How will Jimmy Graham’s arrival impact the Seahawks’ offense?
Here’s the latest in our team preview series, a look at the 2015 Seattle Seahawks.
The 2014 Seattle Seahawks came within a single play of winning the Super Bowl. However, they did so as a team that did not offer more than a few clear options for fantasy owners, namely Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks D/ST. The Seahawks offseason included very little turnover, save for a trade for star TE Jimmy Graham. After wading through a number of serious contract negotiations, most notably locking up Wilson to be a franchise quarterback for four more seasons, are these Seahawks poised to be different? Don’t hold your breath.
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Major Additions: TE Jimmy Graham, CB Cary Williams
Major Departures: C Max Unger, CB Byron Maxwell, DT Tony McDaniel
Quarterback
Wilson put together a wildly successful breakout fantasy season in 2014, finishing third in total fantasy points despite being at the helm of a run-heavy offense. Wilson’s ability to run for yards and TDs, extend plays and find players for long gains while avoiding turnovers and injuries makes him a star fantasy option. This season Wilson is being selected third among QBs behind Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, a spot that seems reasonable since Wilson has a rather high floor as a player. It appears likely that the Seahawks will open up the passing game a bit more this season, with the addition of Jimmy Graham and the drafting of WR Tyler Lockett. Just don’t expect Seattle to move too far from their power running and read option roots.
Seattle passed the ball 46.4% of the time in 2014, the least in the NFL. Jimmy Graham fits well into the Seahawks’ preferred style of throwing the ball, which relies heavily on crossing routes, seam routes and play action. Wilson’s red zone efficiency is likely to increase, as Graham will provide the best target the Seahawks have had since drafting Wilson. After completing less than 50% of his red zone passes in 2014, the addition of Graham will assuredly create more passing TDs. Plus, it will improve the team’s subpar third-down conversion rate, helping to extend drives. According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson excelled on intermediate to deeper passes, with grades of 7.6, 6.6 and 3.1 on passes 11-20, 21-30 and 31-40 yards, respectively. One of the Seahawks’ favorite plays involves a play action power run to the left. It’s then followed by a rollout to the right and a deep pass on a corner route that has been run by TE Luke Willson with great success. Graham will fit in well here.
Don’t buy into any hype of the Seahawks becoming a pass-heavy team. What they will be is more effective when they do choose to pass, which is still useful for owners. Russell Wilson is a great fantasy option whose positional ADP is in line with where he should be taken, though his ceiling is not as high as that of Luck or Rodgers. Do not feel compelled to reach for Wilson, as he is less certain to be elite than those first two QBs and is going as high as the middle of the second round in some leagues. However, if he is available in the late third round or beyond, owners should feel good about the Seahawks’ QB leading their team.
Running Back
The Seahawks have been feeding “Beast Mode” for five years now and have ridden Marshawn Lynch through the most successful stretch of football in the franchise’s 40-year history. Currently being taken fifth overall, Lynch is expected to continue to produce well for fantasy owners. Plus, he’s in position to combine a substantial three-down usage rate with a high number of goal-line touches (in spite of a certain fateful play call last February). While the Seahawks may pass a bit more and may have slightly poorer offensive line performance this season, they should still be leading in many games, and will use Beast Mode frequently all year long. Last season Lynch led the NFL in TDs with 14 and was second in DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement), behind only DeMarco Murray. Even if Lynch declines, he should still be a top-tier RB in 2015
As Lynch turns 29, having averaged 326.3 touches per year over the last four seasons, there are many concerns that the bruising style he runs with will finally wear him down this season. While he has not missed a game in the last three seasons, several times he has missed possessions or even quarters or halves seeking treatment for chronic back spasms. According to Coach Pete Carroll, “It’s an ongoing issue for him for years, It’s something we’re always monitoring.” If Lynch were to miss time, Robert Turbin would likely receive the majority of the carries, and is a player capable of hitting a hole and running forward with power, if little else.
The problem is that Seattle’s offensive line, which was capable but not overpowering last season, lost starting C Max Unger and LG James Carpenter in the offseason. While Lynch has the strength and wiggle to make the first man miss, Turbin has not exhibited much skill in that regard. Christine Michael was a popular sleeper selection last year who remained deep in slumber, but he should see his role increase this season. Michael is quicker and more explosive than Turbin, with much more similarity to Lynch’s style. A penchant for fumbles and mental mistakes have held back the third-year RB, but the coaching staff says he is doing all the right things so far this preseason and may have a role in kick return. If Michael impresses in extended preseason opportunities, he should be the more valuable handcuff to Lynch, but he will have to perform.
Wide Receiver
The group that took offense to being called “pedestrian” two years ago has provided decent value for the Seahawks but has been a wasteland for fantasy owners over the last three seasons. Very little indicates that will change this season. Doug Baldwin is the team’s No. 1 option as a true WR and was 44th in the league last season in fantasy points. The addition of Jimmy Graham is likely to create more space for Baldwin, and Jermaine Kearse, but the volume of passing attempts just isn’t there for any of the Seattle receivers to be worth starting consistently. Kearse physically looks like a No. 1 receiver and shows flashes, but was only targeted 67 times in 2014. Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson are two exciting players who have been drafted this year and last year, respectively, but neither seems poised to have a significant fantasy impact in 2015. Lockett is a skilled slot receiver who could replace Golden Tate as both a shifty receiver and punt returner, but his fantasy relevance is a year or two away. Richardson is returning from an ACL tear suffered in the playoffs last year, and is likely to start the year on the PUP list. Chris Matthews made a big impression in the Super Bowl, but he is currently fighting for a roster spot. He likely won’t see significant playing time until he shows more consistency, particularly early in the season.
If you are going to roster a Seahawks receiver, make it Baldwin, whose 98 targets led the team last year, but at his positional ADP of 56, there are better lottery tickets to buy.
Tight End
While the recent quotes about Jimmy Graham blocking 75% of the time are likely exaggerations, it is true that Graham will be asked to do far more blocking than he did in New Orleans, and will spend less time seeing balls lobbed up his direction. His arrival, and the fact that the Seahawks traded one of the best run-blocking interior linemen in the league to get him, seems to indicate that Pete Carroll is interested in throwing the ball with a bit more frequency. Barring the possibility that acquiring the 6’7 TE to stay in and block is part of an elaborate plan to prove how much Russell Wilson’s height doesn’t matter, Seattle is going to use Graham as a focal point of their offense more than any other receiving option in the last few years.
Seattle likely will rely on Graham as a red zone and third down threat first and foremost, and 10+ TD receptions is not out of the question. The drawback for Graham’s value is while the efficiency may rise, the volume will shrink drastically. Last year, Graham, who is currently No. 2 in positional ADP and No. 27 overall, was targeted 124 times, second most in the NFL for TEs. That would be 26 more targets than Doug Baldwin, the Seahawks’ leader in targets from last season, and 53 more than the number of passes thrown to all Seahawks TEs last year combined. The TDs will probably be there, and Graham will be a solid contributor, but his yards are likely to decline significantly, and he is clearly in the second tier at his position behind Rob Gronkowski.
Team D/ST
The Seahawks defense comes into 2015 ranked first and sporting an overall ADP of 62. The first of these numbers is reasonable, as the Super Bowl runners-up returned all of their star players and replaced CB Byron Maxwell with Cary Williams, who is expected to perform capably in the same role. The overall ADP, however, is simply too high. No matter how good the defense, the fifth or sixth round is probably a reach.
There are causes for concern in Seattle, with the depth behind the stars evaporating to provide cap space for extensions for the top players at most positions. Earl Thomas is coming off of shoulder surgery, but is expected to be available for the start of the season. Kam Chancellor is currently still holding out for a restructuring of his contract which seems unlikely to continue into the season but has not shown any signs of progress yet. The defensive line will be a bit of a question mark, even with stalwarts Michael Bennett and Chris Avril providing excellent pressure on outside. Why? Because a number of players are returning from injury or have little experience are being expected to step up at DT. The linebackers, led by MLB Bobby Wagner, should be excellent, and if Seattle avoids many major injuries, they should be a top-level defense.
The Seahawks matchup this year against the NFC North and AFC North, which are both expected to be tough, top to bottom. Combined with their matchups against the Cowboys and Panthers, there will likely be some strong tests for the team’s defense. The NFC West is likely to be strong defensively top to bottom, but the Rams and 49ers face significant uncertainty offensively, and Arizona will be relying on Carson Palmer returning from a torn ACL. Therefore, the “Legion of Boom” may have plenty to feast upon. This is still the best defense in football and, until they prove otherwise, they should be nearly matchup-proof.
Kicker
Steven Hauschka is projected to be the No. 2 overall K this season and went 31-37 last season on FGA. The Seahawks and Pete Carroll have historically been conservative on fourth downs, and Hauschka has been steady kicking in Seattle’s rainy weather. Expect him to be worth starting.
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John Trupin is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from John, check out his archive and follow him @troopdogg24.
