Fantasy Football Consistency: Running Backs

LeSean McCoy may have been a much more consistent fantasy producer during his first year with the Bills than you might think

Bob Lung breaks down which running backs are the most consistent.

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The running back position continues to lose its stranglehold on the fantasy owners. The draft theory of grabbing two running backs in the first two rounds is dead! As I have mentioned in annual review over the past couple of years, you can see the trends below regarding the decline of the super-stud backs (scoring based on PPR).

2002 – 2008 – Number of RBs over 300 points in one season = 31 running backs

2002 – 2008 – Number of RBs over 400 points in one season = five running backs

2009 – 2014 – Number of RBs over 300 points in one season = 19 running backs

2009 – 2014 – Number of RBs over 400 points in one season = ZERO running backs

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2015 was no different with zero backs over 400 points and only one over 300 points (Devonta Freeman). Adrian Peterson was a distant second with 266.7 points. In fact, there hasn’t been a 400 point running back since 2006, when LaDainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson both did it!

So, as we head into 2016, there are a ton of questions with all of the running backs even the studs. Can Jamaal Charles come back from injury and regain his top five status? Can Freeman repeat his out-of-nowhere performance from 2015?

Is Todd Gurley capable of living up to his high ADP? Who are some undervalued backs that may help my team in 2016?

This is where the clutch games and consistency play a key role in identifying the consistently excellent backs that can help you win a championship versus the very good, yet inconsistent backs that will cause you headaches. So, let’s review 2015 for the running backs (under the PPR format) and look at those players whom were consistently good, just good and consistently not-so-good. We’re also going to look at this position for the expected and unexpected running backs within each tier in 2015, plus which running backs could be undervalued going into this year’s draft.

So, let’s start with the top tier of running backs as ranked by their Clutch Rating (CR).

TIER ONE

Player Name	Total Points	Rank	Total CG	Total GP	CR
Mark Ingram	203.40	12	11	12	92%
Matt Forte	214.70	6	11	13	85%
LeSean McCoy	180.70	18	10	12	83%
Devonta Freeman	320.90	1	12	15	80%
Jamaal Charles	105.10	49	4	5	80%

The Expected

You may be interested to know that Ingram in this tier is expected. Ingram last season earned a 77% Clutch Rating. He was at the torrid 92% Clutch Rating until injuries took their toll again on Ingram. This is certainly his biggest problem. His current ADP of RB9 at around pick 20 is solid. Not too high or too low. However, when you realize you’re getting the No. 1 consistent running back from 2015 at that spot, you’ll feel much better.

Forte is also expected to be in this tier. In fact, Forte is the most consistent running back over the past three seasons and only one of two backs who have earned a triple-double over the past three seasons.

Forte jumped to the Jets in the offseason and still has plenty “left in the tank” to be a consistent running back in 2016. His current ADP is RB13 at around pick 31. I believe this is excellent value for Forte as an RB2 on your team.

The Unexpected

I have to say that I did not expect to see McCoy stay here in the first tier. His move to Buffalo seemed like a bad idea. And to be honest, his injuries kept his total points down but his consistency stayed at an excellent 83%. His current ADP is RB16 and at 38^th overall. I would be perfectly fine with Forte and McCoy as my two running backs in 2016.

The biggest unexpected in this tier by far was the emergence and domination of the fantasy world by Freeman. An injury to Tevin Coleman handed Freeman the starting job in Atlanta and took off with it. He never slowed down earning clutch games through Weeks 15-17. The only question is if he can he do it again. I believe his consistency will continue around the 75-80% but I would not expect the huge total fantasy points (i.e., over 300 points).

TIER TWO

Player Name	Total Points	Rank	Total CG	Total GP	CR
Todd Gurley	210.60	8	10	13	77%
Adrian Peterson	266.70	2	12	16	75%
T.J. Yeldon	155.90	27	9	12	75%
Arian Foster	79.00	65	3	4	75%
Doug Martin	205.50	11	11	15	73%
Karlos Williams	126.30	38	8	11	73%
Dion Lewis	122.20	43	5	7	71%

The Expected

While we normally see Peterson in Tier 1, being in Tier 2 with a No. 2 overall ranking in total points isn’t too bad. 75% Clutch is pretty good but for Peterson’s standards, it’s still lower than normal. He’s certainly a top 3 running back regardless in 2016.

Foster is a normal resident of Tier 1 or 2 every year, but his injuries make his status too risky for 2016. He could be a great value in the drafts iF he comes back healthy and to a good team. Keep an eye on him this summer.

Gurley being one of highest drafted running backs in past number of years certainly set expectations extremely high. His slow start to the season due to injuries made fantasy owners question him but he proved them all wrong by earning a 77% Clutch rating over the remaining 13 games. He’s currently ranked as high as the No. 1 running back heading into 2016. I believe he’s top 5 material, but No. 1? I’m not so sure.

The Unexpected

Yeldon performed at an unexpected level in 2015. His 75% Clutch rating almost matched No. 1 rookie running back, Gurley. Surprisingly though, the Jaguars picked up Chris Ivory through free agency. This will hurt Yeldon’s value in the fantasy drafts. However, he could be an excellent undervalued player, so keep an eye on his ADP come draft time.

Martin saw dollar signs in 2015 as he kicked it up a notch to earn a big, new contract and he got it from the Bucs! So, will he go back to being oblivious and injured like he had the past three season prior or not? I can’t trust him, sorry.

Williams backed up and complimented LeSean McCoy in Buffalo. It’s hard to trust that scenario happening again in 2016.

Lewis was very productive during his brief time as the main starter in New England. His return to the Pats could allow him to be extremely undervalued in PPR leagues. Watch to see if the Patriots signed anyone other than Donald Brown this off-season.

TIER THREE

Player Name	Total Points	Rank	Total CG	Total GP	CR
Jonathan Stewart	166.80	22	9	13	69%
Danny Woodhead	233.40	5	10	15	67%
Le’Veon Bell	111.20	46	4	6	67%
David Johnson	211.80	7	10	16	63%
Darren McFadden	199.70	13	10	16	63%
Frank Gore	199.40	14	10	16	63%
Chris Ivory	206.70	10	9	15	60%
DeMarco Murray	188.10	15	9	15	60%
Justin Forsett	122.40	42	6	10	60%

The Expected

When you are expected to be in Tier 3, you are good, but not great. Stewart certainly fits this category. He had a solid year but as always, he couldn’t stay healthy all season.

Woodhead actually had the same 67% Clutch rating in 2013 but ended the season ranked 12^th instead of fifth. I do expect Woodhead to be a solid RB3 or RB4 pick in the PPR drafts.

Gore, Ivory and Forsett are normally in this range but I’m not sure what to expect from these players in 2016. Gore may be solid but he isn’t getting any younger. Ivory went to the Jaguars to share carries with Yeldon and certainly won’t match those numbers that he had in 2015. Forsett should return and be the main back in Baltimore and could be the best pick of these three. If his ADP is in the middle rounds, he’s certainly worth the pick as your RB2 or RB3.

The Unexpected

Bell in this tier and definitely unexpected. His injury destroyed many fantasy teams unless you drafted Williams as well. A healthy Bell should finish the season in Tier 1 without any concern.

Johnson earned six of seven clutch games at the end of the season and became an instant hype for 2016! I’ve seen him ranked as high as No. 2 or No. 3 running back overall. That’s a little overvalued for my taste. I’d let someone else take him that high.

McFadden certainly had an unexpected season in Dallas. He ended the year 13^th in total Fantasy points and had a respectable 63% Clutch Rating. Yet, the Cowboys still signed Alfred Morris in free agency to “compliment” him. Great.

Murray was expected to be in the top tier after signing with the Eagles last year. He didn’t. In fact, his 15^th overall ranking and 60% Clutch Rating seems decent but he earned seven of the nine clutch games through Week 11. He only earned two the rest of the year and was benched at one point. He went to the Titans this off-season, so we’ll see if that helps. I’m staying away at this point.

TIER FOUR

Player Name	Total Points	Rank	Total CG	Total GP	CR
DeAngelo Williams	233.40	4	9	16	56%
Latavius Murray	206.80	9	9	16	56%
Theo Riddick	181.00	17	9	16	56%
Rashad Jennings	168.90	21	9	16	56%
Ronnie Hillman	163.40	25	9	16	56%
Bilal Powell	135.10	34	6	11	55%
Lamar Miller	233.90	3	8	16	50%
Giovani Bernard	181.20	16	8	16	50%
Jeremy Hill	174.30	19	8	16	50%
Eddie Lacy	144.60	32	7	15	47%

The remaining running backs range from washed up veterans like Jennings and Hillman to former consistent players like Lacy, Hill and Bernard. It does include some potential breakout players heading into 2016 like Murray and Miller. It’s tough to predict where any of these players will be in 2016, but at least they were above a 50 percent Clutch Rating which is better than the remaining running backs that didn’t make the top four tiers.

Well, there are your clutch game consistency rankings for the running backs in 2015. If you didn’t make the playoffs and you had Lacy or Hill on your team and can’t understand why, I hope this helped clear things up.

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Featured Pros NFL Devonta Freeman Adrian Peterson Steven Jackson Jamaal Charles Todd Gurley Mark Ingram Matt Forte LeSean McCoy Tevin Coleman T.J. Yeldon Arian Foster Doug Martin Karlos Williams Dion Lewis Chris Ivory Donald Brown Jonathan Stewart Danny Woodhead Le’Veon Bell David Johnson Darren McFadden Frank Gore DeMarco Murray Justin Forsett Alfred Morris DeAngelo Williams Latavius Murray Theo Riddick Rashad Jennings Ronnie Hillman Bilal Powell Lamar Miller Giovani Bernard Jeremy Hill Eddie Lacy