Skip to main content

Fantasy Football: WR PPR Target Regression

There are too many mouths to feed in Indy for T.Y. to see the same number of targets in 2015

There are too many mouths to feed in Indy for T.Y. to see the same number of targets in 2015

In the first part of this series on analyzing target regression, we looked at five RBs who we should expect to have a lower amount of targets in the 2015 season. Now, we turn to the WRs.

In review, we said there are at least five factors that we must consider in projecting target totals:

1. Emergence/Health of Teammate(s)

2. Unsustainable Target Rate

3. Quarterback Situation

4. Offensive Coordinator Mindset

5. The Cliff

Note: We must remember that fantasy football comes down to value. In other words, T.Y. Hilton is certainly an astounding player and a great wide receiver to watch on Sundays. But there are other players with similar skill sets and target rates being drafted at least 2 or 3 rounds later. Drafting players is about finding value and that means finding those on the ascension rather than expected regression.

FantasyPros Draft Wizard

Top WR Candidates for Target Regression

T.Y. Hilton – Colts (2014 Targets: 132)
Hilton was an absolute beast for anyone who drafted him last year, playing like a WR1. He caught 83 balls for 1,342 yards and 7 TDs. The diminutive speedster (5’9″) is entering the final year of his rookie deal and there has been much speculation in regards to the Colts’ long-term plans and the money he’s due. There’s also been a flurry of off-season development after signing veteran Andre Johnson and drafting a Hilton clone in Phillip Dorsett. It seems for Andrew Luck, there will be many mouths to feed at the table in 2015 including second-year man Donte Moncrief, as well as TEs Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. Hilton’s projected target rate in 2015 is in no way a reflection of his skill set; I would just bet against him repeating the same numbers and would prefer WRs with higher upside, as I think Hilton has reached his ceiling. I’d take Jarvis Landry or Martavis Bryant a couple rounds later.
Projected 2015 Targets: 116

Golden Tate – Lions (2014 Targets: 142)
Tate’s 2014 campaign finished with a remarkable 99 catches for 1,331 yards. During the four games in which Calvin Johnson played fewer than half the snaps, Tate stole the show, totaling 483 yards and three scores and ranking as fantasy’s No. 3 WR in that span. However, in the other 12 games, he finished at a pedestrian 32nd at the position. His skill set lends him to be a perfect, competitive complement to Megatron. However, Matthew Stafford seemed to take a step back in terms of accuracy and decision-making last year and Tate’s value (much like Hilton’s) is as high as I think it can go. So instead of expecting another year of high volume, realize that Tate’s 142 targets are a thing of the past and you need to draft accordingly. Players with similar expected volume, like Jacksonville’s Allen Robinson, are going 4 or 5 rounds later than Tate.
Projected 2015 Targets: 110

Rueben Randle – Giants (2014 Targets: 127)
Randle was drafted by many in 2014 in hopes of uncorking the potential they saw as a high volume receiver. Thanks to an injury to Victor Cruz which led to a ton of early-season targets and a respectable finish to the season, Randle had a decent fantasy showing in 2014 (No. 38 WR). However, those 127 targets are deceiving as he managed only three touchdowns and was atrocious at converting end zone targets. His 17 percent conversion rate ranked next to last among those with 12 such looks. He simply does not have the separation speed, nor the ability to make big plays that begs the same targets as last year. The Giants and Eli Manning run the highest percentage of three-WR sets in the league, but Randle clearly is down the totem-pole in targets behind the otherworldly Odell Beckham Jr., a healthy Victor Cruz and TE Larry Donnell. Randle might also face stiff competition from second-year WR Corey Washington. Don’t expect more than the occasional garbage time TD and a boatload of disappointment if you’re wanting more than a WR4.
Projected 2015 Targets: 69

Anquan Boldin – 49ers (2014 Targets: 130)
It’s 2015… and the clock is still ticking on Boldin’s decline, a process many fantasy experts have predicted year in and year out. Surprisingly, even at the tender age of 34, he was on the field 90 percent of the 49ers’ offensive snaps last season — his highest total since 2010. Boldin has always been a dependable possession receiver and we should not expect his role in the offense to change much. Torrey Smith comes over from Baltimore as the deep threat as the enigmatic Michael Crabtree was shown the door. I expect Vernon Davis’ fantasy pulse to be resurrected this year as Colin Kaepernick transitions from the Frank Gore ground and pound years. I hate being “the boy who cried wolf”, but I think this is the year I completely stay away from this veteran. Someone in your league will be willingly to draft him for reasons of name recognition only. Take a flyer on a rookie such as Miami’s DeVante Parker or shoot for a bounce-back year from Washington’s Pierre Garcon.Projected 2015 Targets: 109

Kendall Wright – Titans (2014 Targets: 93)
Although Wright scored a respectable six TDs in 2014, he still managed to underwhelm and disappoint fantasy owners hoping for a WR2/3. Wright missed a pair of games due to injury and finished with a line of 57-715, a regression from 2014’s campaign of 94-1,079. His touchdown totals were the only thing holding his fantasy value on life support. He also was not targeted regularly in the end zone (three times) which is another testament to his unlucky TD rate. With rookie QB Marcus Mariota under center, do not expect Wright to be a significant source of TDs. There’s a full house in Tennessee with rookie Dorial Green-Beckham becoming an end zone matchup nightmare, the signing of possession receiver Harry Douglas, veteran Hakeem Nicks, and wing-man Justin Hunter. Wright’s fantasy value is extremely low and you should not expect results that garner consideration in your starting lineup. Check out Arizona second-year WR John Brown who is being drafted with a similar ADP.
Projected 2015 Targets: 84

Kyle Borgognoni is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @kyle_borg.

More Articles

3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

fp-headshot by Anthony Corrente | 2 min read
Fantasy Football Mock Draft: FFPC Best Ball Picks (2024)

Fantasy Football Mock Draft: FFPC Best Ball Picks (2024)

fp-headshot by Tom Strachan | 3 min read
3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid: Tight Ends (2024)

3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid: Tight Ends (2024)

fp-headshot by Mike Fanelli | 2 min read
RB3s with RB1 Potential (2024 Fantasy Football)

RB3s with RB1 Potential (2024 Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by TJ Horgan | 3 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

3 min read

3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

Next Up - 3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

Next Article