Kevin Gausman has flashed his potential and his price makes him worth a flier
Earlier this week, I brought you a list of 15 deep sleepers (ECR ranked lower than No. 400) for large leagues and a dozen hitters that would be considered sleepers in standard leagues (ECR ranked lower than No. 210). Today, you get six pitchers that I am targeting in round 20-25, all ECR ranked below No. 210. If you don’t know what ECR means, at FantasyPros, we compile expert rankings of players into an Expert Consensus Ranking. One expert may get a few players right on the money, but will also be wrong about a few. When you combine them, you get a more accurate assessment across all players. Don’t waste your late round picks by drafting players who will merely fill your roster and give you depth, take a risk and try to hit a home run. If it fails, you merely drop the player for a replacement-level player that will give you the same depth you could have drafted. Here are the guys that could prove to be home run picks.
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Mike Leake (CIN – SP)
When the Cardinals signed Leake I was so disappointed (I’m a Cardinals fan), but when I looked deep into his stats, I found myself getting increasingly excited. His WHIP has been steadily improving since 2012, and while he isn’t going to strikeout 200 batters, he is a workhorse that will surely win 12-15 games with the Cardinals’ historically good bullpen closing out games. The best part about him, is that he is leaving Cincinnati’s hitter’s haven. As evidenced by second-half success, leaving the Great American Ballpark will do wonders for Leake. Add in that he carried a 2.91 ERA on the road last season and now has Yadi Molina calling pitches, and you’ve got yourself a very reliable asset to fill out your rotation in the 20th round.
Kevin Gausman (BAL – SP)
The 6’4″ former top-10 prospect improved his K/9 rate from 7.0 in 2014 to 8.3 in 2015, plus his BB/9 rate from 3.0 to 2.3. These rates should continue to improve towards his 9.6/0.9 K/9 to BB/9 ratio that he flashed in Double-A before his call-up. The 25-year-old has great stuff, an excellent demeanor and is finally filling into his body. Last season, he was only given 112 innings pitched, but this year the Orioles are expected to extend him to around 180, if he remains healthy, which is always a big question mark for young pitchers. If he gets those 180 innings pitched, you could steal a 10 win, 3.50 ERA, 170 K pitcher in the late-rounds.
Trevor Bauer (CLE – SP)
The UCLA grad has been compared to Greg Maddux for his intellegence and Chris Carpenter for his competitive demeanor. Granted, his stuff may not be hall-of-fame worthy, but is certainly does have front-of-the-rotation upside. If Bauer can piece it all together, he might be worth a fourth round pick this time next season (see Gerrit Cole’s breakout). Bauer struggled with his control, however, leading the American League with 79 walks in just 176 innings pitched. If he stops overthinking each pitch, the 25-year-old can blossom into a 210 IP, 230 K, 3.70 ERA workhorse. I’m buying a few shares of his stock before his price soars.
Matt Moore (TB – SP)
Before missing most of 2014 and 2015 with Tommy John surgery, the big lefty, who was once a premier pitching prospect, was an all-star and finished 9th in the 2013 Cy Young voting despite only throwing 150 innings. His 3.29 ERA, 8.6 K/9 and 7.1 H/9 made him a legimiate 1A to David Price. Isn’t it funny how we too easily forget just how good a guy was three years ago? Now that he has the 50 Tommy John rehab innings under his belt, I expect Matt Moore to soar back to fantasy prominence with a 3.30 ERA and near 8.5 K/9. He will likely be limited to 180 innings this season, but those stats would have made him more valuable than Johnny Cueto last season.
Tyler Glasnow (PIT – SP)
I wrote this on the ace-in-the-making earlier this season: He is not expected to begin the season in the majors, but Glasnow, who just turned 22, has surged through the minors and I anticipate him stealing a job before May. The 6-foot-8, power-armed righty has struck out 581 batters through just 383 innings pitched with a 2.07 ERA since being drafted out of high school. Spots do not have to come available for players like Glasnow, they force their own way in. If Glasnow gets 170 innings this season he will surely strike out 200+, and is set to grab at least 13 wins on a playoff-contending Pirates team.
Be sure to check out Bobby’s fantasy baseball sleeper hitters for 2016
