Adrian Peterson’s Week 2 eruption helped brighten his Week 3 outlook

“Wow” is all I can say about Week 2 in the NFL. Hopefully, some of you had your own ideas and went with Travis Benjamin last week. The guy put up a ridiculous 31 points on FanDuel, and only had three receptions! I do not expect that trend to continue into Week 3, but if you like him, then by all means grab him again. However, you will see below how using Benjamin in Week 3 will not separate you in your tournaments like he did in Week 2.

Let us recap my predictions from last week and see how I did. The low ownership players I told you to target were Ryan Tannehill and Adrian Peterson. Tannehill threw for 359 yards and two touchdowns against Jacksonville. He finished with a solid 24.06 fantasy points on FanDuel. Not bad for a guy who was only owned 3.7% last week. Adrian Peterson also had a decent game. Although he did not score, Peterson racked up 134 rushing yards and had two receptions for 58 yards. He finished with 18.2 fantasy points on FanDuel. Using both of these guys last week would have given you 42.26 points with just these two players.

I had a split with the guys I said to target despite their high ownership in Week 2. Carson Palmer shredded the Chicago Bears’ secondary as I and many people predicted. Palmer was 13.5% owned in Week 2 and those people, including myself and my readers, got it right. Palmer only threw for 185 yards, but he also had four passing touchdowns. He finished with 22.2 fantasy points on FanDuel. The guy I told you to target who failed last week was Brandin Cooks. To my defense, many people expected the Saints to destroy Tampa Bay in Week 2. Not only did that not happen, the Saints looked awful and lost their second straight game. Cooks was not awful, but with so many owners and a lower score, he did not help separate anyone from the pack. Cooks finished with five receptions for 62 yards. His production was slightly better than in Week 1, and he finished with 8.3 points on FanDuel.

I hope everyone listened to me last week regarding the high ownership players to avoid. Carlos Hyde was the most owned player on FanDuel in Week 2. He came back to earth like I stated and did very little against the Steelers’ defense. Hyde finished with 61 all-purpose yards and no touchdowns. He finished with a meager 8.1 points on FanDuel. The other guy I said to stay away from was Nick Foles. Foles had a good Week 1 but struggled like I said he would against Washington in Week 2. He finished with 150 yards and a touchdown. On FanDuel, he only earned 10.1 points, which isn’t enough from the QB position to help you win big money.

Now let us look at this week’s FanDuel projected ownership and see who is worth grabbing and who you should run far, far away from.

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Low Ownership Players to Target

Ryan Tannehill – MIA vs. BUF – $8,000 (0.6% owned)
I gave you Tannehill here last week too, and he delivered by putting up 24.06 fantasy points. This week he faces off against the Bills, who shockingly have given up the third most fantasy points to the quarterback position. I expect Tannehill and the Dolphins to score at least two touchdowns in this game. Lamar Miller is banged up, which means those points should come through the air. With a 0.6% ownership, Tannehill might be the guy to set you apart in tournament play.

Allen Hurns – JAC @ NE – $5,100 (1.1% owned)
If you read my FanDuel value plays for Week 3, you would be able to tell that I like some Jaguars for DFS play this week. NE is going to win the game, and probably by double digits. This means the Jaguars will be playing from behind similarly to how the Bills did against NE last week. I like Bortles and both the Jaguars receivers, and I think Hurns might benefit from Allen Robinson’s big game in Week 2. New England does not have the secondary they had last year, and they have surrendered the third most fantasy points to the WR position over the first two weeks of the year.

High Ownership Players to Still Target

Julian Edelman – NE vs. JAC – $7,700 (41.1% owned)
Julian Edelman has been highly targeted like usual, and the Patriots have started the season surprisingly hot on offense. Tom Brady has been superb, and I think he should throw three touchdowns on Sunday. Edelman should catch at least one of those scores. Although he is the highest owned player in Week 3, his price tag is fantastic for his production and should be in some, if not all of your lineups.

Adrian Peterson – MIN vs. SD – $8,900 (14.2% owned)
Funny how people’s perception of a player can change from week-to-week. Last week I gave you Peterson as a low ownership player to target, and it paid off wonderfully. With 192 all-purpose yards, Peterson looked like himself again. Part of that is due to 29 Week 2 touches compared to only 10 in Week 1. Now that Minnesota has seen the recipe for the success look for the coaches to use Peterson like they did in Week 2. He faces off against a suspect SD run defense in Week 3, and I expect him to score his first touchdown of the season.

High Ownership Players to Avoid

Dion Lewis – NE vs. JAC – $6,700 (22.1% owned)
Lewis was one of those guys you wish you trusted in Weeks 1 and 2. However, I think Bill Belichick will be game planning differently against Jacksonville. The Jaguars have been stingy against the run this year. They have let up the fifth fewest points to the RB position. I expect more of a timeshare with LeGarrette Blount this week. Not to mention, Lewis fumbled the ball twice last week, and Belichick does not usually reward guys who drop the ball.

Larry Fitzgerald – ARI vs. SF – $6,700 (25.6% owned)
Fitzgerald looked like he found the fountain of youth last week. I wish I chose to use him more than his teammate John Brown. I won in every lineup I used Fitzgerald in last week, but with a 25.6% ownership I will not be using him at all this week. Fitzgerald went up against the Bears – one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Any receiver facing the Bears should be used in a few DFS lineups. Remember, the key to winning big money in DFS is to find the guy who is going to break out for one week, but no one else has on their roster. Fitzgerald fit that bill last week, but obviously will not in Week 3.

Players Worth Targeting by Position

Quarterbacks

• Tom Brady vs. JAC – $8,700 (27.6% owned)
• Cam Newton vs. NO – $7,900 (9.4% owned)
• Blake Bortles vs. NE – $6,700 (1.5% owned)
• Andy Dalton @ BAL – $7,100 (2.3% owned)
• Nick Foles vs. PIT – $6,500 (3.6% owned)

Running Backs

• Le’Veon Bell @ STL – $8,800 (25.2% owned)
• Jamaal Charles @ GB – $8,700 (15.7% owned)
• Isaiah Crowell vs.OAK – $6,600 (3.4% owned)
• Lance Dunbar vs. ATL – $4,900 (1.6% owned)
• Darren Sproles @ NYJ – $5,400 (4.2% owned)

Wide Receivers

• Mike Wallace vs. SD – $5,800 (0.6% owned)
• Julio Jones @ DAL – $9,000 (9.3% owned)
• Amari Cooper @ CLE – $6,900 (6.6% owned)
• Doug Baldwin vs. CHI – $6,000 (5.7% owned)
• Vincent Jackson @ HOU – $7,200 (1.4% owned)

Tight Ends

• Tyler Eifert @ BAL – $5,900 (12.2% owned)
• Jimmy Graham vs. CHI – $6,300 (9.2% owned)
• Eric Ebron vs. DEN – $5,100 (2.8% owned)
• Jared Cook vs. PIT – $5,400 (2.8% owned)
• Martellus Bennett @ SEA – $5,600 (1.5% owned)

Kickers

• Justin Tucker vs. CIN – $5,000 (4.7% owned)
• Dan Bailey vs. ATL – $5,000 (4.4% owned)
• Chandler Catanzaro vs. SF – $4,700 (3.5% owned)
• Matt Prater vs. DEN – $4,700 (1.2% owned)
• Robbie Gould vs. SEA – $4,800 (3.9% owned)

Defense/Special Teams

• Seattle Seahawks DST vs. CHI – $5,300 (20.0% owned)
• Denver Broncos DST @ DET – $4,600 (12.9% owned)
• Carolina Panthers DST vs. NO – $4,600 (6.6% owned)
• Atlanta Falcons DST @ DAL – $4,300 (3.2% owned)
• Arizona Cardinals DST vs. SF – $4,700 (4.8% owned)

Make sure to check back next week as we analyze Week 4.

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Rob Schwarz, Jr. is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Rob, check out his archive and follow him @ChiSportsnut25.