6 Quarterbacks to Avoid at Current ADP
At the end of the 2015 fantasy football season quarterbacks made up 20 of the top 25 highest scoring standard league players. That number shrunk to sixteen in PPR leagues. Since the NFL has become such a pass-happy league, QB has become one of the deepest positions in fantasy football. Last year, the difference in points between a QB taken in the first couple of rounds and one taken in the later rounds was less than 25 points. In other words, there is plenty of QB value available to owners in the middle and late rounds of drafts.
This season I will be waiting to draft a QB and using the early rounds to draft stud wide receivers and running backs. I suggest you do the same. Here is a list of six players that I will not be drafting at their current APD.
Cam Newton (CAR): ADP 24, QB1 & Aaron Rodgers (GB): ADP 28, QB2
Newton and Rodgers will both have highly productive 2016 seasons, but to draft them in the second round is too early. By drafting either one of these QBs in the second round, owners will pass on talented players like Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks or Sammy Watkins.
The absolute earliest owners should draft Rodgers or Newton is round three, and even later in PPR leagues.
Blake Bortles (JAC): ADP 74, QB8
Bortles was a breakout star for owners last season, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 35 touchdowns. But a closer look at these numbers reveals that Jacksonville had trouble running the football and trailed in many games last season forcing them to throw a ton. With an improved defense and running game, I expect to see some touchdown regression from Bortles this season.
Bortles is currently being drafted as the eighth best QB in fantasy football over Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Eli Manning. I would confidently draft these three QBs, at their current ADP, over Bortles.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): ADP 55, QB5
Big Ben is a fantastic NFL QB, but I just can’t draft him as a top-five fantasy QB. Roethlisberger has the best WR in the league in Antonio Brown but after that his supporting cast is shaky. With the suspension of Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant and the possible loss of newly acquired TE Ladarius Green, Roethlisberger will have to get production from unproven players such as practice standout WR Sammie Coats.
Roethlisberger is currently being picked over Drew Brees. I would rather draft Brees and wouldn’t look at Big Ben until well after the eighth round.
Tony Romo (DAL): ADP 106, QB11
Romo has an elite WR in Dez Bryant and the best offensive line in the league, as well as a new toy in first-round pick Ezekiel Elliott. With many forecasting Elliott to instantly be an elite RB, Romo is expected to be the QB he was in 2014 when DeMarco Murray led the NFL in rushing. I just don’t trust Romo to stay healthy and he doesn’t seem to properly protect himself when taking a hit.
Andy Dalton (CIN): ADP 126, QB15
Dalton ended up being great value for owners last season, but a lot of things changed in Cincinnati this offseason. They lost WRs Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu to free agency and breakout TE Tyler Eifert is questionable for the start of the season. More importantly, the Bengals lost offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, to the Browns, which will impact Dalton.
I’ll pass on Dalton and draft Jameis Winston, with his running ability and higher upside, or Mathew Stafford, who will be throwing a ton this year.