Can Paul Goldschmidt and the Diamondbacks surprise this year?
The NL West has been a division primarily predicated on pitching and defense. Three of the division’s founding members – Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and San Francisco Giants – play in spacious ballparks that are considered “pitcher-friendly” and correspondingly have constructed their teams to match. According to ESPN Park Factors for 2014, AT&T Park (San Francisco) ranked #25 in runs scored, Dodger Stadium ranked #27, and Petco Park (San Diego) ranked #29.
In 1993, the Colorado Rockies joined the division as an expansion team. Due to the high altitude, Coors Field became one of the most prolific ballparks for hitters and destroyer of pitching staffs. Coors Field ranked #1 in ESPN Park Factors for 2014. The construction of the Rockies has always been geared toward the offensive side of the ball.
The Arizona Diamondbacks joined the division in 1998 as an expansion team. Chase Field ranked as the #2 park for runs scored in 2014. The Diamondbacks did win the World Series in 2001 based on the pitching/defense model, but it required two Hall-of-Fame pitchers to accomplish that feat.
Below I break down the Diamondbacks, and try to drop as much knowledge to help you derive fantasy euphoria!
Arizona had the worst record last year and didn’t seem to improve. They traded their starting catcher, and have a new GM in Dave Stewart and a new manager in Chip Hale. All you need to know about the Diamondbacks is that Josh Collmenter is their Opening Day starter.
CATCHER
- So the Diamondbacks traded their All-Star catcher and replaced him with a guy named Tuffy. Tuffy Gosewisch is slated to be your Arizona Diamondbacks starting catcher. He has a career line of .213 AVG, .225 OBP, 1 HR, and 7 RBI. It’s safe to say that he is not draftable.
FIRST BASE
- Paul Goldschmidt is a stud and ranked #2 at first base. The power is legit, and he provides some speed to go along with it. His season was ended by a broken hand in 2014, but all indications are that he is ready to go. Expect a .295 AVG, .380 OBP, 30+ HRs, 100+ RBI, and 10 SBs.
SECOND BASE
- Aaron Hill is the #32 second baseman. He is 33 years old and some scouts have said that he just doesn’t move well anymore. He has always been an inconsistent fantasy contributor, so it’s tough to rely on him. With decreased speed and age, I’d be hesitant to draft him. Last year, he hit .244, .287 OBP, 10 HRs, 60 RBI, and 4 SBs.
SHORTSTOP
- Chris Owings is the #25 shortstop. Owings is a young player at only 23 years old. He profiles as a potential 10 HR/10 SB player but with a low batting average and low OBP. In 332 plate appearances last year, Owings hit .261, .300 OBP, 6 HRs, 26 RBI, and 8 SB. Pretty good value.
THIRD BASE
- Yasmany Tomas was supposed to be the starting third baseman, but he’s been terrible defensively so the coaches are trying him in the outfield. He will probably stick out there. That leaves the position to Jake Lamb. He’s ranked as the #38 third baseman. He’s having a good spring hitting .282, .370 OBP, 2 HRs, and 4 RBI in 47 plate appearances. In 133 PA in 2014, though, he hit .230, .263 OBP, 4 HRs, 1 SB, and 11 RBI.
OUTFIELDERS
- Yasmany Tomas is the brand new shiny toy. He is not a major league defender at this stage of his career, but he is young and management just signed him to a six-year, $68.5 million contract. He will get his at-bats. What he does with them is the question. His power looks legit, and he is a beast of a man at 6’2″ 230 lbs. In limited plate appearances, though, he looks like a hacker with no discipline. Some home runs with a low AVG, low OBP, and a high strikeout number look like possibilities. He is ranked #50 in the outfield. Power is tough to find later, so he may be a cheap option. Just don’t expect a repeat of Jose Abreu from Tomas.
- Mark Trumbo is ranked #33 in the OF. Trumbo and Tomas are basically the same player, except Trumbo has actually done it in the major leagues. Trumbo had his season cut short last year due to a stress fracture in his left foot. When healthy, 30+ HRs, 100+ RBI, 5 SBs with a .240 AVG and .295 OBP are what you will probably get. I’d much rather have Trumbo than Tomas.
- A.J. Pollock could provide the best value out of the Diamondbacks outfield. He possesses a little power and speed, a decent AVG and OBP, and could score a ton of runs. Before his season got cut short by a broken hand, Pollack hit .302, .353 OBP, 7 HRs, 24 RBI, 41 runs scored and 14 SBs in 287 PA.
STARTING PITCHERS
- There isn’t much to get excited about on this staff. Josh Collmenter, the Opening Day starter, is the highest ranked at #87. He barely throws 90 mph.
- Jeremy Hellickson was acquired from Tampa Bay. He has never struck out more than 135 batters in a year, and sports a career 3.78 ERA and 1.261 WHIP.
- Rubby De La Rosa was once a hot Dodgers prospect. He was then traded the Red Sox, and now lands in Arizona. The problem with De La Rosa is his control. He sports a career 1.463 WHIP. Until he shows improvement in that area, there is no way I’m considering him.
- Allen Webster is another pitcher acquired from the Red Sox. Like De La Rosa, he has control issues. His career WHIP is 1.578.
RELIEF PITCHERS
- Addison Reed is the closer. He experienced some shoulder soreness before camp opened so his Spring Training debut was delayed. He says that he will be ready for Opening Day. He saved 32 games last year with a 4.25 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, 69 Ks in 59 innings, but served up 11 home runs.
- There has been chatter that Evan Marshall could be the closer if Reed is not able to go. Marshall is 24 years old, and is primarily a sinker-baller. In 57 games last year, he posted a 2.74 ERA, 1.358 WHIP, struck out 54, and walked 17 in 49 1/3 innings pitched.
Stan Son is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Stan, check out his archive and follow him @Stan_Son.
