Could Sammy Watkins emerge as one of the top receivers from this draft class?

Eric Moody discusses which third-year wideouts will provide the best production for fantasy teams this season.

Have you ever targeted wide receivers entering their third season in the NFL? The belief is that receivers do not break out until their third season in the league. Recent history has taught us that wide receivers can break out as a rookie or second-year players. The context of the player’s team situation and how they performed when given an opportunity are the ideal ways to determine if they will break out. This article will rank wide receivers entering their third season along with provide an analysis of which players represent values (or reaches) at their current average draft position (ADP).

Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)
Beckham is worthy of his ADP heading into 2015. He has the ability to singlehandedly win fantasy weeks for you. Beckham has only played 27 career games, 1,831 snaps, and has generated 2.28 fantasy points per touch. The Giants offense has flourished under the direction of Ben McAdoo. The team tied the Patriots for the most passing touchdowns (36) in 2015 and scored offensive points on 38.2% of their drives. Beckham had the tenth highest DYAR (304) according to Fantasy Outsiders. DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) gives the value of the performance on plays where the wide receiver caught the ball, compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR essentially means a wide receiver with more total value. Beckham has the potential to dethrone Antonio Brown as the top fantasy wide receiver in 2016 with my projection of 170 targets, 110 receptions, 1,576 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns.

Allen Robinson (JAC)
Robinson was championed as a breakout candidate according to NFL.com and Football Guys writer Matt Harmon leveraging his Reception Perception methodology. He delivered on the hype generating 2.8 fantasy points per touch and 17.5 yards per reception. Robinson had seven games where he had 10 or more targets and exceeded 100 receiving yards in six games. He had the eighth-highest DYAR (318) according to Fantasy Outsiders. The Jaguars had the fifth highest number of passing touchdowns (35) in the NFL. Robinson played 987 offensive snaps and was targeted on 15.3 percent of them. His TD production is due to regress in 2015, but my projection of 135 targets, 82 receptions, 1,260 receiving yards, and ten touchdowns will still allow Robinson to finish 2016 as a WR1 in order to justify his ADP.

Mike Evans (TB)
Evans helped win fantasy leagues in 2014 with 68 receptions, 1,051 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns. Many fantasy players were optimistic about what he would bring to the table in 2016. Evans finished the season with more receiving yards (1,206), but only scored three touchdowns. He played 863 offensive snaps and was targeted on 17.3 percent of them. Evans had the tenth most targets (148) amongst wide receivers last season which included 17 targets in the red zone. He had his fair share of adversity in 2016 which included a preseason hamstring injury, numerous drops, and becoming acclimated with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston. Evans averaged 16.3 yards per reception and is only 22 years old. The Buccaneers offense, under coordinator Dirk Koetter, produced the fifth most total yards (6,011) in the NFL last season. Evans is an excellent bounce-back candidate with a reasonable ADP and high-end WR1 upside.

Brandin Cooks (NO)
Cooks came alive the second half of 2015 for the Saints. The team ran the fourth highest number of plays (1,096) and had the second-most pass attempts (667) in the NFL. The Saints defense will still be a liability in 2016. Cooks produced 1.84 fantasy points per touch last season. He had 8 or more targets in 10 games and averaged 8.8 yards per target in 2015. Cooks is only 22 years old and is the number one wide receiver in the Saints explosive offense which scores points on 36.3 percent of its offensive drives. He is a value at his current ADP and has the potential to lead the NFL in targets. Cooks and the Saints will be in a number of high-scoring games in the NFC South. A division that includes the Panthers, Buccaneers, and Falcons.

Sammy Watkins (BUF)
Watkins is a fantasy difference maker when healthy. He had hip surgery last offseason and is currently recovering from foot surgery. He produced 2.64 fantasy points per touch last season. Watkins scored double-digit fantasy points in eight games last season. He scored 20 points or more in three games. Watkins had the ninth highest DVOA (301) amongst wide receivers in 2015 according to Fantasy Outsiders. He has the upside to win weeks for you, but Watkins’ ADP requires owners to invest a high draft pick.

Kelvin Benjamin (CAR)
Benjamin is a wide receiver that elicits a number of reactions from fantasy players. He was thrust in the role of Cam Newton’s number one wide receiver back in 2014. Benjamin had 11 drops and was force fed 145 targets as a rookie. Four of his nine touchdowns came in garbage time. Benjamin missed the 2015 season after suffering a season-ending ACL injury. He has very good play strength, catching radius, and length you want in a starting wide receiver. Cam Newton and the Panthers offense improved in 2015. The passing game in Carolina will revolve around Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen. If you can draft him a round or two outside of his current ADP that would be ideal. This may be possible due to the negative buzz surrounding Benjamin. For a more detailed take on him check out my article on RotoViz.

Jarvis Landry (MIA)
The only wide receivers with more targets than Landry in 2015 were Brandon Marshall, Demaryius Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown. He caught 66.5 percent of his targets, played 980 snaps, and was targeted on 17 percent of his snaps. Landry only averaged 6.9 yards per target and scored four receiving touchdowns. My primary concern with Landry in 2016 is target regression. He will compete for targets with rookie wide receiver Leonte Carroo and emerging second-year wide receiver DeVante Parker who will start as the X wide receiver in Adam Gase’s offensive scheme. Landry is a reach at his current ADP.

Jordan Matthews (PHI)
Matthews was a frustrating player to own in 2015 due to his inconsistent production. He ran a high percentage of his routes lined up as a slot receiver. Matthews had a DVOA of -1.8 according to Fantasy Outsiders which ranked 52nd amongst wide receivers. He played 921 offensive snaps and was targeted on 13.9 percent of them. The Eagles have a new head coach in Doug Pederson, a new offensive coordinator, and a new offensive philosophy. Matthews is entrenched as the number one wide receiver. He is a value at his current ADP. Pederson’s offense uses West Coast principles while incorporating concepts from a spread offense. Matthews will have opportunities in this offensive scheme to be successful. He is a value at his current ADP.

Donte Moncrief (IND)
Moncrief is a breakout wide receiver who is on the radar of a ton of fantasy owners. He caught 61 percent of his targets and scored six touchdowns in 2015. Moncrief generated 1.71 fantasy points per touch last season and played the second most offensive snaps (874) amongst the Colts wide receivers. He is in a great position to fill the target void left by Andre Johnson and Coby Fleener. The Colts offense should get back on track with a healthy Andrew Luck under center in 2016. Back in 2014 the team scored points on 39.5% of its offensive drives and scored 42 passing touchdowns. Moncrief is a value at his ADP and has an opportunity to provide WR1 upside in 2016.

John Brown (ARI)
Brown had the second most targets amongst Cardinals wide receivers and is a value at his ADP. He had the fifth highest DVOA (352) amongst wide receivers last season according to Fantasy Outsiders. Brown scored higher in the metric than Cardinals wide receiver Michael Floyd. Bruce Arians’ offensive scheme does not feature one wide receiver. The target distribution was very balanced in 2015. The Cardinals offense likes to attack defenses vertically. The team scored points on 42.5 percent of its offensive drives, threw the fourth most passing touchdowns (35), and produced the highest net yards per pass attempt (7.8) in the NFL last season. This is an offense you want to own a piece of for your fantasy team in 2016.

Jeff Janis (GB)
Janis is another wide receiver who has generated a lot of attention. The struggles of Packers wide receiver Davante Adams were well documented last season. Janis was a candidate to replace him in the offense. He only played 419 snaps last season and received 12 targets during the regular season. Things finally came together for Janis in the playoff game against the Cardinals. He stepped up once Randall Cobb left the game with a chest injury to the tune of seven receptions, 145 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. It remains to be seen if he has earned the trust of quarterback Aaron Rodgers heading into 2016. Janis is a value at his ADP and the Packers offense will be improved this season with the return of Jordy Nelson. This was an offense that scored points on 46.5 percent of its drives and scored the third most passing touchdowns (38) in the NFL back in 2014.

Bruce Ellington (SF)
Ellington is a wide receiver to monitor with the 49ers. He has very good explosiveness, hands, and the ability to make plays. Ellington has an opportunity to flourish out of the slot in Chip Kelly’s offensive scheme. He had a very high SPARQ score (Nike’s metric to measure athleticism). Ellington score ranked higher coming out of college than Odell Beckham and Brandin Cooks. He is a wide receiver who is essentially free at his ADP. Ellington has an opportunity to emerge in 2016 and to become the 49ers wide receiver to own in fantasy.

Conclusion

Remember not all third year wide receivers are created equal. The personnel surrounding them and the offensive scheme are important factors to consider. My favorite targets being drafted outside of the first three rounds are John Brown, Donte Moncrief, and Bruce Ellington. All three wide receivers are likely to receive a high number of targets, are part of offensive schemes to score a ton of points, and are in a position to greatly outperform their average draft position. The factors mentioned above are ultimately what made third year wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen successful heading into the 2015 season. Who are you favorite third-year wide receivers in 2016? Feel free to leave a comment below or reach out via Twitter to discuss.

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