Moving out of the slot isn’t the only reason Jarvis Landry could lose targets this year
While looking at the WR target leaders from last year, there are a few names jumping out that scream regression for this upcoming season. Whether a change in offensive philosophy, a QB downgrade or the addition of offensive weapons, there are several strong candidates for target regression this upcoming season.
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Demaryius Thomas (DEN) – WR16, OVR No. 29
Last season Thomas saw a healthy 177 targets, good for top four among all WRs. With a shaky QB situation and the likely Broncos formula of ball control and defense, it’s hard to see Thomas remaining in the top tier of WRs for targets. A healthy Emmanuel Sanders could push him for the team lead in targets, as Sanders looked better while playing through various injuries last year.
It’s clear that beyond those two there aren’t a whole lot of other passing game options, but regression is still almost a certainty. A dip to around 150 targets is a fair projection, which would bring him down to around 10th among WRs. Last year he finished 13th in WR scoring, a decrease in targets this season may continue his slide down the WR ranks.
Jarvis Landry (MIA) – WR24, OVR No. 49
The Miami Dolphins offense may have a new look this season with Adam Gase taking over as head coach. One move reportedly taking place is switching Landry out of the slot where he was peppered for 166 targets last season and moving him out wide, which may open up more big play opportunities but will certainly cut the number of targets headed his way. Second-year WR DeVante Parker is emerging as a threat to unseat Landry’s reign as the target king amongst the Dolphin wideouts, and third-round pick Leonte Carroo and Kenny Stills should be active as well.
TE Jordan Cameron could have a rebound year as well, as Gase has a strong track record of TE success. The recent signing of RB Arian Foster could also take away some targets as QB Ryan Tannehill may have a new safety valve in the form of the pass-catching savant Foster. All these factors point towards Landry having a less targeted season this year.
Allen Robinson (JAX) – WR8, OVR No. 14
It’s hard not to like the talent of Robinson, but the chances of a repeat target load as last season’s 151 targets aren’t great. The Jaguars have a loaded offense, and an improved defense will limit the amount of garbage targets that Robinson saw last season. TE Julius Thomas should emerge this season as a bigger threat after last season’s health struggles.
Also, Marqise Lee, once hyped as a potential star, is once again healthy and will return as the third WR behind Robinson and Allen Hearns, with Rashad Greene also there looking for an opportunity. Combine those threats with a strong running game led by Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon and it’s easy to see a drop of 20-30 targets for Robinson this season.
Michael Crabtree (OAK) – WR37, OVR No. 81
Crabtree returned from oblivion last season to post solid numbers with the Raiders, which included being targeted 146 times. Amari Cooper emerged as a star and will likely step up to overtake Crabtree in targets this season. Likewise, an increased role from TE Clive Walford and fellow WR Seth Roberts will limit the targets for Crabtree as well.
Roberts showed more after-the-catch skills and made an impression on Derek Carr last season, making him an intriguing option while limiting Crabtree’s target upside this season. Walford may replace Crabtree as QB Derek Carr’s safety valve, and rookie RB DeAndre Washington should be involved in the passing game which will also take away from some of Crabtree’s opportunities. While last season was a nice return to relevance and he remains a nice piece in the Oakland offense, Crabtree may fade away from fantasy relevance again this season.
Other regression candidates
- Randall Cobb (GB): 129 targets in 2015 – Jordy is back, plus new target in TE Cook.
- Brandon Marshall (NYJ): 173 targets in 2015 – Hard to repeat last year’s target numbers regardless of QB.
- Golden Tate (DET): 129 targets in 2015 – Don’t sleep on Marvin Jones, TE Ebron may break out in his third season.
- Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): 146 targets in 2015 – Third in Cardinals WR pecking order, return to reality this year.
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Micah Cedergren is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Micah, check out his archive and follow him @mcffinsights.
