Is it a wise idea for the Rangers to acquire Cole Hamels?
Prior to the start of the 2015 season, the word on the street about the Philadelphia Phillies was pretty clear. Their roster was stacked with aging players tied to unwieldy contracts culminating in a projected last-place finish. Sometimes those experts know what they’re talking about.
There was never a doubt that the Phillies, who currently sit at 22 games under .500, would be in “sell” mode at some point during the season. But usually that sort of activity happens after the All-Star break. With the boys from the City of Brotherly Love playing more like Courtney Love though, it’s clear that changes are on the horizon.
One of the few valuable trade pieces the Phillies have is three-time All-Star pitcher Cole Hamels. Hamels might not be in the same class as Kershaw or King Felix, but he is not that far behind. Don’t let the win-loss record since 2013 (a combined 22-28, including 5-5 this season) fool you. Hamels is an elite pitcher who always hovers around the 3.00 ERA mark and generally posts a WHIP in the 1.10-1.16 vicinity. There’s a lot to like about Cole Hamels, which is exactly why the Rangers should avoid him.
That’s not to say the boys from Arlington couldn’t use a stud No. 1 guy on the hill, especially after early season injuries decimated their starting rotation for the second consecutive season. But the cost to get Hamels will be too much and quite frankly, the Rangers don’t need him.
First off, it’s all about the Benjamins, and in Hamels’ case, we’re talking close to $80 million between now and 2018. The Phillies have started to soften their stance about eating some of the contract, but Texas would need Philly to take on an entree-priced portion of the deal instead of an appetizer. The Rangers have roughly a $135 million payroll this season. If they take on Hamels, that’s at least another $20 million added to next year’s budget. I don’t see the team going with a $155 million dollar payroll in 2016, so that means someone would have to go.
Another price besides the almighty dollar is who the Phillies would want in return. Hamels is only 31 years old, so Philadelphia is not going to be satisfied with some average Double-A players and an aging veteran as compensation. They are going to want young quality.
Obviously the early major league success of Joey Gallo and Chi Chi Gonzalez would put them high on the Phillies’ wish list, but the Rangers need to place a big sign that says “untouchable” on each of them. Now if either Derek Holland, Martin Perez or even Matt Harrison was healthy, they might be the established guy included include in a deal with some upper-tier prospects. But then, if Holland, Perez and Harrison were healthy, there wouldn’t be a need for Hamels, now would there?
At the start of the season, the Rangers’ rotation was supposed to look something like this: Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Yovani Gallardo, Colby Lewis and Ross Detwiler. That immediately went into the dumpster when Darvish was lost for the season before ever taking the bump in a regular season game. Then Holland lasted all of one inning before being placed on the 60-day DL. Gallardo and Lewis have more than held their own while Detwiler, acquired from the Nationals in the offseason, has been a disaster.
Enter Nick Martinez who was 5-12 last season with an ERA of 4.55. The 24-year-old is currently 5-3 with a 2.77 ERA over 14 starts. Then came veteran Wandy Rodriguez who acquired off the waiver wire after being released by the Atlanta Braves. The crafty southpaw has started 11 games for the Rangers, compiling a record of 4-2 and posting a 3.20 ERA. At long last comes the aforementioned Gonzalez. Though he was knocked around pretty good by the Oakland A’s in his last start (six earned runs in 5.2 innings), the youngster is 2-2 with a 2.27 ERA over his first five starts in the majors. At one point recently, this Rangers’ rotation posted 13 consecutive quality starts. Name another rotation that can make that claim.
So is a rotation of Gallardo, Lewis, Martinez, Rodriguez and Gonzalez good enough to win the AL West? That’s certainly debatable, but remember that Holland, Harrison and Perez are all due back by the first of August – right in the heat of the pennant race. In other words, the Rangers might have too many starters as it is, even without Hamels.
When I hear all this chatter about the Rangers trading for an upper-tier left-hander who can get them to the playoffs, it takes me back to 2010 when the team traded for ace southpaw Cliff Lee. At the time he was acquired, Lee was 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA for the Seattle Mariners. In 15 starts for the Rangers, he went 4-6 with a 3.98 ERA. Yes, the Rangers reached the playoffs that year, but it wasn’t thanks to Lee. And though he was excellent in the division series and the league championship series, he was a miserable 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA when the team needed him most – against the Giants in the World Series.
So if you’re reading this Jon Daniels (a guy can dream, right?), forget Hamels, forget Dillon Gee and forget adding a pitcher. The team needs another right-handed bat and they need it ASAP. Perhaps a call to Cincinnati to see what the asking price for Todd Frazier is would be more appropriate?
Mitch Cox is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Mitch, check out his archive and follow @chicofathead.
