Those of you that played in our Beat the Expert salary cap contests last year know that we gave away a ton of free money (thankfully bankrolled by our sponsor). There’s a weekly $1,000 prize pool and you’ll also win a $5 bonus for simply beating our featured pro. It’s totally free, so sign up now before you forget!
A twist we’re adding this year is that the featured expert will provide advice on potential sleeper picks, based on the player salaries in the game. Think about this. You get to see what your competitor (the expert) is thinking. Hate his advice? Perfect, you should have no problem beating him this week. Like his advice? Even better, just tweak your lineup a bit and you know you’ll have a fighting chance to win the bonus. It’s unfair to the expert, but they’re used to having the chips stacked against them. Seriously, we can’t make it any easier to drag the pot, so enter the contest.
This week’s featured pro is Mike Clay from Pro Football Focus. In addition to running the fantasy football operations at PFF, Mike is a NFL writer for Rotoworld at NBC Sports. Smart guy with a good numbers background…it’s a good idea for you to follow him on Twitter. Mike’s taken a look at all the player salaries. Here’s his take on potential sleepers for week 1.
Note: Selecting the right undervalued players is key to winning salary cap contests. If you don’t know what a salary cap game is, check out the help section at our partner StarStreet (they help power our games and are as committed to customer service as we are).
Week 1 advice from Mike Clay at Pro Football Focus
The top value at quarterback is Peyton Manning. At $12,305, he is the 15th most expensive quarterback, but is a top-10 play. The Steelers are generally not going to be an easy defense to deal with, but note that this isn’t your older brother’s Steelers. Manning looked superb in the preseason, is an artist avoiding sacks, and has plenty of weapons at his disposal, including Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Jacob Tamme, and Joel Dreessen. Add an inactive Ryan Clark and unhealthy James Harrison to the list and Manning should be in for a solid day at the office.
When a starting running back is out with an injury, his replacement is generally going to be a great value in day gaming/salary cap leagues the next week. I’m not sure why that is, but it’s usually the case. There is a long list of players who fit that bill this week, but the best values are Toby Gerhart and Stevan Ridley.
Adrian Peterson might play this week, but he only figures to see 5-to-10 touches, which is essentially a No. 2 back’s usual workload. That leaves Toby Gerhart in line for 15-plus touches. He doesn’t have a long NFL resume (as a product of playing behind Peterson), but has been very productive on a per-play basis. At $8,013, he is the 37th most expensive running back and over $2,000 cheaper than Peterson. Considering he has potential to put up top-15 numbers, get him in your starting lineup.
Stevan Ridley makes the list over a few other backs expected to see a workload bump because (a) he’s better than Ronnie Brown (filling in for Ryan Mathews) and (b) I prefer him to DeAngelo Williams (possibly minus Jonathan Stewart, but with additional Mike Tolbert). It appears that Shane Vereen will sit out this weekend, leaving Ridley in line for a big workload; which, of course, is rare in a Bill Belichick offense. Danny Woodhead will take on a lot of passing down snaps in Vereen’s absence, but Ridley will handle most of the carries and all of the goal line work. Considering that New England should be able to jump ahead of the Titans early on, Ridley could be looking at a 20-carry day. At $7,692, Ridley is the 41st most expensive running back, but has top-15 value…if Vereen sits out.
I’m a pretty high on Robert Meachem this season, so you know I love him at his $5,269 salary, which ranks 56th among wide receivers. I know there are a lot of question marks about Philip Rivers’ arm and his poor preseason chemistry with Meachem, but there are more reasons to like him than there are not to. With Vincent Brown out for half the season, Meachem really has no competition for a starting job. He’s already proven to be a capable down-field playmaker in New Orleans, albeit in a small sample size, and, on paper, is an ideal replacement for Vincent Jackson. Even if Antonio Gates is back to his old self and Malcom Floyd emerges as the No. 1 receiver, this offense has shown over the years that it can support multiple fantasy starters. Add Rivers propensity for making heavy use of his receivers deep down field and there is a lot to love about Meachem this season. Up against a completely overhauled cornerback unit in Oakland, Meachem has potential for a huge debut for San Diego.
My favorite sleeper at the tight end position this season is Denver’s Joel Dreessen. With everyone’s mouth watering over Jacob Tamme’s potential with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball, it’s easy to overlook that Dreessen, not Tamme, is the team’s every-down tight end. Although Tamme does figure to see more targets, Dreessen showed in Houston and during this past preseason that he’s a major force in the redzone. Projecting eight or nine scores for Dreessen this season isn’t as crazy as it sounds. $5,000 is the minimum salary for a player in this contest and that’s all you’d need to pay for Dreessen. Consider that 24 tight ends will cost you more than $5,000. If you’re looking for a cheap tight end option, Dreessen is the best value.
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I want to thank Mike Clay for providing his advice and competing in our Beat the Experts contest. Hopefully this advice will be helpful for this week’s salary cap game and for your own Week 1 start/sit decisions. Please note that the expert is not required to pick these players for his lineup (It wouldn’t make sense for him to try to give you bad advice, though, since we can all check back on his recommendations here).
Now it’s time to pick your lineup for Week 1 »
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