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9 Undervalued Players Based on ADP

Aug 25, 2016

Let's not forget that Demaryius Thomas played with a shell of Peyton Manning last season which actually hurt his numbers

Let’s not forget that Demaryius Thomas played with a shell of Peyton Manning last season which actually hurt his numbers

The average draft position (ADP) of a player indicates what the overall fantasy population feels about him, but that doesn’t mean it’s always right. Fortunately, at the end of every season, there are players that outperform their draft stock.

Now it’s true you’re not going to want to draft a guy three or four rounds ahead of his ADP simply because you could probably get him a bit later while using your earlier picks on “better” players; but if the player you are eyeing is truly better than where he’s being drafted, then taking him one, maybe even two rounds earlier (depending on where in the round you’re drafting) is a perfectly sound strategy to ensure you’re grabbing a quality player being undervalued. Below, you’ll find who our featured experts feel are undervalued at the WR, RB and QB positions.

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Q1. Name the WR you believe is the most undervalued according to our latest WR ADP Rankings

Demaryius Thomas (DEN)
ADP: #31 Overall | #17 Receiver
“From a pure talent perspective, Demaryius Thomas is a top-five wide receiver, saddled with a rough 2015 — and a rougher WR17 ADP. If you think there are 16 wide receivers with potential for more fantasy points than Thomas, you should step back, rethink the position, and then try again. His 12.4 YPC was more than two yards fewer than his career average, and that bump up, along with a regression of his TDs upward, makes him a top-12 WR, easily.”
David Gonos (DavidGonos.com)

Donte Moncrief (IND)
ADP: #65 Overall | #28 Receiver
“It seems like Moncrief has gained more steam over the last month or so, but he’s still no getting as much attention as he deserves. His numbers were stymied last season when Andrew Luck went down. But before Luck was sidelined, Moncrief caught five touchdowns in the seven games in which Luck played. He was also targeted 55 times in those seven games. If Luck can play a full season, there’s no reason to think Moncrief can’t achieve WR2 numbers, but he’s currently being drafted in WR3 territory. This travesty needs to be corrected.”
Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

Eric Decker (NYJ)
ADP: #51 Overall | #24 Receiver
“In case you haven’t been paying attention (and it seems many have not), Eric Decker has 49 touchdown catches in the past five seasons. That total ranks fifth in the NFL since 2011, putting him in the same territory as Rob Gronkowski, Dez Bryant and Calvin Johnson. As FOXSports.com recently noted, however, no one talks about Decker as one of the best receivers in the league. The return of Ryan Fitzpatrick lends considerable confidence in Decker’s ability to post the kind of totals (80 catches, 1,027 yards and 12 touchdowns on 132 targets) that left him the 11th-ranked fantasy WR last season. I’m fine drafting him at his current ADP. I’m also confident he’ll easily outperform it.”
Bob Harris (Football Diehards)

Q2. Name the RB you believe is the most undervalued according to our latest RB ADP Rankings

Rashad Jennings (NYG)
ADP: #90 Overall | #34 Running Back
“Rashad Jennings sits at RB34, with several NFL tailbacks ahead of him that aren’t even starting on their NFL team. The Giants have committed to him as their featured back, and he came on strong at the end of last season. Plus, he’s a young 31, with fewer than 1,000 career touches.”
David Gonos (DavidGonos.com)

Danny Woodhead (SD)
ADP: #83 Overall | #33 Running Back
“This just in: Danny Woodhead is really good in PPR formats. Last season, he had 97 carries for 335 yards and three touchdowns and 81 catches for 756 yards and six touchdowns. His receptions were the best among running backs. He had at least five catches in nine games and he finished as the No. 12 running back in PPR formats. Even assuming Melvin Gordon emerges as the back the Chargers hoped for when drafting him in the first round of the 2015 draft, Woodhead’s role has been plenty consistent. He posted similar stats in 2013 (106 carries for 429 yards and two touchdowns and 76 catches for 605 yards and six touchdowns) before getting hurt in 2014. It’s hard to find a better value play at the position in PPR formats.”
Bob Harris (Football Diehards)

Jeremy Hill (CIN)
ADP: #52 Overall | #20 Running Back
“Jeremy Hill has to be one of the most unsung running backs in the NFL entering the 2016 season, at least from a fantasy perspective. Giovani Bernard is one reason for the lack of deserved attention, but Hill has more than held his own opposite his counterpart. Hill was actually tied for the NFL-lead with 11 rushing touchdowns last season, and he has run for 20 touchdowns in his first two seasons. He finished as the No. 14 running back in standard scoring last year but is only the 20th running back being drafted on average. Don’t let Bernard deter your attention from Hill. He may not be involved in the passing game much, but his knack for finding the endzone makes up for it.”
Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

Q3. Name the QB you believe is the most undervalued according to our latest QB ADP Rankings

Tyrod Taylor (BUF)
ADP: #122 Overall | #16 Quarterback
“Right now it’s either Tyrod Taylor or Marcus Mariota for me, but I’ll side with Tyrod Taylor. He’s coming off a nice contract extension and was the No. 18 quarterback last year despite playing in just 14 games. He doesn’t have the best supporting cast in the league, but Sammy Watkins will be healthy to start the season and don’t be surprised to see Charles Clay reemerge after a disappointing 2015 campaign. Taylor took care of the ball last year, too. He threw 20 touchdowns to only six interceptions, and he has the running ability to vault himself into QB1 status in 2016, managing more rushing yards (568) than every other quarterback last year except Cam Newton (636). Taylor is a borderline No. 1 fantasy quarterback. There’s no way he should be the 16th quarterback off the board.”
Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

Matthew Stafford (DET)
ADP: #133 Overall | #18 Quarterback
“Half a season of Jim Bob Cooter was not enough for the Lions, who promoted him from interim to permanent offensive coordinator in January. Remember, the offense turned around sharply when Cooter replaced Joe Lombardi mid-season, with Stafford openly praising the difference it made. And why wouldn’t he? As ESPN’s Matthew Berry pointed out, Cooter was promoted in Week 8. From Weeks 10-17 (the Lions were off Week 9), Stafford ranked first in completions, second in completion percentage and had more than 310 passing yards or multiple touchdown passes each of those weeks. He was tied for third in touchdown passes, fifth in passing yards and threw just two interceptions. He was fourth in fantasy points during that stretch. Yes, there are changes, none more notable than the absence of Calvin Johnson. The Lions have retooled their receiving corps, signing top free agent Marvin Jones to replace Johnson and adding Anquan Boldin to play the slot. The still have Golden Tate, who led the Lions in receptions the last two years. They’ll also lean heavily on Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick. In addition, the Lions’ long-standing failure to establish a strong rushing attack means lots of passing attempts. As in at least 600 every season since 2011 except last year, when he “dipped” 592 tosses.”
Bob Harris (Football Diehards)

Brock Osweiler (HOU)
ADP: #171 Overall | #25 Quarterback
“I think Brock Osweiler as the QB25 is pretty late, and the individual ADP numbers for different draft sites agrees with me. They all have him at 22 or 23. Not that he’s a world-beater, but he’s coming into his second season as a starter (first, full-time), and he’ll have DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller as fierce pass-catching weapons.”
David Gonos (DavidGonos.com)

Thank you to the experts for naming their undervalued players. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and check out our latest podcast for more advice.

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