Will the Dolphins’ new offensive toy help fantasy teams this season?
As Henry Hodgson of NFL.com posted, the Miami Dolphins quest to recreate the 2010 Houston Texans squad took a further step towards completion with the capture of Arian Foster who was released by the team after a franchise record 6,472 rushing yards, 54 rushing touchdowns and a further 2268 yards in receptions (14 scores). Does he still have fantasy appeal in his new home?
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The Dolphins have been in the search for a veteran presence at running back ever since new coach Adam Gase finished signing his contract. They offered C.J. Anderson a contract worth $18m that was eventually matched by the Denver Broncos, they saw Chris Johnson accept less money with the Arizona Cardinals to remain in the desert, and all this after claiming that second year running back Jay Ajayi had “separated from the other Dolphins RBs.”Foster brings a serious pedigree with him, with
Foster brings a serious pedigree with him, with a career yards per carry mark of four and a half, an average of over 19 carries per contest and more than three catches (and over 30 yards) per game. These stats as a runner and receiver have further enhanced the fact that he has simply been one of the best running backs in the NFL ever since entering the league as an undrafted free agent in 2009. His initial contract with the Dolphins is not excessive in itself, but it is a greater financial commitment than any other running back on the current roster is receiving. In his three seasons as an offensive coordinator, Adam Gase’s lead running back has been tasked with 47 percent of total team carries, as well as seeing 10% of total team targets in the passing game. Back in 2013, Knowshon Moreno converted his 74 targets into 60 catches for 548 yards. Injury ended Foster’s 2015 season after just four games, but in those contests he saw 28 targets, reeling in 22 of them for 227 yards and two scores. Assuming he is fit and healthy, he has brought in to contribute for the Dolphins, not to hold the hand of youngsters like Ajayi and Kenyan Drake.
Assuming he is fit and healthy has been a major issue with Foster, however. He has not played in all 16 games of an NFL season since 2012 (a season that saw him carry the ball 351 times for 1424 yards and 15 scores), and his list of injuries is extensive, as shown by SportsInjuryPredictor.com. His plethora of lower body injuries were evident before his 2015 season was brought to a premature end, as he looked ordinary as a runner for the first time in his career. He averaged a shade over two and a half yards per carry, by far the lowest of his career. It would be a shock, assuming he remains fit through camp and wins the starting job, if he were to play in all 16 games.
What does this do for his fantasy appeal? According to current Average Draft Position data from MFL10s, he was being taken as the 46th running back before he signed by the Dolphins. This places him in RB4 territory. If he plays for the majority of the season, he will exceed this value, with his skills as a pass catcher a useful string to his bow in ensuring he sees ample playing time. But he is quite simply a ticking time bomb when it comes to injury. As a secondary part of your roster, he could help you get over in certain weeks. But if you plan on hitching your wagon to him as your stud running back, 2010 called. They want to offer you some receiver named Andre Johnson…
Neil Dutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Neil, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @ndutton13.
