The Minnesota Twins finished the 2015 season with an 83-79 record to finish in second place in the American League Central behind the Royals. Top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano made their much awaited big league debuts for the Twins. While Buxton did not show much in limited at-bats, Sano burst onto the scene hitting 18 home runs in just 80 games to help the Twins offense finish 13th in runs scored. Twins’ hitters such as Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe were also worth fantasy consideration both hitting over 20 home runs. The pitching staff, however, was void of any fantasy options outside of closer, Glen Perkins. The Twins pitching finished ranked 19th in ERA with a league-worst 6.52 K/9.
The Twins roster has remained mostly the same heading into the 2016 season. Key additions include 29-year-old, Byung-ho Park, who the Twins signed to a four-year, $12 million contract from Korea and catcher, John Ryan Murphy, who the Twins acquired via a trade with the Yankees for Aaron Hicks. With the additions of Park and Murphy and further development of Sano and Buxton the Twins’ offense should be strong this season and will look to carry the team. Meanwhile, the pitching staff has remained the same with the possible exception of prospect Jose Berrios receiving an in-season call-up to join the rotation.
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Projected Lineup:
- Byron Buxton – CF
- Brian Dozier – 2B
- Joe Mauer – 1B
- Miguel Sano – RF
- Trevor Plouffe – 3B
- Byung-Ho Park – DH
- Eddie Rosario – LF
- Kurt Suzuki/J.R. Murphy – C
- Eduardo Escobar – SS
Notes: Buxton will need to prove he can hit at the top of the Twins’ lineup otherwise we could see either Dozier or Escobar move into the leadoff spot. The Twins’ lineup features a lot of power with Dozier, Sano, Plouffe and Park all capable of hitting 25-plus home runs this season. Rosario is often the forgotten man in the Twins lineup as he will look to build on his 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases from last season. At catcher, newly acquired J.R. Murphy will push for playing time and could take over as the primary backstop for the Twins this season.
Projected Rotation:
Notes: The top three spots in the Twins rotation are set with Hughes, Santana and Gibson. The leader for the fourth spot is Duffey, who pitched well at the end of last season with a 3.10 ERA in 10 starts. The final spot in the rotation will likely come down to Milone or Nolasco. Milone is younger and has been the better and more consistent starting pitcher over the last two season, so look for him to secure the final spot to start the season. Trevor May and prospect Jose Berrios could also see some time in the rotation this season.
Projected Bullpen:
Notes: Perkins will be the Twins closer again this season, registering an average of 34 saves over his last three seasons. Next in line for saves if Perkins were to get injured would likely be Jepsen, who converted 10 saves in 11 chances late last season when Perkins missed time due to an injury.
Stud: Brian Dozier (2B)
Dozier will turn 29 years old in May and is still in the prime of his career. He hit a career-high 28 home runs last season which led all second basemen and drove in 77 runs which was the second highest at the position. The one knock on Dozier is his batting average and with three straight seasons between .235 and .245, it is not likely to improve this season. Dozier ranks as a top-five second baseman this season and should be able to produce a stat line around .240 with 25 home runs, 75 RBI, 90 runs and 15 steals again this season.
Bounce-Back Candidate: Phil Hughes (SP)
Hughes posted a career year in 2014 posting a 16-10 record with a 3.52 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go along with an amazing 186:16 K:BB ratio in 209.2 innings which led to him being drafted as middle rounds starting pitcher in fantasy leagues last season. Hughes’ 2015 season did not live up to his career year finishing with an 11-9 record, 4.40 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with only 94 strikeouts in 155.1 innings. His 2015 season featured a career worst HR/9 rate of 1.68 and a career-low K/9 rate of only 5.45. While his 2014 season is likely not obtainable, he is a better pitcher than his numbers showed last season. Look for Hughes to bounce-back this season to be a viable end of the rotation fantasy pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA and low WHIP with about 7.5 K/9.
Sleeper: Byung-ho Park (DH)
Park is a 29-year-old power hitter who will be entering his first season in the Major Leagues. He will open the season as the Twins primary DH and bat near the middle of the lineup. While projecting international players to the MLB is difficult there is no denying Park’s immense power potential with over 50 home runs in each of his last two seasons in Korea. Park will likely strikeout a lot in the big leagues and his batting average could struggle to rise above .250 but Park is currently only be drafted as the 24th first basemen and 197th player overall according to our ADP. At that price, fantasy owners need to look at scooping up the power-hitting first basemen who has the potential to hit 30-plus home runs.
Bust: Miguel Sano (OF)
With Sano’s big half season for the Twins last year where he hit .269 with 18 home runs and 52 RBI in 80 games, many experts and fantasy players are just assuming that we can double his stats from last year and project him as a lock for 35 home runs and 100 runs batted in with a .270 average this season. While his power is legitimate, if you look behind the numbers you will see that Sano struck out over 35% of the time last season and had an unsustainable .396 BABIP. Expect Sano to go through some growing pains in his second season as opposing pitchers make adjustments and his BABIP regresses to a more normal level. Unless Sano can make his own adjustments at the plate I wouldn’t be surprised to see his batting average drop under .240 this season. His power bat still makes him fantasy worthy but I would let someone else take him at his current ADP as the 56th player off the board in drafts.
Late-Round Flier: Byron Buxton (OF)
Buxton was at the top of most prospect lists at this time last season but had a quiet introduction to the majors in 2015 hitting just .209 with two home runs and two stolen bases in 46 games while working through some injuries with the Twins. Heading into 2016, Buxton currently has an ADP of 206, as some of the prospect hype has worn off. Buxton has the upside to become a 20-20 player some day in the majors, but for this season, fantasy owners who take a flier on him in the later rounds will be happy with a player that bats leadoff for the Twins and can produce a solid batting average with about 10 home runs and 25 stolen bases.
Prospect To Watch: Jose Berrios (SP)
Berrios is the top pitching prospect in the Twins’ organization as he shined last year in stops at Double-A and Triple-A, combining to pitch 166.1 innings with a 2.86 ERA and 175 strikeouts against only 38 walks. Berrios is small in stature standing just 6’0’’ tall and weighing 185 pounds but has three great pitches including a fastball that sits in the low-to-mid 90’s and excellent control. Berrios will likely start the season in Triple-A but should get a call up to the majors at some point during the 2016 season. How quickly he is called up depends on his early season performance in Triple-A and the Twins’ end of the starting rotation production.
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Brad Richter is a correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.