Paul Goldschmidt in the top tier with Trout and Harper and could fetch $50 in standard auctions
It’s not breaking news that Paul Goldschmidt was a fantasy stud last year and that he has been since the 2012 season. He was excellent in every category imaginable last year, as he combined for over 200 runs+RBI, hit over .300, stole over 20 bases and hit over 30 home runs. He was also excellent beyond the standard five categories for those leagues that get more creative, as he finished top five in the league in OBP last season, top 12 in extra base hits, and second in OPS.
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The consensus currently available at FantasyPros sees a similar season in store for Goldschmidt as he is currently projected for 195 runs+RBI, a .303 average, 16 stolen bases and 31 home runs. Though that represents a slight downturn from last year, that is of little surprise because it is difficult to project a player to the lofty numbers Goldschmidt produced last year. In other words, Goldschmidt’s value remains status quo as one of the best fantasy players to own this season. Of course, that comes at a price as Goldschmidt is a consensus top-three overall pick and will likely approach $50 in an auction league.
2016 Projections
2016 ECR™ Expert Consensus Ranking
Those lucky enough to have the number one overall pick this season will have to choose between Goldschmidt, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. The gap between them is small heading into the season, and one category that could provide differentiation is stolen bases. Stolen base production is a way for Goldschmidt to surpass Harper’s value, as Harper looks to be a four-category contributor.
The good news in that regard is that Goldschmidt posted a career high in both attempted stolen bases (26) and successful steal attempts (21). The bad news is that Goldschmidt’s physical stature indicates that he will lose speed as he ages. It is reasonable to pencil in Goldschmidt at 12 stolen bases this season as a floor, with anything he adds to that being extra value. That seems to leave Goldschmidt slightly lagging Trout (though he did outperform Trout in the category last year), but taking Goldschmidt as the centerpiece of your team will give you an advantage in your league and you can take him with confidence.
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Daniel Marcus is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Daniel, check out his archive, visit fantasy-phenoms.com, or follow him @danmarcus3.
