Peyton Manning’s current shortcomings as a passer make it hard to stack the AFC Championship
Conference championship week is here, which means our stacking options are limited, and value means everything. The key to winning in DFS this week will be finding the diamond in the rough.
With many players opting to take the stars, winners will be made by the unsung heroes. In this week’s stacks, I tried to mix up some obvious studs with a couple of value plays that could make or break your lineup. Once again, all prices come from FanDuel.
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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (3:05 p.m. ET)
The AFC Championship game is an extremely tough game to stack. The two teams played in November, but that was with Brock Osweiler under center for Denver.
Now, Peyton Manning is back at the helm for the Broncos and his performance last week against Pittsburgh wasn’t encouraging. Manning makes the Broncos’ passing game a risky proposition even with talented wideouts in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
New England also didn’t have Julian Edelman in the lineup against Denver and lost Rob Gronkowski to an injury during the game. Both offenses will look drastically different, which doesn’t make stacking this game any easier.
Players of note: Tom Brady ($8,100), C.J. Anderson ($6,300), Emmanuel Sanders ($7,400)
Rationale: Brady threw for 280 yards and three touchdowns against Denver’s vaunted secondary in the first matchup. The Broncos gave up 339 yards to a banged up Ben Roethlisberger, who didn’t have Antonio Brown in last week’s game.
The Broncos will try to run the ball and stick to the formula that helped them beat New England earlier in the season. Anderson ran for 113 yards and two touchdowns in that last matchup.
With Manning’s limitations, Denver will try to get its running game going again. Sanders caught six passes for 113 yards in the first matchup and is a good value at $7,400.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (6:40 p.m. ET)
Both of these teams have physical front sevens that will likely stymie the opponent’s running game. That means we will have to take a chance with the passing game. Arizona’s secondary had better numbers against the pass, but Carolina has the best cornerback in Josh Norman.
Players of note: Cam Newton ($8,500), Greg Olsen ($7,000), Michael Floyd ($7,500), John Brown ($6,500)
When in doubt, Newton goes to his tight end. Newton connected with Olsen six times for 77 yards against a very good Panthers’ defense. Olsen is one of the most underrated receiving tight ends in the NFL and somehow finds a way to get open even against the stiffest competition.
I’m taking fliers on Floyd and Brown for a couple of reasons. First, Norman will likely matchup against Larry Fitzgerald, making Fitz a risky fantasy option this week. However, Carolina’s secondary gave up a combined 14 catches for 185 yards and three touchdowns last weekend to Seattle’s depth receivers, Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett.
Carolina has a top-tier corner, but they don’t have great depth in the secondary. Floyd and Brown should see plenty of targets on Sunday and present some good value as depth receivers this week.
My Ideal Conference Championship Lineup
- QB – Tom Brady ($8,100)
- RB – C.J. Anderson ($6,300)
- RB – James White ($6,400)
- WR – Emmanuel Sanders ($7,400)
- WR – Michael Floyd ($7,500)
- WR – John Brown ($6,500)
- TE – Greg Olsen ($7,000)
- K – Brandon McManus ($5,000)
- D/ST – New England ($4,600)
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Matt Barbato is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Matt, you can view his archive or follow him @realmattbarbato.
