It’s hard to predict how well DeMarco Murray will perform this year
August has finally arrived, and all of a sudden fantasy football draft dates appear on our calendars. Training camps will paint a slightly better picture of what to expect with team depth charts, and hopefully there are as few injuries as possible during the preseason. Even so, our real pre-draft questions won’t be answered until the season progresses. I’m going to do my best to predict the future and discuss five burning questions that seem to be unclear before the NFL season starts.
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Is DeMarco Murray’s second round ADP a steal?
There is much debate about this topic. You’ll see some experts recommend drafting DeMarco Murray in the middle of the first round and others telling you not to bother with him. Without a doubt, the biggest concern with Murray is the presence of Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. Let’s assume Murray’s proponents are correct by claiming his recent workload/injury history is irrelevant. There are still several factors that make it hard to buy-in on anyone’s projections for his fantasy season.
Along with having an unorthodox head coach, Murray is on a team with a subpar defense, a questionable QB situation, inexperienced WRs, and an offensive line that has some depth issues. Sproles will almost certainly be involved with the RB passing game, and it’s safe to bet Chip Kelly mixes the more-than-capable Mathews in this high-tempo offense to keep legs fresh. In essence, there are just too many moving parts to make an accurate prediction on how Murray will perform in 2015. I’m not saying it’s impossible for him to succeed, but he offers far more risk at his current ADP (or earlier) than reward.
What should we make of the Cowboys’ backfield?
After the departure of our last topic, DeMarco Murray, the Dallas Cowboys’ RB depth chart appears to be Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar in that order. With arguably the most dominant offensive line in football, one of these three players is bound to reap a decent fantasy season in 2015.
The sample size was fairly small, but Randle managed 6.7 YPC in 2014. Even the most mediocre of running backs can flash greatness behind a strong offensive line. Murray is super talented, but there’s no question that the Cowboys’ run blocking was a huge contributor to his success. This scenario demonstrates why opportunity is often more important than actual talent in fantasy football. Joseph Randle is good ENOUGH to take advantage of this situation and have a strong season. Lance Dunbar should only threaten a few backfield catches and Darren McFadden is already struggling to stay healthy. It’s not a bad idea to have Randle and McFadden on your team, but don’t reach for McFadden. Randle has RB1 potential and is almost always available in the fourth or fifth round. A risk this late in the draft is well worth taking.
Can Jimmy Graham be as productive as he was in New Orleans?
If you’ve owned Jimmy Graham in fantasy football during the past few years, you’ve probably scratched your head on more than one occasion. He’s either getting you 100 yards and two touchdowns or 34 yards on three targets. The best explanation for this is the fact that Graham has played banged up far too often. Even with frequent appearances on the injury report year after year, he’s only sat out one regular season game since he broke out in 2011.
With all of that being said, Graham still caught at least 85 balls between 2011-2014 and posted 11, nine, 16, and 10 touchdown seasons during those years, respectively. Without question, he’s a dominant player and extremely difficult to cover when healthy. The Seahawks don’t pass nearly as often as the Saints, but Graham will become the go-to guy for Russell Wilson on a team that controls the ball effectively. Another double-digit touchdown season might be wishful thinking, but I like the odds. The player talent drops towards the end of the third round, which is a perfect time to draft the new Seattle tight end.
Which second-year player is most likely to have a slump?
Were you pretty excited when you drafted Keenan Allen last year? Me too. After a 1,000-yard, eight-TD rookie season in 2013, Allen failed to reach 800 receiving yards, and his TD total was cut in half the following year. Many rookie WRs shined last year, and most should continue to do so. But who will be the Keenan Allen of 2015? The answer is Kelvin Benjamin.
Benjamin put up remarkably similar numbers to Keenan Allen his rookie year (1,008 yards, nine TDs), but you should think twice before drafting him as your WR2. The Panthers’ passing game was painful to watch in 2014, and four of Kelvin Benjamin’s touchdowns occurred in the fourth quarter of games that the Panthers ended up losing by 18+ points (garbage-time touchdowns). He also led the league in dropped passes, ran a 4.61 during his pro-combine and his QB isn’t exactly the most accurate. Benjamin will still get a ton of targets and he is physically gifted, but it won’t be enough to replicate his rookie season.
Which middle-round players offer the most value?
Let’s face it; these are the guys who will end up on your league champion’s team. Your first couple picks should theoretically be sure bets, but the players you choose later in the draft determine how far your fantasy team will go. Last year’s examples included Jeremy Maclin, Le’Veon Bell, T.Y. Hilton and Emmanuel Sanders. All of these players provided huge value at their 2014 ADP. So who are the big value players this year? Here are two WRs and two RBs that will be on championship teams this year:
*Average according to our rankings in parentheses
- Julian Edelman (53rd): In Edelman’s last nine games (including playoffs), he averaged 8.1 catches, 87.3 yards, and 11.3 targets per game. This span also included four receiving touchdowns, and it should be noted that each of his opponents ended their season 8-8 or better. Tom Brady’s four-game suspension may have pushed back Edelman’s ADP, but players are far more important during the second half of the fantasy season. The minute Brady returns, Edelman’s numbers will shoot back up right when you need them to.
- Keenan Allen (56th): Even though Allen had a lousy season in 2014, he still averaged almost nine targets per game. The Chargers’ offense looks sharp, and he’s still the number one guy with a great QB throwing to him. Keenan Allen’s stock is low and draft day will be the best time to buy.
- Justin Forsett (28th): There will be some changes with the Baltimore Ravens’ offense under new offensive coordinator, Marc Trestman, but they will likely favor Forsett. He should be heavily involved on a winning football team with little competition. Not many other RBs can say the same, which is why Forsett should be a good value pick at the end of the third round.
- Melvin Gordon (31st): Simply put, Gordon is in a great situation to succeed at running back and we just haven’t seen what will happen yet. No one gets drafted early in fantasy football until they’ve proven something in the NFL. Running backs always carry some risk after the first round, but this talented rookie should have a high floor and flirt with the RB1/RB2 border throughout the year.
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Sean Dwyer is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Sean Dwyer, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyDwiz.
