Mike Conley’s value can’t possibly get any lower. Is now the time to buy?
The 2015-16 NBA trading block has remained surprisingly quiet so far. Despite the usual rumors of significant trades lurking around every corner, we’ve seen just a few transactions with only one having any real fantasy implications. Ish Smith’s move from New Orleans to Philadelphia was huge for owners as it provided the veteran point guard a place where he could finally shine after a decade of living in the shadows.
Other than that, however, there’s been nothing – unless you consider Mario Chalmers moving to Memphis noteworthy, which it isn’t as long as Mike Conley remains healthy. Every week, it seems, we’ve acknowledged this absence of activity, and every week we’ve suggested it can’t possibly last for much longer. Thanks to a somewhat unconventional prognosticator, however, this groundhog day scenario may finally be over!
Ol’ Phil did not see his shadow, so that means change is in the air, Spring is knocking on the door, and those blockbuster trades are finally on their way. Hey, if we can credit an ageless “whistle pig” with forecasting seasonal changes, why not add NBA trade analysis to the little guy’s resume?
Either way, whether or not any of the trade rumors ever materialize, we’ll still be here, finding other avenues for you, the ever vigilant owner, to pursue. So sit back and enjoy our buy, sell and hold advice for Week 15.
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BUY
Jae Crowder – SF – Boston Celtics
With a preseason ADP of 127, Crowder has been one of the best surprises this year, as his ECR currently sits at 68. He’s been fantasy gold for anyone smart (or lucky) enough to have picked him up earlier in the season and hold on to him this long, as over the month of November, Crowder was rewarding owners with useful numbers in points, rebounds, steals, both shooting percentages and three-pointers.
After that early success, many probably thought about selling high on their waiver wire steal, but for those patient enough to see if he could keep it up, Crowder not only continued to impress but did so at an even higher rate. Without taking a hit to the rest of his game, No. 99 was able to increase his scoring from 11.4 points per contest in November to 16.1 in December.
Even after displaying his newfound ability to prove skeptics wrong time and time again, it still seemed to many that it was a good time to cut ties with Crowder before his stats took that inevitable turn and regressed back to their respective averages. However, that still hasn’t happened, as he’s managed to average 15.8 points in January while playing two fewer minutes per game compared to the previous month. You might be wondering, then, how could he be a good player to buy now?
How many times will owners make the mistake of selling high on a guy that just won’t stop performing? Some have probably learned their lesson by now, but many others might still be trying to turn a profit on their unexpected fortunes.
It’s this curiously characteristic inability of fantasy owners to form short-term memories that currently makes Crowder a nice buy-low target. Due to some minor injuries and a few poor shooting performances over the past week, owners may feel Crowder’s unbelievable season is nearing an end (it isn’t), so now is a good time to make an offer and see what happens – you might be surprised.
Mike Conley – PG – Memphis Grizzlies
Dealing with a sore Achilles that has plagued him for the past month, Conley hasn’t been his productive self since around Christmas time. While his assists and rebounds have improved slightly, his efficiency from the floor and his scoring have taken a noticeable dive. Averaging just 11.6 points per game while shooting 33.7 percent from the field in January, Conley’s 30-day player rating has hit what should be rock bottom, placing him just above Beno Udrih at 261st place.
With an ECR of 37 and taking into account the bum Achilles that should get better as the season continues, Conley is almost guaranteed to turn things around. Expect his averages to climb back up to around 15 points and five assists per game sooner rather than later.
Add to that at least one 3-pointer and one steal per game, averages that have held steady despite the recent slump, and you’ve got yourself a player well worth shooting for. As was mentioned earlier, fantasy basketball is a “what have you done for me lately” kind of business, so Conley is a nice buy-low target despite the well-known name.
HOLD
Gorgui Dieng – C/PF – Minnesota Timberwolves
A little over a month ago, Dieng first found himself on our list as a top “hold.” He was on his way to averaging 10.1 points (53.8% FG, 79.5% FT), 6.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 blocks and 1.1 steals in 28.4 minutes for the month of December. But because his “upside remained a bit foggy,” it was hard to recommend anything more than holding pat.
As luck would have it (we’re a modest bunch) though, that advice ended up being spot on. Given his relatively lackluster past couple seasons leading up to that point, it would have been hard to get much in return for Dieng (even with his relatively strong December). Furthermore, considering his next few weeks would exhibit a minor decline in production, buying Dieng would have been a bit premature.
After said weeks, his ownership totals took a hit as many owners believed his time had come and gone, but Dieng has returned to fantasy relevance over the past week, and his ownership rate has climbed back up above 50 percent. Over his last four games, Dieng has thrived while playing alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, averaging 16.75 points (62.1% FG, 77.8% FT), 10 rebounds and 1.25 steals in 32.5 minutes.
Dieng has improved throughout the season and has been the most consistent Timberwolf to play at the power forward position this season. He should continue the steady production moving forward, but since the recent surge is still, well, recent, it’s best to wait (once again) before making any moves.
SELL
Jrue Holiday – PG/SG – New Orleans Pelicans
Excluding his most recent performance against the Grizzlies, Holiday has been on a tear recently. In fact, even when including Monday’s dud, Holiday is averaging 20 points (42.7% FG, 85% FT), 7.4 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.4 threes in 29.2 minutes over his last five games.
His recent surge, aided by an ailing Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans, doesn’t stop at five games either, as his current 15-day player rating ranks him at No. 25 overall. Holiday has been steadily improving since shedding his early-season minutes restrictions, and that should continue to be the case from now until the end of the season. However, the question is to what degree will the return of Tyreke Evans hinder that improvement?
Holiday is still coming off the bench, but not having Evans around has certainly boosted his fantasy value. If Evans can return to full health (knee tendonitis), he will likely reclaim the starting point guard spot from Norris Cole. This roster change wouldn’t affect Holiday’s place on the depth chart, but it would, of course, create more competition for playing time or minimize Holiday’s offensive production.
“If” is the key word here, because there is always the chance that Evans isn’t able to fully recover from his knee issues, which would obviously necessitate a larger role for Holiday. For that reason, Holiday could be an attractive “buy” candidate.
However, the more reasonable perspective to take here is to acknowledge that he’s playing pretty close to his ceiling, and even if can keep up this efficient pace, fate may not afford him the opportunity to do so in such a prominent role for the Pelicans. It’s best to sell high while the price is right, rather than take a risk on an upside that is already just about fulfilled.
Ryan Anderson – PF/SF – New Orleans Pelicans
Almost in the identical position as Holiday, Anderson is currently enjoying the best stretch of his 2015-16 season. The reasoning behind choosing Holiday as a top “sell” candidate could almost be copied word for word and pasted here for Anderson, as both players are benefitting from a Pelicans’ team that’s seen both Davis and Evans miss time recently due to injuries. Davis (concussion) has now returned to action, but Evans (knee) remains questionable.
Also, like Holiday, Anderson spends most of his time as a cornerstone of the team’s second unit, so the return of Davis and Evans will not affect his place on the depth chart, but it will lessen the need for his offensive production. Again, just like Holiday, Anderson put up a dud Monday against Memphis, but over the four games which preceded that hiccup, he was simply on fire. Over that stretch, Anderson averaged 26.3 points (47.5% FG, 82.3% FT, 51.4% 3PT), 7.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 4.8 threes in 34.3 minutes – enough to make him a top-40 value over the last seven days (including the Memphis dud).
He’s been solid all year, so there’s nothing wrong with riding his scoring and three-point shooting ’til the end, but there’s a good chance other owners in your league have noticed Anderson’s explosion and are growing more envious with every game. While Evans is still out, it’s a good time to find out how high Anderson’s stock has risen, and, if you don’t like what you see, you can always stick with him and just enjoy the ride.
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George Haw is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from George, check out his archive and follow him @georgeWarfieldH.
