Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate and today’s NBA DFS picks. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep lineup announcements in mind and stay tuned for late swaps. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. It’s a bit less important on a two-game playoff slate, but it’s still necessary because any edge helps with late swaps when lineups are announced. Every player is an option today with only four teams to choose from so you’ll have to get creative. In the end, it’s about making the right decisions, and that’s what I’m here for. Let’s get to the best DFS plays of the slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate and today’s NBA DFS picks. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep lineup announcements in mind and stay tuned for late swaps. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. It’s a bit less important on a two-game playoff slate, but it’s still necessary because any edge helps with late swaps when lineups are announced. Every player is an option today with only four teams to choose from so you’ll have to get creative. In the end, it’s about making the right decisions, and that’s what I’m here for. Let’s get to the best DFS plays of the slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Primer
NBA DFS Picks: Core Plays
- DraftKings: $10,500
- FanDuel: $10,300
Starting off with the highest projected player on the team with the highest projected total, Shai is back on my core plays tonight. After failing to reach 20 real life points for the first time in a calendar year, I imagine this will be the closest we see to a bounce back as there is. It’s hard to say “bounce back” after the Thunder won by 18 points in Game 1. Still, he shot just 53% shooting from the field with 15 shot attempts, which are both below his averages, both regular season and postseason. Considering he scored 37-42-31 in the three games prior to the open of the series, I imagine we will see lot more run out of SGA tonight. He’s cheaper than Cade and they project similarly so I’ll be leaving Cunningham for a later section.
- DraftKings: $8,200
- FanDuel: $8,000
Harden and Mitchell are interchangeable here with similar pricing and similar projection but my lean is Harden. With these lower totals and tougher defenses across the board, you’re going to need pure minutes. The Cleveland guard should see the court for a minimum of 35 minutes tonight, while I project him closer to 38. We saw a pretty solid effort out of Harden to open the series with 45 fantasy points and he’s covered that mark in three of his last four games. He saw a massive 33% usage rate and if he can just limit the turnovers we could really see a ceiling effort from him.
- DraftKings: $7,600
- FanDuel: $7,600
After 51 fantasy points to open the series, I’m going right back to Holmgren at the same price tonight. He played 31 minutes, took 17 shot attempts and gobbled up 12 boards. Considering he only had one assist and one steal, there still feels room to peak here with some extra efficiency. It doesn’t seem like a one-off performance after basically the same result to close out the Phoenix series and the Thunder should score more than 108 points tonight. Holmgren, at $7,600, feels like a steal. A lot of ownership I expect to fall on the Thunder players because of how dependable their production is, but I’m going to be even with ownership along with the rest of the field tonight.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $7,100
- FanDuel: $6,700
As I mentioned before, chasing the minutes is my general strategy with tonight’s smaller slate and Duren has played an average of 35 minutes over his last three games. He’s gone over 37 fantasy points in consecutive games and should see an even higher usage rate than the 17% which he had in those games. A double-double isn’t necessarily a lock but a 50th-percentile outcome for him and he only shot 36% from the field in Game 1 with 11 attempts. With additional efficiency at similar minutes and attempts, he will easily cover 40 fantasy points. With his playing time, his floor is high.
- DraftKings: $9,300
- FanDuel: $9,000
He’s not the cheapest option for cash lineups but he does offer the floor needed. James has covered 40 fantasy points in six of seven playoff games so far and you can say he was limited in Game 1 against Oklahoma City. He only took 17 shot attempts with a 24% usage rate, despite averaging over a 32% usage rate with 20-plus shots a game so far this postseason. The Lakers battled most of the game to open the series until the Thunder slowly chipped away at them. If they can even keep it within single digits, James should see nearly 40 minutes of play. If they can’t, that number is still at 35 minutes. The timeless future Hall-of-Famer doesn’t want to go out quietly and with Austin Reaves due for an improvement, we should see an improved effort from the Lakers, and a high floor for James.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $11,000
- FanDuel: $10,700
It’s hard to say anyone is “low-owned” necessarily on the slate but for Cade’s ceiling potential, he isn’t getting enough love. The Pistons guard did not see much run to open the series with just 40 fantasy points after shooting 32% from the field. However, he still played 42 minutes and has bounce back written all over him. I expect this game to be closer than Tuesday’s match and if that’s the case, Detroit will need their star to perform. He’s seen a 34% usage rate these playoffs and at least 39 minutes of play in almost every game so far. It’s hard to see anyone with a higher ceiling than Cade here and his pricing without many pure value options should keep his ownership capped.
- DraftKings: $7,700
- FanDuel: $7,300
After going 3-for-16 from the field in Game 1, and failing to make a single three, I can’t imagine a lot of people will feel confident about going back to Reaves tonight. However, anything can happen here and going heavy on the Lakers is a way to get different on a slate where it’s tough to do so. The likelihood of the Lakers pulling off the upset and scoring the most on the slate is slim, but if it does happen, no one will have that type of roster build. I’m not saying go crazy with Lakers ownership but try to build out lineups where that is a possibility. With Reaves, we’ve seen 50-fantasy point efforts this year already. It’s within the realm of possibility. Be sure to sprinkle him in some of your deeper-field GPP contests.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $3,900
- FanDuel: $4,400
Finding pure value tonight is going to be a little tough but based on recent play, Jenkins appears to be the clear choice. He’s coming off 30 and 33 fantasy point efforts with 29 minutes played. Kevin Huerter is expected to miss again tonight, which should lead to additional playing time for Jenkins and Javonte Green. For Jenkins, his price is still sub $4k on DraftKings so even if he only tallies 20 fantasy points, that still lines him up for over a 5X ROI and a good chance to end up in the optimal lineup.
- DraftKings: $5,200
- FanDuel: $5,700
For a bit more of a riskier play tonight, Marcus Smart is lining up to return value on his pricing. Throwing a dart at any of the lower priced Lakers like Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, or Luke Kennard here isn’t the worst plan as the Lakers are still short-handed and someone needs to score for them. Obviously, it’s high-risk, high-reward, but it also likely won’t burn lineups if you pick wrong. For Smart, he has guard-forward status which helps and is coming off a 35-fantasy point effort to open the series. I would be shocked if he maintains his 25% usage rate in Game 2, but he should shoot better than 27% from the field tonight.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
