What’s the next step for owners following Kyle Schwarber’s season-ending injury?
Amidst all the consternation regarding when to draft Kyle Schwarber this preseason due to his risk with low contact mixed with the allure of his power potential, did anyone muse about the potential for injury? Fantasy owners were relieved to hear Schwarber would be the personal catcher to veteran pitcher Jason Hammel, thus ensuring he could reach the 20-game threshold to retain catcher eligibility for the 2017 season. But then he ran into Dexter Fowler in the outfield, and everything changed.
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It started with reports centering on Schwarber spraining his ankle but his X-Ray was clean. There would be an accompanying MRI to confirm his status, and that’s when whispers emerged about the knee. This is not what fantasy owners of Schwarber wanted to hear, especially those in keeper leagues. Playing in the outfield was supposed to defray injury risk not result in one. Concern started to grow and when the announcement broke about Schwarber tearing his ACL and LCL in the knee, he was lost for the year.
Not only does this affect fantasy owner’s in redraft leagues, but it does cloud Schwarber’s future behind the plate. He was never a defensive-minded catcher, rather one who hit his way into the Cubs’ lineup. Chicago has an aging platoon tandem but also possesses a talented Double-A catcher in Wilson Contreras. This injury should accelerate his arrival. How Schwarber recovers in his rehab will also determine how much he will catch going forward.
In regards to the Cubs’ outfield, this injury pushes Jorge Soler back into fantasy relevancy as long as he can hit. His spring was mixed, and there were a couple of occasions his base running left manager Joe Maddon scratching his head. This, along with the logjam in the Chicago outfield, pushed Soler to a potential platoon.
It could remain this way, or the team could move Tommy La Stella to third and also use Kris Bryant in left field. There is no guarantee in regards to how Soler will be used, not to mention the hot start by Matt Szczur in the outfield.
Do not forget the biggest wild card in all of this; Javier Baez. Maddon fought to have Baez on the roster last year rather than in Triple-A, but the time in the minors last year helped Baez develop. His power/speed blend could be perfect for a corner outfield spot as well. Fantasy owners will need to monitor where Baez plays once his minor league rehab assignment gains traction.
For the fantasy owners trying to replace Kyle Schwarber, it will not be easy. Trading his average risk for the power was worth it to many as Schwarber was taken as high as the second or third round in some drafts and no later than the fifth in the rest. Since teams will look to try and have power potential, the replacement options were chosen with this in mind. There will be a rush to the waiver wire by Schwarber owners, but do not overpay unless it is completely necessary. Those who own him in 15-team or deeper formats, the pickings may be slim. Here are eight potential targets depending upon your league’s players available.
Yan Gomes – Cleveland Indians
Although he hit six home runs this spring, Gomes has a very low ownership in ESPN leagues as he is available in over 80 percent of leagues. For those on CBS or Yahoo, his ownership is much higher, but for a standard ESPN league, Gomes could be the target. He is only one year removed from a 21-home run season with 74 RBI in 2014 and his career average is .262 for the Indians. As the weather improves in Cleveland, Gomes and the offense should as well.
Wilson Ramos – Washington Nationals
For those who are unaware, Ramos finished last year sixth in RBI for catchers with 68 on the season. He cratered in regards to his slash lines but had LASIK surgery this offseason and made much better contact this spring. Ramos is capable of a solid 15 home runs with 70 RBI with the Nationals. If his average rebounds with the improved vision, he is a capable pivot who is much more available. Ramos is 28 percent owned in ESPN leagues, 46 percent owned on CBS and 30 percent owned on Yahoo.
Derek Norris – San Diego Padres
Another overlooked catcher is Norris of the Padres. He produced 14 home runs with 62 RBI for San Diego last year with a .250/.305/.404 slash line. He was seventh in RBI for catchers in 2015 and the Padres will score runs this year, I promise. Norris is available in over 63 percent of ESPN formats, 50 percent of CBS leagues and in 56 percent of Yahoo leagues. Norris hits in the top half of the batting order and could fill in affably without causing too much harm to a fantasy team.
Miguel Montero – Chicago Cubs
If trying to replace Schwarber, why not look at his teammate? Montero hit 15 home runs with 53 RBI to finish tenth in RBI for catchers last year. He only hit .248 but his OBP was .345. As a part of the Cubs’ offense, he should have another productive season. Montero is owned in 11 percent of ESPN leagues, 41 percent of CBS and 23 percent on Yahoo.
Yasmani Grandal – Los Angeles Dodgers
So trying to sell you on an injury replacement with another injury replacement may be tough, but Grandal is due to return in the Dodgers’ first home stand this week. As long as his forearm holds up, Grandal has upside as evidenced in his first half prior to his shoulder injury which sapped his power after the All-Star Break. For perspective, if you took Grandal’s second half from 2014 and combined it with his first half from last year prior to his injury, it looks like this; 126 games, 395 AB, 22 HR, 66 RBI with a .263/.380/.486. This is worth the risk for a player who is only 21 percent owned on ESPN, 81 percent on CBS and only 28 percent owned in Yahoo leagues.
Robinson Chirinos – Texas Rangers
He is a bit too old to be a prospect and too injured to rely on full time for fantasy but Robinson Chirinos could help owners in deeper formats. Chirinos is less than three percent owned in ESPN and Yahoo leagues with the potential to hit 12-to-15 home runs this year with half of his games in Arlington. His average may not be above .240 but this is about need and underlying potential for power.
Deeper Targets
As the list goes down, the problems arise. Josh Phegley is a very good platoon catcher for Oakland, and he produced nine home runs in only 73 games last year. His underlying statistics are in line with Stephen Vogt and as long as he gets 80 or more games, he can hit double-digit home runs. The issue here is in the counting stats, but his overall numbers should not have too adverse of an effect on fantasy teams. Phegley is available in 98 percent of leagues in all three formats.
Another catcher with power potential is Cameron Rupp of the Phillies. He hit nine home runs in 81 games last year and his slash line improved in the second half. Rupp has to hold off prospect Jorge Alfaro, but playing in Philadelphia should help him reach 12-to-15 home runs if he plays 100 games this year.
For those in stash mode, look to put in a preemptive claim on Tom Murphy of Colorado who has strong power potential if the Rockies trade Nick Hundley later in the year. Willson Contreras could be summoned by the Cubs at some point if anything happens to David Ross or Miguel Montero. This is an imperfect situation in which fantasy owners will need to adjust.
Kyle Schwarber was going to be a very scrutinized player for fantasy this year due to how his contact and power would play for the whole season. For 2016, we will never know. Due to his injury, his future behind the plate is also clouded. More will be known next spring, but for now, do your best to mitigate the loss of Schwarber for fantasy.
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Greg Jewett is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Greg, check out his archive and follow him @gjewett9.
