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2015 Fantasy Baseball Breakout Pitchers

2015 Fantasy Baseball Breakout Pitchers
Coming off pitching seven scoreless innings, Aaron Nola will look to stay hot against Washington

Projection models see Aaron Nola having a 2016 breakout that can bring you terrific value in the late rounds

Through the remaining days before pitchers and catchers report here at FantasyPros, we’ll be reviewing player’s performances for 2015 and selecting possible breakout fantasy stars for 2016. We’ll start with some pitchers that can be sneaky fantasy baseball draft picks this Spring.

Aaron Nola (SP, Philadelphia Phillies)

Over 13 starts in 2015, the Phillies’ 2014 first-round draft pick (7th overall) Aaron Nola set a 3.59 ERA over 77.2 innings, with 68 strikeouts and 19 walks. While his walk total wasn’t terrible (2.2 BB/9), his K/9 of 7.9 wasn’t quite high enough to make him a fantasy star. Given a whole year at the major-league level in 2016 and some inevitable growing pains along the way, Nola can be a late-round starting pitcher value pick for owners with a sharp eye. His 162-game average has him as a 200-inning pitcher (which seems unlikely with inning limits) and 178 strikeouts. His Steamer projection via Fangraphs is optimistic as well, predicting Nola as a 2.3 WAR pitcher in 2016 with an improved home run rate (1.1 HR/9) and similar K:BB numbers as 2016

Luis Severino (SP, New York Yankees)

As the Yankees gamed the service-time loopholes and let Luis Severino toil away in Triple-A almost all of last season, sharp fantasy owners held their cursors over the little green plus next to his name just hoping for word of his call-up. When that finally happened on August 5th, he allowed only two hits (one being a home run to David Ortiz) and struck out seven over five innings versus the Red Sox. He would finish the season 5-3 with a 2.89 ERA pitching against the best lineups (including three starts versus the Blue Jays) in the smallest stadiums through August and September. Severino’s success came by missing bats in 2015, as he struck out 56 over 62.1 innings and walked only 22. Steamer projections also love the young right-hander, predicting him as a 2.3 WAR player in 2016 with improved HR/9 and BB/9 ratios.

Stephen Matz (SP, New York Mets)

Everyone knows the Mets rotation is the best in baseball, and while your opponents scramble to grab the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom in the first few rounds, know that you can sit back a few rounds and snipe house lefty Steven Matz for a higher-value pick. This isn’t to say that Matz will have a better year than the first three, but based on value and price, you might feel a lot better about taking Matz late than passing up a consistent slugger in the early rounds instead of a regressed Harvey or deGrom. Look for Matz to produce around 150 innings of sub-3.75 ERA ball with a significant amount of wins attached to his name. Given a Steamer-projected 8.76 K/9 and 150 innings, he could easily rack up 150 strikeouts as well.

Carlos Rodon (SP, Chicago White Sox)

Carlos Rodon’s 2015 was underwhelming if you watched his games, but as the season closed and one could take a long look at his numbers, there are significant facets of his game to dream upon. His 3.75 ERA was better than average, as well as his ERA- of 92, though he simply walked way too many batters (71) in his 139 innings. Despite the walks in 2015, Steamer Projections still expect an improvement in 2016 with a K:BB of 2.25 (1.96 in 2015) with a higher K/9 (9.39 versus his 2015 effort of 8.98). With a reduction in walks, an improvement in strikeouts and BABIP (.315 in 2015), Rodon could easily produce solid mid-round value in 2016 drafts.

Ken Giles (RP, Houston Astros)

Unless you were in a league counting holds in 2015, Ken Giles wasn’t much more than a “maybe if Papelbon gets traded” guy. Of course, Jonathan Papelbon was traded to the Washington Nationals in August and opened the door for Ken Giles to establish himself as an elite closer, and Giles did just that. Unfortunately at the time, Giles was not in a position to save many games pitching for the rebuilding Phillies, but still managed to close out 15 games. This will change in 2016 of course, as Giles finds himself in a new uniform in Houston, who traded half a starting roster to land him in December. Houston won 86 games last year, and with a full season of Carlos Correa, Carlos Gomez and Lance McCullers, could win many more in 2016. Don’t be surprised if Ken Giles leads the American League with more than 45 saves in 2016, with a sub-2.50 ERA.

Roy Widrig is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Roy, check out his archive and follow him @rolewiii.

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