Is Aaron Rodgers turning into Alex Smith?
R.C. Fischer discusses Five Fantasy Football Things We Learned From Week 3.
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After each week of preseason games, I’ll be discussing things that stood out to me — things I believe the football media is shaping the wrong way or has totally overlooked. Here’s my take after watching all the Week 3 contests…
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5) The worst thing ever said about a running back, ever…
Jordan Howard entered the Bears-Cowboys game and instantly looked like the best running back on the roster (which he is) reeling off a 36-yard run on his first touch of the night. To which, Chris Collinsworth praised Howard’s talents and tough running style — and then added commentary on how Howard’s style is different than Jeremy Langford’s because “It’s really not his (Langford) his strength, breaking tackles or making moves on people.”
Well, this Langford guy sounds like a real delight!
Your Langford fantasy stock is useless – because Collinsworth is 100% correct about Langford’s lack of skills, although he neglected to mention he can’t catch a football well either.
Collinsworth’s commentary made official what has been true since 2015 – Langford is ‘dead money’ for fantasy. Jordan Howard is the ‘future,’ at least for 2016. He’s a ‘Ditka-style’ runner.
4) Aaron Rodgers is the new Alex Smith…
I like Aaron Rodgers the NFL quarterback, but I’ve seen the fadeaway in his passing numbers for a season+ now…for fantasy I’m a seller, selling very high, while people still ‘believe’ in him as a top 3 fantasy QB.
Rodgers passed for 205 yards Sunday, marking the eighth time he has thrown for less than 220 yards in a game in his last 12 games (including playoffs)…Alex Smith has done so seven times in his last 12 games (including playoffs).
Rodgers has not thrown for 300+ yards in a game in that 12-game span (Smith has once), and Week 3 was his first time in these last 12 games where Rodgers has thrown for more than 2 TDs in a game (Smith hasn’t).
You’re going to be asked to believe that ‘all is well now’ and to ‘R-E-L-A-X’ because Jordy Nelson is back. Jordy looks OK, but Randall Cobb is M.I.A., their No. 3 WR group is a carousel of sadness, their two tight ends equal no tight ends, and Eddie Lacy offers zero help establishing a run threat. The surrounding circumstances are holding Rodgers down.
In this game, Rodgers got his four passing TDs in 22 minutes of play, and then couldn’t lead another TD drive the final 38 minutes as Detroit took advantage and nearly came back to win. Rodgers couldn’t answer. The old Aaron Rodgers would have ended up with 7-8 TDs passes after that hot start. Rodgers has great name value in general, and now a four-TD day to hold up as ‘gold’…I suggest you trade him white hot while you can.
3) Is the end of Brandon Marshall era nearing?
We’ve all seen wide receivers who are getting up there in football age, and go from good/great one season to completely falling off the radar the next…falling off for good. Andre Johnson and Marvin Harrison are two recent examples that come to mind. Is Brandon Marshall about to join that group?
I know he has the leg injury from Week 2, but he was able to take a few series off and come back to produce in Week 2…and he started and was a target right away in Week 3. The old Brandon Marshall was a presence – playing with swagger and imposing his will. 2016 Brandon Marshall doesn’t have that same ‘look,’ and has connected on just 53% of his targets (a career-low pace) and has not hit 35 yards receiving in a game in two out of three games this season.
Marshall hasn’t looked the same to me going back to Week 1. I could be seeing ghosts, but the numbers and the movements are not ‘Marshall like,’ Quincy Enunwa is suddenly a thing/main target, and Seattle-Pittsburgh-Arizona lie ahead. It may be time to hop off this Marshall train before it runs off the tracks for good.
2) Fear your guy facing the Denver defense…and now the Vikings’ defense
We all know — in almost all cases, you should bench your offensive weapons when they are facing the Denver Broncos. Opposing the Broncos is just not fertile ground for fantasy numbers…no matter how good your guy is. The Vikings are trying to become that type of daunting opposition as well.
No running back has rushed for over 50 yards against the Vikings this season. Quarterbacks have posted three passing TDs with five interceptions so far in 2016. Opposing offenses have given up nine turnovers to the Vikings defense (16 turnovers forced in their past six regular season games). Eli Manning, OBJ, and no visible run game from New York face them in Week 4.
1) Eddie Lacy Gave You His Two Weeks’ Notice…
Holders of Lacy are like: “Finally! Finally, he had a good game!” You think it is a sign of better days ahead? You’re mistaken…
A 100+ yard rushing effort in Week 3 seems like a big step in the right direction to solidify your RB needs for 2016. But it’s not. It was just a great, lucky opportunity for you to strike a deal to move Lacy in the next two weeks (Week 4 bye for GB).
This Week 3 effort was not Lacy grinding away as the Packers jumped on his back and rode him. This was Lacy’s usual do-nothing-early-and-cause-frustration game…so much so he was out for at least three drives in a row as Green Bay extended the lead in the first half. He wasn’t sitting for ‘a rest’ either…it was because he was going nowhere on his touches. Five carries for 16 yards in the first quarter, and a flopped screen pass attempt (because he’s too slow to get into position anymore). He cranked off a 25-yard run as time was winding down in the first half versus a demoralized Lions defense, then down 31–3, which propped up his first-half numbers. He had a few decent runs in the third quarter, but as the game tightened late, Lacy couldn’t deliver the knockout punches like he used to.
Nothing about this game was normal, but in the parts where it was more ‘normal’ or ‘a ball game’…early and late, versus the blowout/shootout in the middle, Lacy was non-factor. The ‘it’ is gone with Lacy, no different than last year. James Starks could be creeping back into a timeshare again (like this time last year), and then there will be chaos for fantasy – ask people who got destroyed by Lacy last year in fantasy. Don’t hold onto the ‘Lacy of Christmas past.’ Sell him off on a high note now. Consider grabbing James Starks as a long-shot RB investment as well.
