According to Keith Kraska, C.J. Anderson might be a lot better than you think
Based on current rankings and average draft position, there seems to be a clear top tier of running backs. The order varies within this tier, but most charts begin with the quartet of Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson. Some include Marshawn Lynch as a fifth before overall rankings and drafts veer into wide receivers.
After that, the position gets a little muddled. A running back in the second tier can be found anywhere from the late first round to late second round of drafts. Opinions vary widely on guys like LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster, Matt Forte and DeMarco Murray.
But there’s one runner caught up in that group who I think stands above the rest, and whose 2015 numbers have a good chance of landing among the first tier – C.J. Anderson.
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It may be difficult to accept Anderson as an elite fantasy back because he isn’t quite “proven” yet. At this time last year, he was third on the depth chart on his own team. But he rose to the top, and you want the starting running back of the Denver Broncos on your team.
The first place to look for stud fantasy RBs is elite offenses. That’s why Lacy is a first-tier lock, and why Frank Gore is expected to have a career renaissance at age 32. It’s a simple concept: The better offense you’re on, the greater chance you have of scoring touchdowns, the lifeblood of fantasy football.
So why isn’t Anderson on par with Lacy? There are gaps in talent, pedigree and experience, to be sure. Lacy is a 230-pound relentless tank who was drafted in the second round out of Alabama. Anderson is a few inches shorter, was undrafted out of Cal and didn’t become Denver’s top back until midway through last season. But oh, what he did when he got that chance…
From Week 10 on, Anderson ran for 767 yards (4.7 per carry) and eight touchdowns. These numbers were not inflated by big plays. Anderson’s longest run of the season was only 27 yards.
He doesn’t lose any value in PPR, either. He caught 30 passes in those eight games, a pace that would have been fourth among running backs all season (in comparison, Lacy had 42 all year). In two of those games, he was targeted 10 times and caught eight of them, and he had six catches in Denver’s playoff loss.
In standard fantasy leagues, he scored at least 20 fantasy points in five of those eight weeks, with another performance in that span worth 19 points. He averaged 20.1 points in that span, second only to Bell.
Can he keep it up? What’s different from last season? The two biggest changes in Denver are in Anderson’s favor.
Julius Thomas is gone. Over the past two seasons, he’s scored 11 touchdowns from inside the 10. Anyone think Owen Daniels, who’s going on 33 and hasn’t played 16 games since 2008, will just pick up where Orange Julius left off? Me neither, so that’s less competition near the goal line for Anderson.
The bigger development is new coach Gary Kubiak, whose zone-blocking scheme is a perfect fit for Anderson. Plus, Kubiak’s offenses have a history of getting big seasons out of similarly unheralded backs like Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns and Justin Forsett last year. Oh, and let’s not forget Arian Foster.
Anderson is the biggest beneficiary of Peyton Manning’s decline, too. Over the final five weeks of the season, Anderson accounted for more touchdowns than Manning did. With Manning now 39 years old, the offense will want to run the ball more. Manning himself often checks into a run, and Kubiak is just the coach for that. However, with Manning throwing to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, the passing game will still be scary enough to give the RBs plenty of room and get Anderson to the goal line a lot. That paradox presents a best-case scenario for him.
Some fantasy owners may be nervous over Montee Ball getting first-team reps in OTAs. Ball began last season as the starter before tearing his groin in Week 4. Ball didn’t tear up the field up before that, though, averaging 3.4 yards a carry with one touchdown. Ronnie Hillman is still around as well, and he was “Mr. October” in the backfield last year, with 347 yards (4.8 yards per carry) from Weeks 4 to 7.
They illustrate the point that any back lined up behind Manning will put up numbers, but that wasn’t the only reason Anderson did so well. He may have inherited the job because of injuries, but he went on to prove that he was the best back all along. Pro Football Focus rated him as its fourth-best running back for all of 2014, behind Bell, Lynch and Murray. He graded third in the league in pure rushing, and fourth in elusive rating. He passed the eyeball test.
Anderson is the best runner, receiver and blocker in the Denver backfield. It’s understandable that a new coaching staff would want to see what they have in all their backs, but Anderson earned the trust of the previous regime and, perhaps most importantly, Manning.
He’s one of the best running backs in the league featured in one of the best offenses. He gets the goal line carries, and he gets receptions. And yet, he is falling into the second round in some drafts? What? If you’re drafting anywhere near the first turn, there’s no excuse not to grab him – unless someone reaches for him among the top five, which I wouldn’t blame anyone for doing. I don’t know if I’d take him first overall, like this prominent pundit, but I have Anderson fifth on my board, ahead of Lynch.
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Keith Kraska is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Keith, check out his archive.
