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Fantasy Outlook: Russell Wilson

Fantasy Outlook: Russell Wilson
How will the Seahawks' run-heavy offense affect Russell Wilson this year?

How will the Seahawks’ run-heavy offense affect Russell Wilson this year?

Russell Wilson’s breakout fantasy season in 2014 was a huge boon for owners who snagged him as a mid-late round flier and watched him soar to finish as the third overall QB in fantasy. This year finding such a deal on the Seahawks’ signal caller will be tough, as Wilson is projected to be the third overall QB again and has an overall ADP of No. 32 overall. The majority of Wilson’s value has come from his excellent rushing totals, but many have high hopes for an improvement in the passing game along with more commitment to it after Seattle added TE Jimmy Graham. As previously detailed, owners should be wary, as the Seahawks have had immense success with a run-heavy scheme that supports their thumping defense. Graham’s arrival is positive for Wilson’s fantasy production, but the chances are high that he is not worth the pick required to acquire him.

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Adding Graham

The following image from Pro Football Reference is hard on the eyes, but sometimes reality is unpleasant.

<a href='http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/players/russell-wilson.php' class='fp-player-link fp-id-11180' target='_blank'>Russell Wilson</a> Career Passing Targets

These are the top 20 receivers by receptions for the Seahawks during Wilson’s career. Doug Baldwin is a solid (probably underrated) receiver. His skills would likely translate into being a highly effective second or third receiver in a more pass happy offense, similar to Golden Tate in Detroit. The fact that Wilson’s best two targets in his career have likely been Baldwin and Tate makes his fantasy success even more impressive. His newest target, Jimmy Graham, has been slightly more impressive than any of Wilson’s former or current teammates during that same period.

<a href='http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/players/jimmy-graham.php' class='fp-player-link fp-id-9712' target='_blank'>Jimmy Graham</a> 2012-2014

There are some caveats that must be applied to this data. New Orleans’ pass-happy offense generated significantly more opportunities than Seattle’s, so it is natural that Graham has more counting stats than any of the Seahawks’ receivers.

What is important to Wilson’s value this year will be whether Graham’s arrival results in a sea change in the Seahawks’ offensive strategy (unlikely), or if he just fits in as a red zone and third-down target (more likely). It seems reasonable to expect Wilson’s passing attempts to rise this year. However, last year’s career-high of 452 (out of the Seahawks’ 454 total PAs) placed dead last in the NFL for total team passing attempts. Wilson’s efficiency and passing touchdowns are likely to rise. But it is possible his overall fantasy value may not increase as much since those yards and TDs may come at the expense of Wilson’s rushing totals.

Wilson On the Run

Over the last three seasons, Wilson’s rushing abilities have provided the Seahawks and fantasy owners with a safety valve that has helped mask an offense line built much more for zone-run blocking than pass protection. Trading away C Max Unger brought Graham, but it also further weakened the already shaky offensive line. Second-year lineman Justin Britt appears to be moving inside to RG, away from RT where he was a disaster in pass protection in 2014. His replacement and hero of the NFC Championship, Garry Gilliam, would be hard pressed to be less effective, but the fact that Seattle is still unsettled at multiple positions does not inspire confidence.

Since 1970, only four QBs have had over 90 rushing attempts in a season more than three times – Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Randall Cunningham and Russell Wilson. Seattle executes designed run plays for Wilson, but not as many as Carolina sends Newton on. Wilson’s style of running is more similar to that of Vick. He scrambles on designed passes for many his rushing yards, and their fumble totals are worryingly similar (Vick has 0.70 per game for his career, Wilson has 0.65). Where Wilson and Vick differ are in their decision making, though. Wilson’s seven interceptions, 63.1% completion percentage and 16 games played are all better than any season in which Vick started more than 10 games.

Wilson has been extremely skilled in avoiding injury throughout his career, perhaps aided by magical water, but will be tested thoroughly this season by his subpar line. His scrambling may lead to around 2014’s totals. Unfortunately, if Wilson doesn’t accrue the rushing TDs he notched last year, his value will slip significantly, especially since many leagues give six points for rushing TDs vs. four for passing TDs.

Conclusion

Wilson’s passing yardage should grow marginally, but as long as Marshawn Lynch is still running, this offense will be tilted at least slightly towards the ground game. Six touchdowns on the ground in 2014 was Wilson’s career-high, which helped supplant his disappointing 20 passing TDs. Expect the first number to drop to around four, but see growth in passing TDs. Wilson has a high floor, but his offense’s style will hold down his ceiling far further than Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers with Jordy Nelson’s injury. If Wilson falls into the fourth round, he is a reasonable value and should be reliable. But unless you love having a quarterback in the first few rounds, there are players with higher upside at positions of greater scarcity.

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John Trupin is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from John, check out his archive and follow him @troopdogg24.

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