Even though D.J. LeMahieu is expected to regress, will he still be a viable fantasy option in 2016?
Second basemen are generally top-of-the-order type hitters with good speed and solid on-base skills. Still, the amount of second basemen who could be up for noticeable regression in 2016 is staggering. The league average BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) hovers around .300.
In the 2015 season, there were 25 second basemen who got at least 300 plate appearances and posted a BABIP over .300. Not all players who post inflated BABIP numbers are necessarily regression candidates, however. For example, a lefty hitter with blazing speed like Dee Gordon is more likely to finish with a BABIP over .300 than a slower, perhaps more powerful hitter like Kelly Johnson or Danny Espinosa. Here, we’ll look at what second basemen are likely to have less effective 2016 seasons.
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D.J. LeMahieu – Colorado Rockies
On July 14th, 2015, D.J. LeMahieu started the All-Star Game for the National League. Granted, he had a decent season, slashing .301/.358/.388, but I don’t think anyone predicted he’d even be an All-Star, let alone a starter. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear likely that he’ll be able to repeat his surprising 2015.
LeMahieu posted a .362 BABIP despite a career average of .340, which is already high. Despite playing half of his games in the hitter’s heaven that is Coors Field, he only put up an ISO of .087, showing that he has almost no power, whatsoever. Singles hitters tend to struggle to maintain success, and LeMaheiu has all the makings of a guy who could fall right off the success cliff.
On a positive note, he was able to steal 23 bases and did post the best walk rate of his career (8.1%), so while he will likely match his 2015 success, he should still be a decent back-end second base option and a starting option for NL-only leagues. He should be good for an average in the .280s to go with around 20 stolen bases and a half dozen home runs.
Jason Kipnis – Cleveland Indians
Jason Kipnis is quietly putting together a fantastic career, especially if we can forgive him for a down season in 2014. That being said, it will be hard for him to replicate his 2015 numbers in the future. Kipnis slashed an excellent .303/.372/.451 while playing sparkling defense.
He posted a career high .356 BABIP, however, and while he has stolen an even 100 bases in his career, he doesn’t have the speed to sustain that mark. One thing that he may improve on next season is his power output. Despite a solid .149 ISO, Kipnis only put nine balls over the fence in 2015. He’s an excellent fantasy option and should be among the earliest second basemen drafted in fantasy drafts, but he’s more likely to end the 2016 season somewhere in the .270s with a dozen home runs and 10 steals than he is to repeat his 2015 production.
Howie Kendrick – Free Agent
Like any free agent, Howie Kendrick’s fantasy value in 2016 will vary wildly depending on which team he plays for and what role he plays. The Los Angeles Dodgers are reportedly interested in re-signing him, but other teams are sure to show interest as well after Kendrick posted a .295/.336/.409 slash line in his first year in the National League. Kendrick was certainly solid at the plate, but he was buoyed by a .342 BABIP.
To be fair, Kendrick has averaged a .341 BABIP over his 10-year career, so while his BABIP may not regress, his opportunities certainly might. If Kendrick signs with a team that plans to use him as a full-time starter, he’s worth a spot and should put up similar numbers in 2016. However, if he ends up on a team as a part-time player (unlikely, but not impossible), his fantasy value will plummet. Depending on where he plays and what part of the lineup he is in, Kendrick could be a great piece in 2016 or someone who ends up on fantasy benches. Draft carefully.
Joe Panik – San Francisco Giants
Joe Panik basically came out of nowhere and put up one of the better seasons among second basemen. He slashed .312/.378/.455 with eight home runs while wielding a solid glove on defense. He’s an excellent dynasty/keeper prospect and should be among the top options at second base in 2016 in redraft leagues as well, but owners shouldn’t expect a repeat of his 2015 season.
Panik’s BABIP was a bloated .330 despite his relative lack of speed (only three steals in his two major-league seasons). Owners should still keep Panik on their draft boards and take him with confidence, but he’ll more likely end up with a more pedestrian 2016, something like a .275-.285 average and half a dozen home runs.
David A. Marcillo is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidMarcillo77.
