How will Le’Veon Bell’s suspension impact the upcoming fantasy football season?
Derek Lofland discusses the fantasy impact of Le’Veon Bell’s four-game suspension.
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News of a four-game suspension rocked the NFL today, as it was announced that Pittsburgh Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell will miss the first four games of the season for failing the league’s substance abuse policy. It’s a big blow to their offense, as Bell was considered by many to be the top running back in fantasy football this year. I thought that Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR Antonio Brown and Bell could become the first trio to pass for 5,000 yards, post 2,000 yards receiving and 2,000 yards rushing in the same season. However, that will not happen now and the Steelers are also dealing with a year-long suspension to WR Martavis Bryant. This news of Bell’s suspension could not come at a worse time for their organization.
As for the fantasy implications, I do not think much changes for Brown and Big Ben. Brown is still the best fantasy receiver in the NFL and Big Ben is still a low QB1. He may see increased value at the beginning of the season, but I would not significantly change where I rank him. Injury concerns are the big reason I have him outside the top-5 and the Bell suspension does not change that concern. Players that see a slight uptick early in the season are TE Ladarius Green, WR Sammie Coates and WR Markus Wheaton. With Bell suspended the first four games, they will probably need to throw the ball more and these players could see more targets in those games. I would not change how I draft them much. A few more targets early in the season is not enough to justify a massive shakeup in their overall rankings.
Bell goes from being a high RB1 to a low RB1 or high RB2. Four games is 25% of the season, so even if he duplicates his per game production from 2013, when he had 2,215 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns, that would knock him down to 1,661 yards from scrimmage and 8.25 touchdowns. That is probably expecting a lot out of him. I think 1,300 yards from scrimmage and 7-to-9 touchdowns is more realistic. You will also not be able to play him for 25% of your games, and you will have to waste a high pick on RB DeAngelo Williams to be a handcuff. I probably would not draft Bell until the third round. It’s too expensive to have a star player miss four games and not know what his conditioning will be when he returns. Bell was lights out coming off a two-game suspension last year, but managed to play only six games before missing the rest of the season.
Williams will have high RB1 value early in the season and is a great stash if Bell were to suffer an injury or another suspension. It is impossible to know what will happen to Williams’ ADP coming out of this since Bell owners will probably have to overdraft him to protect themselves. I could see Williams going anywhere from the fifth to eighth round, depending on how hawkish fantasy owners are about him early in the season.
Overall, it is a bad development for fantasy owners. This is a suspension that leaves fantasy owners scrambling to reorganize their draft boards.
