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2015 Season Recap
Coming into 2015, the Nationals faithful were still awaiting the magnum opus that their supremely talented 22-year-old prodigy was due to deliver. Well they finally got it and heaven help the league if he has 10 more years of his hellacious swing to unleash on America’s national pastime. In a year that saw Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon miss a combined 223 contests, an unfazed Harper proceeded with minimal lineup protection to finish his stellar season as the unanimously selected NL MVP.
Prior to last season, the few knocks on the right fielder were that he couldn’t stay healthy and that he was too impatient and pull-happy at the plate. His 2015 season officially eradicated those concerns as his scintillating .460 OBP shattered his previous career high and eclipsed all of his peers. He played in 153 contests and not only did he exhibit shrewdness at the plate with his .330 average (falling just short of a batting title), but over 50% of his base hits were of the extra-base variety.
In other words, Bryce Harper was getting on base frequently and, when not going yard or driving in his teammates, was putting himself in scoring position. Moreover, merely 12% of his hit balls were deemed “soft” by FanGraphs, a mark more impressive than AL MVP Josh Donaldson.
To prove just how much weight Washington heaped on his formidable shoulders, Harper hit a staggering .416 in Nats’ wins. All these accolades are bestowed upon a guy who made $2.5 million last year, or about 1/15 of Giancarlo Stanton’s salary.
2016 Outlook
The harrowing part about Harper’s season last year was not that he has the potential to get better, but that he is bound to ameliorate his production, purely by default. While Washington endured a disappointing year, the odds are extremely low that they will once again be ransacked with the bevy of injuries that were inflicted upon them in ’15. The presumed added health brings augmented protection for the Nationals’ slugger.
That is demoralizing news for opposing hurlers as Harper has such powerful hip rotation in his torso that his back foot drags and slightly elevates off the ground as he rotates his hips. This was even more evident by the .369 average he had on balls that he hit in play. In other words, don’t let Harper make contact. Also consider that the precocious outfielder’s extreme work ethic and auspicious fortunes surely await him in 2016.
2016 Projections
Our projections list the slugger third among pitcher and hitters with an average selection of 2.7, landing him behind Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt but ahead of elite southpaw Clayton Kershaw. Don’t be surprised to see him fly past the 100 RBI mark since the NL East doormat and 100-loss Philadelphia Phillies, along with the 101-loss Braves are ensconced in an arduous rebuilding processes. This will elongate the wide grin on the MVP’s face even further as nearly half his season’s production (21 HR/48 RBI) came at the expense of the Braves, Phillies and Marlins.
2016 ECR
Our projections see the former Rookie of the Year amassing similar numbers to last year’s tune of 42 long balls and 99 RBI. He is placed second among hitters, right behind his fellow luminary Trout. Furthermore, expect excellent plate discipline once again as the three-time All-Star swung at just 28% of pitches out of the zone last year and 45% of total pitches, the most patient numbers of his career by a solid margin, according to FanGraphs.
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