There are many reasons why it makes sense to consider streaming QBs during the season

Back in 2013, I was fighting for my fantasy football life. It was Week 13, the final week before the playoffs, and I needed a win to go to the dance. With the Bears-Cowboys matchup on Monday Night Football looming, I needed a big game to make up a large deficit. My QB was Tony Romo, whom I had drafted with a fairly decent pick and who had started for me every week of the season he had been healthy.

That day, a buddy of mine called me and said, “Why don’t you pick up and start Josh McCown? He’s been great and the Cowboys’ defense is horrendous.” I scoffed at the idea. I wasn’t going to bench my solid QB for a former backup just because he has a cake matchup. I went with Romo and felt fine about it. Of course, McCown threw for four touchdowns and ran for another. Had I started McCown, I not only make the playoffs, but I win the championship (does anyone else map out their playoff opponents and figure out what the results would have been had they made the playoffs?).

After that fateful Monday night, I vowed that I was no longer going to force myself to stick with my drafted QB under any circumstance, and instead was going to be open to streaming my QBs based on matchups. And I’ve been a happier man for it. Because streaming QBs works.

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Anyone who has read my articles discussing fantasy baseball knows that I love to get nerdy as much as the next analyst. But, I’m not going to explain why the strategy of streaming QBs works using coefficient of variation, standard deviation metrics, or compsognathus longpipes (ok, that last one was just a type of dinosaur, but I bet you thought it was an advanced math term, right?). If I did, it would just be a fancy way of showing you that a) QB performance is more predictable week-to-week than RB or WR performance and b) the top QBs and the lower tier QBs do not differ as much as the top and lower tier RBs or WRs.

So, let’s ditch the fancy math and talk about why streaming QBs makes sense in a way that you can explain to your mom when you’re telling her about it over coffee this weekend (I assume, like me, you meet your mother for coffee every week and talk about fantasy sports, right? No? Just me?). First of all, fantasy football is all about depth at running back and wide receiver. You need to be able to survive the six inevitable injuries that will hit your starting group, and you have to be able to deal with bye weeks. I love when my opponents take QBs early because I know it means that I’ll be able to grab quality RBs and WRs. So, number one – if you stream QBs, you’ll be able to load up on running backs and wide receivers in the early rounds of your draft, rather than spending a critical pick on a QB.

Second, I feel like there’s this general consensus in the fantasy community that elite quarterbacks are just safe, guaranteed production. But, that’s simply not true. Let’s take a look at the top 12 QBs based on ADP from 2015. The first column is the round and pick they were drafted, and the second column is their end-of-season ranking for QBs (ending in Week 16, when most sane fantasy football leagues end their seasons).

Of the 12 QBs drafted to be starters in standard leagues, only five of them finished in the top 12. Andrew Luck was ineffective and injured. Aaron Rodgers was solid but far from his usual superstar self. Peyton Manning was Chad Pennington after his third shoulder surgery.

Meanwhile, Cam Newton (10.8, 15th QB drafted), Blake Bortles (13.6, 22nd QB drafted), and Carson Palmer (11.7, 17th QB drafted) finished as the 1st, 4th, and 5th ranked fantasy QB, respectively. The idea that there is more safety in the elite QBs just isn’t true. So, number two – streaming QBs make sense because the top QBs aren’t all that safe.

Ok, so we’ve now established that there are good reasons for not wasting a high pick on a QB. But can we stream our way to a title? Well, we’re rolling with these charts now, so let’s keep going with them:

Maybe one or two of those guys were drafted in your league last season. Yet each of those QBs was a top-5 performer during his respective week, and each one was widely available on waiver wires during his top-5 week.

Now, before you get all huffy, yes, if I wanted to, I could find RBs and WRs who were not drafted but who finished in the top-5 in a given week. But, the problem is simply supply and demand. Most teams roster only one quarterback, but generally three-plus running backs and wide receivers. In other words, you can’t randomly pick up Spencer Ware or Javorius Allen because you like his matchup, because those guys were picked up the second the starting job opened up. And, while it’s fun to watch J.J. Nelson and Markus Wheaton go nuts in random weeks, there is absolutely no way to see those performances coming.

With QBs, it’s different. Some players don’t even roster a backup QB, and so you’ve got a pretty good shot in any given week that you can find a free agent with a fantastic fantasy matchup just sitting on your waiver wire. So, number three – it’s easy and effective to do.

So, there you have it. My non-mathematical, non-dinosaur way of explaining why I think streaming QBs is not just a viable strategy in fantasy, but a winning one. To be clear, this doesn’t mean that you should ignore QBs during the draft. You certainly want to have at least one usable one coming out of the draft, and there’s always a chance that you’ll back into Carson Palmer and find your starter in the late rounds. But, be prepared to stream at any given moment, especially if Josh McCown plays the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.

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Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him @danharris80.