Jamie Calandro discusses matchups and planning for Week 9.
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Welcome to this edition of fantasy baseball’s planner for Week 9 (6/1-6/7). Whether you play in a league that offers weekly or daily lineup changes, you can still gain a distinct advantage by scouring the matchups for the week ahead and planning accordingly. This is the time to get your FAAB bids in or to make your waiver claims, and I’m here to help target to right guys.
In my DFS work on Fantasy Team Advice, I often write about the benefits of stacking your lineups against certain pitchers (or the reverse – targeting pitchers against certain lineups). While I don’t recommend piling on a ton of hitters from one team in seasonal leagues, you’ll find that the analysis behind the selections is similar if you’re a DFS player.
STREAMING PITCHERS
TWO START OPTIONS
Andrew Cashner (SP, SD) – vs NYM, @CIN
I must have answered at least 20 “should I drop Cashner” questions on Twitter this week. No, folks. Do not drop Cashner. He is living proof of the unpredictability of wins in fantasy baseball, and has pitched far better than his 2-7 record indicates. He has an excellent 8.57 K/9 and 3.38 xFIP, and both the Mets and Reds rank in the bottom third of the league in wOBA against RHP. Forget the crazy thoughts of dropping Cashner and rock him for two starts this week.
Clay Buchholz (SP, BOS) – vs MIN, vs OAK
I hate that one of my least favorite players is becoming a staple of this article for me, but you can’t play fantasy sports with your heart. Buckholz’s peripherals have actually been quite good, as he has a 27.2% K-rate, a 6.6% BB-rate, and a 49.7 GB%, leading to a 3.09 FIP and 3.17 xFIP (indicating he’s pitching much better than it looks). This week he has two home starts against the Twins and Athletics, who rank 21st and 15th in wOBA, respectively.
Jaime Garcia (SP, STL) – vs MIL, @LAD
This one increases the heart rate a little, but I like Garcia with two starts on the bump this week, and if I just sat here and told you to play Clayton Kershaw, you’d stop reading me fast. Garcia’s problem has always been health, not talent, and he has two rather favorable matchups on hand. The Brewers are generally scary against LHP, but they lose in park effect traveling to St. Louis, and currently rank 29th in the league in overall team wOBA. The Dodgers rank first in the league in wRC+ against RHP, but are middle-of-the-pack against lefties. Garcia has an adequate 7.17 K/9 and a career xFIP under 3.50. He shouldn’t hurt you.
ONE-START WONDERS
Mike Fiers, (SP, MIL) – @STL
I don’t generally like to pick on the Cardinals’ hitters as they are very fundamentally sound and don’t strike out much, but Fiers has an elite 10.97 K/9 this season and he pitches much better on the road (2.82 ERA) than he does at home (3.78 ERA).
Nathan Karns (SP, TB) – @LAA
The Angels have just not figured it out yet, as they rank 28th in overall wOBA and 23rd in wRC+ against RHP. Going to Los Angeles is not really a park downgrade for Karns, and he is posting a healthy 8.49 K/9 so far this season. The Angels are also far more right-handed, and Karns is limiting RHB to a .282 wOBA this year.
Rubby De La Rosa (SP, ARI) – vs ATL
De La Rosa is having one of the quietest good seasons of anyone this year. I don’t care for the matchup with the Braves since they don’t strike out much and get a lot of LHB in there, but he’s had some fantastic peripherals in the form of a 23% K rate, 5.9% BB rate, and 47% GB rate. As I said, the Braves are not a big strikeout team, but they also don’t kill you, as they rank dead last in the league with a .113 ISO.
STREAMING HITTERS – START/SIT
START
The Rays are averaging 4.1 runs per game on the road, and are scheduled to face five LHP this week. They have much better hitters against lefties in this lineup (Evan Longoria is the obvious top choice, but he’s not a streamer), so the offensive output should be greater. In his brief major league career, Souza has posted a .389 wOBA and .258 ISO vs LHP.
Alex Guerrerro (3B,LF,2B, LAD)
Guerrero is a frustrating commodity to own right now in fantasy since Don Mattingly refuses to unlock full playing time for him (you had to figure the Crawford injury and Uribe trade coupled together would do that). The Dodgers do, however, play eight games this week and four of them are in Coors Field. In his limited time this year, Guerrero has posted a .440 wOBA, a .391 ISO, and a 186 wRC+. The upside is simply off the charts, and I’m streaming him this week in the hopes I get 5-6 games from him.
Ender Inciarte (LF,CF,RF, ARI)/A.J. Pollock (CF, ARI)
These guys have routinely been hitting 1-2 in front of the mighty Paul Goldschmidt, and the Diamondbacks play all seven games at home this week where they are averaging 5.1 runs per game on the season. They face off against the Braves and Mets, and the only two pitchers that are noticeably challenging are Matt Harvey and Jacob DeGrom.
SIT
This “sit” play comes with a bit of a caveat, in that you obviously can’t sit him if you don’t have a viable replacement. If you do though (Alex Guerrero, Pablo Sandoval, Yasmany Tomas are some options), Ramirez is seriously lacking in upside this week. He has a career low .315 wOBA this year, and his 15.2% K rate is at an all-time high. He has six road games this week, and all are in pitcher-friendly parks (St. Louis, Minnesota). He is also facing Lance Lynn, John Lackey and Kyle Gibson, all of whom have dominated RHB this season.
Soler is still striking out over 30% of the time this season and has been dropped to sixth and seventh in the batting order. He faces a negative park shift all week with road games in Miami and Washington, and has to face Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann and Tanner Roark in Washington, all of whom absolutely crush right-handed hitters.
Flores has shown extreme platoon splits so far, posting a .411 wOBA/.258 ISO vs LHP against a .275 wOBA/.154 ISO vs RHP. Unfortunately for Wilmer, the Mets face seven RHP this week, and three of the games are in San Diego which is as negative a park shift as it gets. Since some of the pitchers they face include James Shields, Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy and Chase Anderson, it makes sense to look elsewhere for Flores’ power production this week.
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Jamie is the Lead Baseball Writer for Fantasy Team Advice. Be sure to check back next Sunday for his Weekly Planner. For questions and answers, find him on Twitter @jac3600.
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