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Impact Dynasty Rookie Running Backs

Impact Dynasty Rookie Running Backs
Does Keith Marshall have a chance to win the starting running back this season?

Does Keith Marshall have a chance to win the starting running back job in Washington this season?

DLF_BannerAustan Kas provides insight on which rookie running backs will make the largest impact in dynasty leagues.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Austan head to Dynasty League Football.

The 2016 class of running backs wasn’t expected to be a strong one, with Ezekiel Elliott considered the only sure bet of the group. Elliott’s stronghold on the top spot only strengthened after the draft as he wound up in a nearly ideal situation. 

The gap in value between Elliott and the rest of the rookie running backs just keeps getting bigger. Even before playing a snap in the NFL, Elliott has become one of the hottest dynasty commodities in the game.

With that said, there are other running backs in this class capable of making an impact. 12 months ago, Todd Gurley was the Elliott of the 2015 class, but rookies David Johnson and Thomas Rawls exploded onto the scene and became very valuable dynasty assets in short order. Over at DynastyLeagueFootball.com, we collect monthly ADP data for rookie drafts and startup drafts. Here are the numbers for the top 10 rookie running backs.

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Running Back June Rookie ADP May Startup ADP
Ezekiel Elliott 1.0 17.0
Derrick Henry 7.9 63.8
C.J. Prosise 8.3 110.3
Kenneth Dixon 9.3 81.0
Devontae Booker 13.0 101.8
Paul Perkins 21.4 121.0
Kenyan Drake 22.2 147.5
Jordan Howard 28.6 128.2
Keith Marshall 29.4 165.5
Alex Collins 30.3 165.3

Let’s take a look at some of these backs and see who could become a valuable asset at a position where dynasty owners are starving for production.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
The running back position has been devalued — both in fantasy and the NFL — over recent years, but Elliott still went fourth overall to the Dallas Cowboys. That should tell you what kind of special talent we have on our hands.

With an ideal landing spot in Dallas, who boasts one of the league’s top offensive lines, Elliott has emerged as a clear No. 1 pick in rookie drafts this summer, and he’s immediately jumped into the upper echelon of dynasty running backs alongside Todd Gurley and LeVeon Bell. His May ADP in startup drafts at DynastyLeagueFootball.com was the 17th player off the board, which was 47 spots before the next rookie running back (Derrick Henry).

Elliott checks off every box — fast, explosive, elusive, good vision and excellent hands. He’s as complete of a running back prospect as there’s been in a long time. He doesn’t run with the power of Gurley, but he has much better hands.

How good is Dallas’ offensive line? With Tony Romo and Dez Bryant sidelined for a majority of the year, Darren McFadden — who hadn’t eclipsed the 800-yard mark since 2012 — rushed for 1,009 yards and averaged 4.6 yards per carry. With Romo and Bryant healthy and the offensive line intact, Elliott will likely be a first-round pick in redraft leagues, and he is already an elite dynasty asset.

Kenneth Dixon (BAL)
Dixon is a hard-nosed runner who would rather deliver a blow to a defender than duck out of bounds. His running style is extremely fun to watch, although it may not bode well for his durability.

A star at Louisiana Tech, Dixon erupted for 27 rushing touchdowns, which led the nation, as a freshman in 2012. He wrapped up his four-year career with 4,483 rushing yards and 72 scored on 802 carries (5.6 yards per attempt). Dixon added 87 grabs for 969 yards and 15 more touchdowns as a receiver. Simply put, the dude did it all.

It’s his receiving skills which are particularly intriguing now that Dixon is with the Baltimore Ravens, who took him in the fourth round. Ravens’ offensive coordinator Marc Trestman is known for involving his running backs in the passing game, and Dixon, who some think is the best pass-catching back in this class, should fit right in.

Standing in Dixon’s way are Justin Forsett and Javorius Allen. Forsett has been productive when healthy over the past two years — ranking third in the league in yards per carry (4.9) since the start of 2015 — but he is entering his age-31 season. Allen was also taken in the fourth round, and he turned 137 carries into 514 yards (3.8 yards per attempt) as a rookie last season, adding 45 catches on 61 targets.

While the depth chart is somewhat crowded, it could be a lot worse. After an injury-plagued year in 2015, Baltimore’s offense should be much better this year as Joe Flacco returns to full health. In rookie drafts, it’ll take a mid-to-late first-round pick to nab Dixon, and he’s coming off the board in the middle of the sixth round in startups.

Alex Collins (SEA)
C.J. Prosise has garnered more hype this offseason, but Collins was rated better or equal to Prosise by several pre-draft scouting services. Collins is exactly what Seattle coach Pete Carroll loves in running backs — a tough, downhill back who runs with power. He’s pretty similar to Rawls.

A highly-regarded recruit out of high school, Collins opted for Arkansas over the powerhouse programs. He racked up 1,000-yard seasons in each of his first two years despite playing in the vaunted SEC West and sharing carries with fellow 2016 draftee Jonathan Williams. As a junior in 2015, Collins upped his numbers to 1,577 yards and 20 scores with Williams out due to injury.

Despite Rawls’ emergence in 2015, Seattle’s running back depth chart was pretty thin heading into the draft, hence, the Seahawks drafting two running backs in the first five rounds. Still, there are several factors in play — chief of which are Rawls and Prosise — helping to keep Collins’ price tag rather low.

There’s very little to dislike about Rawls, who led the NFL with 5.6 yards per carry, but he is coming off a broken ankle. The Seahawks spent a third-round pick on Prosise while they took Collins in the fifth, which in and of itself makes Prosise the more attractive player. But draft capital goes out the window once the pads come on in training camp, especially for Carroll, who has always been known for creating a practice atmosphere where everyone’s job is up for grabs.

The other thing which makes Collins attractive right now is his cost. The draft has hurt Collins’ stock. In February rookie drafts, he was the 13th overall pick and fourth running back. Now, he’s the 30th overall selection and 10th running back. He’s a first-round talent going for a significant discount.

Paul Perkins (NYG)
Perkins has seen his value rise by virtue of his landing spot. The 28th overall player (eighth running back) taken in November 2015 rookie drafts, Perkins has climbed to the 21st overall player and sixth running back in recent drafts.

It makes sense because the New York Giants have an opportunity in their backfield. With Andre Williams, Shane Vereen and Rashad Jennings splitting up most of the work, the Giants finished 2015 ranked 18th in rushing yards per game (100.6) and 29th in rushing touchdowns (five). They needed an infusion of talent, and they got it with Perkins.

At 5-foot-10, 208 pounds, he is more of a scat-back type than a wrecking ball. Perkins’ jump-cut ability is to die for, and he is extremely shifty and elusive. With Vereen likely locked into a passing-game role, Perkins will have the chance to become an early-down weapon for the Giants.

Derrick Henry (TEN)
The Tennessee Titans’ selection of Henry, after they’d already traded for DeMarco Murray earlier in the offseason, was one of the most head-scratching picks of the NFL Draft. Henry’s value has taken a hit as a result.

In January, as he was wrapping up his Heisman-winning season at Alabama, Henry was the fourth player taken in rookie drafts, four spots in front of any other running backs. Fast forward to June, and he’s the seventh player taken, with Prosise and Dixon right behind him.

There has been some debate about how Henry’s game translates to the NFL. Time will ultimately tell, but what we have here is a player who followed up maybe the best high school career of all time with a monster three-year career at Alabama. Is Henry all of the sudden bad at football?

At 6-foot-3, 247 pounds, Henry darn near broke PlayerProfiler.com with his 4.54 40-yard dash. That big and that fast? Whew. 

The workload concerns are justified, though. Alabama ran him into the ground with an absurd 395 carries this past season. Ostensibly, his situation — a timeshare with Murray in a mediocre Titans’ offense — certainly isn’t ideal, but it’s brought his cost down to a pretty reasonable level.

Keith Marshall (WAS)
Other than Elliott, Mitchell may have landed in the best spot of rookie running back. After losing Alfred Morris, the Washington Redskins were left with second-year back Matt Jones and third-down weapon Chris Thompson in the backfield, so they were expected to address the position in the draft. Washington had to be thrilled to find Marshall available in the seventh round.

A former top recruit out of high school, Marshall excelled at Georgia as a freshman, averaging 6.5 yards per carry on 175 attempts on his way to a 759-yard, eight-touchdown campaign. Knee injuries and a loaded depth chart (Gurley and Nick Chubb) kept Marshall to just 136 carries over his final three collegiate seasons.

A burner, Marshall ran the fastest 40-yard dash at the combine, blazing a 4.31, and he had the most reps on the bench press (25) among all running backs. The size-speed combo Marshall provides at 5-foot-11, 219 pounds is tantalizing. 

His lack of playing time the past three seasons has limited his development as a running back, specifically his vision and feel for the position, but Marshall can break a big play on any touch. He’s also a capable receiver.

Jones figures to get multiple chances to run away with the Redskins’ lead job, but he was terrible as a rookie, averaging a meager 3.4 yards per carry on 144 attempts. With the addition of first-round pick Josh Doctson to an already improving offense, Washington can continue its upward trend if Kirk Cousins’ 2015 season proves to be a harbinger of things to come. Marshall is fairly cheap to acquire right now, coming off the board early in the third round of rookie drafts, and he’s well worth the gamble as an enticing late-round lottery ticket whose path to playing time isn’t too arduous.


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