cliff could come fast. I’m betting on south of 90 targets. This slides Forte further down in the RB1 conversation.
  Projected 2015 Targets: 84

• Fred Jackson– (2014 Targets: 90)
  Jackson is ancient in terms of able-bodied RBs, as he turned 34 and averaged 3.5 yards per carry last year. However, he’s always had excellent pass-catching skills and been a reliable PPR option even on the backside of his career. With LeSean McCoy acquired in the offseason and inked to a large contract, Jackson will be relegated to second fiddle in the running game. Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown will also be in the mix. Although McCoy was relatively ineffective last year as a receiver, don’t expect Jackson to get more than 7-10 touches per game. Jackson is a glorified handcuff this year with late-round PPR value.
  Projected 2015 Targets: 65

• DeMarco Murray (2014 Targets: 64)
  Murray’s league-leading 1,845 yards rushing behind Dallas’ stellar offensive line is what most people remember from one of last year’s fantasy MVPs. However, he was quite an effective pass catcher with 57 catches on 64 targets for 416 yards. That was the fifth most targets among RBs. Moving on to Philadelphia and Chip Kelly’s regime, Murray will team with newly-signed Ryan Mathews and scatback Darren Sproles to share the pass-catching duties. LeSean McCoy, in the full-time role last year in Kelly’s quick-hitting offense, had only 37 targets. Murray was paid top dollar for his down-hill running style and will be kept fresh throughout the year. He’s still a top 10 running back, just don’t expect as much in the passing game.
  Projected 2015 Targets: 47

• Marcel Reece (2014 Targets: 59)
  Poor Marcel. In the midst of the Oakland RB debacle that has been MJD and DMC, he solidified his niche as the team’s primary passing-down back the last couple of years. Last year, he had as many targets as bigger names Jamaal Charles, Justin Forsett, and Giovani Bernard. After Latavius Murray’s breakthrough at the end of the year, the Oakland front office decided to sign the top third-down back on the market and someone with loads of PPR potential in Roy Helu Jr. Trent Richardson was also signed to unfortunately take up more roster space. Reece’s fantasy value is basically toast.
  Projected 2015 Targets: 15

• Joique Bell (2014 Targets: 52)
  In PPR scoring last year, Bell finished 13th among RBs, yet he seems to be a forgotten man. After an 11-target game in Week 2, he never finished above 6 the rest of the year. The drafting of Nebraska RB Ameer Abdullah has many fantasy experts already giving Bell the backseat in Detroit’s running back rotation. He had offseason knee and Achilles surgery but is expected to get the majority of goal-line carries in 2015. However, in terms of PPR leagues, his receiving value will most likely be very minimal as Theo Riddick and Abdullah will gain the bulk of targets on passing downs. Bell is at best a low-end RB2 or valuable FLEX option, but his touches will look much different with Abdullah on board.
  Projected 2015 Targets: 36

Kyle Borgognoni is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @kyle_borg.