Jordan Matthews will look to rebound from a disappointing Week 5 performance
Week 6 provides a ton of options, making me want to enter more and more lineups until kickoff. The two popular teams that the public tends to target are coming in with the highest projected team (TT), Patriots (31.3) and Packers (30.0). If you’re playing in tournaments and want to pivot away from their projected ownerships, the Eagles have a high projected TT (26.8), and they also provide the Monday night hammer. Browns, Redskins and Panthers all come in with a projected TT under 20 points, all of whom are facing top-notch defenses.
The lineup that was featured in Week 5 was good enough to advance into the second round of the $300K Turbo Survivor and cashed in 50/50s. However, it wasn’t good enough to profit in the Millionaire Maker with the first place lineup reaching 255.62 points. Each player provided enough consistency with their high floors, but not enough of them exceeded their projected ceilings.
Here is my lineup for the second round of the $300K Turbo Survivor. I’ll also use this as one of my lineups in the Millionaire Maker. The players I recommend targeting are listed under “other notables” as options you should feel confident in using. Not all of the popular, high-priced players crack my model and won’t be listed, due to ownership, pricing, game flow and expected value. There are many variables I take into account before constructing my model for each week, allowing me to eliminate players I choose not to target. I received criticism shortly after readers noticed that I didn’t have Eddie Lacy as an option in my Week 5 notables. Lacy ended up with 4.5 points FPTS with a meager 35 total yards.
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Quarterback
Sam Bradford – PHI vs. NYG – $6,000
Sam Bradford is my favorite option this week when you consider salary, matchup, ownership and game flow. Bradford is averaging 38 pass attempts and 256.2 PaYds/G. After only throwing three touchdowns in his first three games, Bradford almost tripled that total in his last two games with five touchdowns. The New York Giants are dead last in the league in pass defense, allowing 304.2 PaYda/G. This game has the second highest game total (50.0) and should provide plenty of opportunities as both teams average over 64 offensive plays per game.
Other Notables
- Tom Brady – NE at IND – $8,100
- Aaron Rodgers – SD at GB – $7,700
- Andrew Luck – NE at IND – $7,600
- Philip Rivers – SD at GB – $6,300
- Ryan Tannehill – MIA at TEN – $5,700
- Matthew Satfford – CHI at DET – $5,300
- Jay Cutler – CHI at DET – $5,200
- Ryan Fitzpatrick – WAS at NYJ – $5,000
- Colin Kaepernick – BAL at SF – $5,000
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell – PIT vs. ARI – $8,500
Le’Veon Bell draws a tough matchup vs. the Arizona Cardinals, who are only allowing 97.2 RuYda/G. Vegas has this game being close (-3) with the Cardinals traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast, but 91% of the money is coming in on the Cardinals. Bell is a true workhorse, with 80 total touches in only three games. He is also extremely effective in the passing game with 18 catches (on 20 targets) through three games. With there being other running backs in better matchups at a much lower salary, it is possible this is one of the few weeks Bell is owned in fewer than 25% of tournament lineups.
Matt Forte – CHI at DET – $7,100
Matt Forte always grades out as one of the top options at running back on DraftKings where they give a full point for a reception. Forte already has 120 touches through five games and will continue to be the main focal point in the Bears’ offensive scheme. The Lions have already allowed seven rushing touchdowns this season along with 126.6 RuYda/G. You can’t go wrong with Bell and Forte as your running back tandem. Their floors/ceilings are incredibly high and make for a great play in any type of contest.
Other Notables
- Adrian Peterson – KC at MIN – $7,600
- Eddie Lacy – SD at GB – $6,300
- DeMarco Murray – NYG at PHI – $6,000
- Dion Lewis – NE at IND – $5,800
- Chris Ivory – WAS at NYJ – $5,100
- Danny Woodhead – SD at GB – $4,700
- Carlos Hyde – BAL at SF – $4,600
- C.J. Anderson – DEN at CLE – $4,500
- Duke Johnson Jr. – DET at CLE – $4,500
- LeGarrette Blount – NE at IND – $4,400
- Lamar Miller – MIA at TEN – $4,300
- Shane Vereen – NYG at PHI – $4,200
- Chris Thompson – WAS at NYJ – $3,300
Wide Receivers
Jordan Matthews – PHI vs. NYG – $6,200
Jordan Matthews let me down last week with only five receptions good for 44 RecYds. If you watched the game, you know that Matthews almost had a touchdown and remains Bradford’s favorite target, regardless if they are between the 20s or in the red zone. The Giants are without their best cornerback, Prince Amukamara. The absence of Amukamara should only make things easier for Matthews this week. Featuring a player in back-to-back weeks isn’t something that I like to do, but Matthews is going to have a monster game in Week 6 and supplies a strong correlation with Bradford. Two factors that will lead to Matthews being low owned this week are his disappointing performances (recency-biased) and his salary ($6,200).
Eric Decker – NYJ vs. WAS – $4,900
DraftKings is simply getting their algorithm wrong when it comes to Eric Decker’s salary. Decker is ranked sixth in points per opportunity among all wide receivers and will be stapled into all of my lineups in Week 6. Decker’s knee injury is in the rear view mirror after being able to play in Week 4 and getting the needed rest during the Week 5 bye. The Jets have a solid projected TT (23.3), and the Redskins are ranked 22nd in DvP (WR).
Anquan Boldin – SF vs, BAL – $4,300
The public has a negative perception on the 49ers, whether it be offensively or defensively and rightly so. I’m assuming majority of the people would choose Kamar Aiken over Anquan Boldin in Week 6, but I’m on the other side of the fence. Boldin has a phenomenal matchup vs. the Ravens who are atrocious defending the pass this season, allowing 278.2 PaYda/G and are ranked 31st in DvP (WR). The 49ers will have to rely on the passing game with Reggie Bush listed as doubtful and Carlos Hyde (foot) listed as questionable.
Other Notables
- DeAndre Hopkins – HOU at JAX – $7,700
- Julian Edelman – NE at IND – $7,600
- A.J. Green – CIN at BUF – $7,600
- Keenan Allen – SD at GB – $7,600
- Emmanuel Sanders – DEN at CLE – $7,500
- Calvin Johnson – CHI at DET – $7,300
- Randall Cobb – SD at GB – $7,300
- Brandon Marshall – WAS at NYJ – $7,100
- Larry Fitzgerald – ARI at PIT – $7,000
- Jeremy Maclin – KC at MIN – $6,500
- T.Y. Hilton – NE at IND – $6,500
- Alshon Jeffery – CHI at DET – $6,400 (monitor his game-time status)
- Jarvis Landry – MIA at TEN – $6,200
- Allen Robinson – HOU at JAX – $5,900
- Golden Tate – CHI at DET – $5,200
- Donte Moncrief – NE at IND – $5,000
- Marquess Wilson – CHI at DET – $4,000 (if Royal & Jeffery are out)
Tight End
Jordan Cameron – MIA at TEN – $3,000
The Miami Dolphins are now being coached by former tight end, Dan Campbell. The word out of the Dolphins’ locker room is Campbell is shaking things up and has lifted their motivation, bringing back a lot of passion. As a former tight end, you should expect the Dolphins to get the highly talented Jordan Cameron involved early and often. Cameron is averaging seven targets per game, and the Titans come in ranked 19th in DvP (TE). Cameron’s salary ($3,000) gives you plenty of relief to load up elsewhere and makes his 5X upside very attainable (15 points).
If you’re playing in cash games, I highly advise you to use Gronk.
Other Notables
- Rob Gronkowski – NE at IND – $7,600
- Greg Olsen – CAR at SEA – $5,500
- Travis Kelce – KC at MIN – $5,000
- Martellus Bennett – CHI at DET – $4,800
- Zach Ertz – NYG at PHI – $2,900
Flex
Arian Foster – HOU at JAX – $7,000
Le’Veon Bell, check. Matt Forte, check. But wait, there’s more! It doesn’t get much better than Arian Foster as a flex option. This will be his third game back (groin), and he looked every bit of himself against the Colts in Week 5. That game was played on Thursday night, giving Foster a few extra days of rest. You should expect a huge workload out of Foster as he will be involved in the rushing and passing attack. Doug Martin and Charles Sims dismantled the Jaguars in Week 5, allowing 174 RuYds on 36 carries. Arian Foster has elite vision and patience, similar to Le’Veon Bell. Foster’s elite pass catching abilities are in the same company as Forte and Bell as well. Why not have all three of them this week?
Defense/Special Teams
Cincinnati Bengals – CIN at BUF – $3,000
Have you ever constructed your lineup but were $100 over in salary for that “perfect lineup”? Well, that happened to me this week when I had $3,000 left and desperately wanted the New York Jets ($3,100). Fortunately for me, the Bengals graded out as a top-five option in my Week 6 model, so I wasn’t that upset with having to pivot. The Bills are likely to be without Tyrod Taylor, which would force the Bills to roll with E.J. Manuel behind center. The Bengals have only allowed 17.8 PA/G, ranking them fifth overall. More times than not my method is to target defenses that are playing at home but sometimes you’re $100 short…
Other Notables
- Seahawks – CAR at SEA – $3,800
- Broncos – DEN at CLE – $3,700
- Packers – SD at GB – $3,200
- New York Jets – WAS at NYJ – $3,100
- Eagles – NYG at PHI – $2,900
- Dolphins – MIA at TEN – $2,800
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Matthew Davis is a correspondent for FantasyPros. You can find more from Matthew by viewing his archive or following him @_mattywood_.
