The hot stove continues to roar on in this balmy December, with the Houston Astros acquiring the little-known elite closer in Ken Giles and a minor-league shortstop in exchange for a pile of prospects to dream upon. Potential-closer Vincent Velasquez, first-overall pick Mark Appel, Brett Oberholtzer, 2015 second-rounder Thomas Eshelman and minor-leaguer Harold Arauz all head to Philadelphia in the deal. Take a deep breath. This is a big one.
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Fantasy Impact
Giles was relatively unknown prior to the 2015 season. By the end, he was considered by many as an elite closer on a mediocre team, however. That’s in the past now as Giles moves from the 63-win Phillies to the 86-win Astros.
For fantasy owners, this means one thing – saves – and lots of them. In 2015 with the Phillies, Giles was able to save 15 games in 70 innings, which is a paltry number given his talent and an unfortunate result of playing for a catastrophically bad team and waiting on a Jonathan Papelbon trade. Put him on the Astros and he almost immediately becomes a top-tier closer in all fantasy leagues.
His career 40 ERA-, 4.19 strikeout:walk ratio and 11.7 SO/9 should be enough evidence to most value-seeking managers. And while the Houston Astros’ mediocre defense may be worrisome to a few, the Phillies’ defense behind him in 2015 wasn’t much better, as Giles pitched the whole season with a .311 BABIP and 3.05 FIP. The change of venue will likely be a positive one for Giles as well, as he’ll be moving from the bandbox of Citizens Bank Park (1.038 run factor) to Minute Made Park (.927 run factor)*.
Velasquez was the Astros’ number three prospect (via Baseball Prospectus) coming into the 2015 season. He tossed 55-plus innings to the tune of a 4.37 ERA (3.46 FIP) with 58 strikeouts and 21 walks. The 23-year-old was hit around a bit, but was still young and remains a solid prospect. Some thought must be given to his power arm when considering that he was traded for the current Phillies’ closer, and he should have a chance to take over that role at some point in 2015. While the Phillies also brought in ex-closer Ernesto Frieri, his most recent success came in 2013.
Of the major leaguers attached to this deal, Oberholtzer stands to contribute the least for fantasy purposes. It’s not that Oberholtzer is a bad pitcher (his 2013 season was quite good with an ERA- of 69), though he has been slightly below average as a starting pitcher in the past two seasons. Fortunately for Oberholtzer, he throws left-handed, and lefties out of the bullpen are a valuable resource. Thus, Oberholtzer can eventually contribute cheap holds in the right bullpen situation.
The most curious inclusion to this deal is Appel, the 2013 first-overall draft pick out of Stanford University. While Appel was legendary in college, he hasn’t quite wowed scouts and evaluators much since, which might be a result of his poor performance in the Cal League in 2013. However, he still possesses a tremendous fastball (93-95 mph, touching 98 mph) along with a solid slider and change-up, and still has plenty of time to reach his ceiling as a No. 2 starter in the major leagues. With the unimpressive and very young Phillies’ rotation, we may be seeing Mark Appel by this summer.
In extremely limited work (10.1 IP) as a professional in 2015, Eshelman posted a 4.35 ERA with five walks and eight strikeouts. At 21 years old and three years of college ball on his arm and mind, Eshelman stands a good chance of advancing through the Phillies’ system rather quickly, and could contribute as soon as 2018. Eshelman profiles mostly as a fourth or fifth starting pitcher, with very good command and control.
In 123 innings pitched with Cal State-Fullerton before being drafted, Eshelman posted a low 1.61 ERA with a K:BB of 125:6 – a number that will surely regress as a professional. Eshelman will likely be a solid fantasy contributor when his time comes, and with the Phillies’ rotation leaving much to be desired, we could see him by 2018.
*Run factor compares a team’s home stats versus their away stats. Rates above 1.00 favor the hitter and below 1.00 favors the pitcher.
Roy Widrig is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Roy, check out his archive and follow him @rolewiii.