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2016 QB Do Not Draft List (Fantasy Football)

Jul 6, 2016

Why might it be wise to avoid Matt Ryan this season?

It might be wise to avoid Matt Ryan in drafts this year

There are two ways to handle your QB position in fantasy football, you either get one early or you wait until the late rounds. Quarterbacks, in general, are the most consistent position in fantasy, and barring injury, the top guys, tend to return your investment the majority of the time.

Because of this, putting any of the top guys on a do not draft list would a difficult thing to predict. There are, however, three guys being taken in the later rounds that I will be avoiding at all costs.

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Matt Ryan (ATL)
Ryan’s ADP has him currently ranked as the 20th QB off the board, but that’s a number I expect to rise as we draw closer to the season, making him a fringe QB1 for those of us that like to wait on QB. He has put up pretty fantasy-friendly stats in the past and has some nice offensive weapons that, on the surface, could make him an appealing target for your fantasy team. Don’t do it.

I’m going to give you six reasons why you don’t want Ryan, or any Falcon for that matter (yes, including Julio Jones) on your fantasy team this year. Those reasons are; the Panthers, Broncos, Seahawks, Cardinals, Chiefs and the Panthers again. Let me explain.

In three consecutive weeks from Week 4 through Week 6 the Falcons are at home versus the Panthers then go to Denver and Seattle to play the Broncos and Seahawks. Three straight games against three of the best defenses from 2015 — but that’s not all.

Week 12 and Week 13 (the last two games before the fantasy playoffs begin) they welcome two more great defenses into their dome — the Cardinals and Chiefs, respectively. And finally, to add insult to injury, in Week 16 (the championship game for most leagues) they go to Carolina for their second meeting with the Panthers. I want no part of Ryan this year, and unless Jones falls to the late first round or early second, I’m not touching him either.

Tony Romo (DAL)
Romo is a great fantasy QB…when healthy. That’s the caveat, “when healthy.” Romo checks all the boxes for a stud fantasy QB: great receiver, good offensive line, good running game and bad defense.

All those are factors I take into account when picking my QB1, and if I were talking about any other QB they would be high on my list. But I’m not.

I’m talking about Romo. He is one sack away from breaking his collarbone again, and as a fantasy owner, do you want to be holding your breath every time he goes down, hoping that he gets up? I for one do not, and I will not own Romo on any of my teams this year.

Marcus Mariota (TEN)
Mariota is FantasyPros’ consensus No. 15 QB for 2016 — making him a fringe QB1 with upside. I do believe Mariota will have a pretty good fantasy season, and I would not fault anyone for taking him, but there is one thing to consider that might make you think twice. His schedule for the fantasy playoff weeks are as follows; Broncos at home, at the Chiefs, at the Jaguars, and if your league includes Week 17, then home against the Texans.

Three of those four teams (Broncos, Chiefs and Texans) are top-tier defenses from 2015 and are expected to be good again in 2016. Even the Jaguars, with all their off-season moves, figure to be a fairly good defense. That is a pretty brutal stretch for the most important time in fantasy football and for a fringe QB1, so I’m not going to risk drafting him.

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Geoff Lambert is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can read more from Geoff by visiting his site or follow him on Twitter @GeoffLambert77.

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