Should fantasy owners be concerned over Eddie Lacy’s slow start?
For owners who drafted running backs in the middle portion of the first round, there is likely resounding disappointment by this point in the season. The likes of Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch and C.J. Anderson have yet to live up to their Draft Day status, but Lacy owners have no reason to panic.
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Admittedly, Lacy has looked heavy and slow to start the season. There is next to no chance he is playing at his list weight of 234 lbs, and it appears as if he is playing himself into game shape. However, this is no cause for concern given his track record. In Lacy’s first two seasons, he has displayed the same slow-start trend. Through the first eight weeks of the 2013 season, Lacy averaged 11.18 fantasy points per game. In the last eight weeks, Lacy averaged 14.55 fantasy points per game. Lacy averaged just 10.71 fantasy points per game for the first eight weeks in 2014 compared to 18.11 fantasy points per game in the latter eight weeks. Lacy’s performance improves as the season progresses and this season should be no different.
Lacy is a focal point in one of the league’s most high-powered offenses and essentially has had only one poor performance at full health this season. This performance came most recently in Week 5 against a tough Rams’ defense that has played better against the run than their numbers would suggest. Breaking Lacy’s performances down on a weekly basis sheds light onto why his overall numbers appear poor. Lacy performed well in Weeks 1, 3 and 4, but was hurt in Week 2, and had a poor performance in Week 5.
Week 1: Lacy had a solid performance against a Bears’ run defense that ranks seventh in fantasy points per game given up to opposing running backs. Lacy rushed for 4.5 yards per carry, totaling rushing 85 yards and scoring a touchdown.
Week 2: Lacy ran against the Seahawks’ No. 1 ranked fantasy rushing defense only had three carries due to a high ankle sprain he sustained early in the contest. Essentially Week 2 was a write-off for Lacy, but not on the basis of performance.
Week 3: Lacy was a game-time decision because of the sprain sustained in the previous week but managed to play and split opportunities with James Starks. Most owners would not have started him unless they owned Starks as a handcuff because the game was on Monday night. Despite the circumstance, Lacy still managed 87 yards from scrimmage on 13 touches.
Week 4: Lacy was back to full health and put together a solid 90 yards rushing to the tune of 5.0 yards per carry. Lacy’s line should have been even better, but he had a touchdown vultured at the one-yard line by John Kuhn.
Week 5: This was Lacy’s only game at full strength and he looked pedestrian, only managing 27 yards. Also, he didn’t seem to be a large focus of the Packers’ game plan, only receiving 13 carries.
It is time to buy Lacy. Lacy’s track record and his opportunity in the Packers’ offense are clearly in his favor. The fact that he had a score vultured and was hurt for a week have limited his output to this point. Next week, Lacy faces the Chargers, who have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Lacy owners should hold tight, and the rest of the fantasy world should be looking to buy-low. Lacy will live up to his draft status and finish in the top 10 at the running back position, just as he did in his first two seasons.
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Jon Warner is a correspondent of FantasyPros. He is an analyst at rotorun.com and a primary contributor to @Roto_Run.
