Mike Evans could put up huge numbers Week 1
Welcome to the first edition of “According to Vegas”. What we will do in this article is look at the Vegas odds to determine where or how we should allocate our spending in daily fantasy contests. The important thing to remember with this is that you will not be the only one doing it. This is one of the most common strategies in daily fantasy because the house wins more than it loses, so its opinion carries a great deal of weight. We will use what Vegas is telling us to formulate information that can be used to make tournament-winning DFS lineups.
Enter the NFL Sunday Million for your chance at a $200k top prize 
Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints – Total: 51; Spread: -1
I’m starting with the game that I expect to see the most ownership. Since the schedule was released, and then the fantasy sites released their picks, The Raiders vs. Saints game as been on the minds of fantasy players everywhere. Vegas doesn’t disagree, giving it the second-highest point total on the day, and one of two games that are a virtual pick ‘em. The other is the Bengals vs. the Jets.
We know we can rule two options out of this game immediately; the Raiders defense and the Saints defense, as there will be none of that played in this game. The good news is that there are a lot of other options within this game to choose from. Starting with the Raiders side of the ball, we can look to their signal caller, Derek Carr, who makes a nice play at his price of $7.7k on FanDuel. He will be a very popular play as the Saints should still be a wreck on defense, and Vegas agrees with that. In terms of looking at his options, Amari Cooper jumps out as being the top option, and he is priced reasonably at $7.1k. Further down the list, we’ve got Michael Crabtree, who is priced very attractively at $6.1k. He should be another highly-owned option, as fantasy players will see him as being a horizontal replacement to Cooper with a $1k savings. If you want to take some deep tournament pivots, I would look to WR Seth Roberts at $5.1k and TE Clive Walford at $4.7k. Walford may be second on the team’s depth chart at the position, but I think he’ll be the guy they use this year. Finally, Latavius Murray should make a fine play here at $6.6k. I’m not sure he’s going to make it the whole year as the starting running back, but I think this Saints’ run defense is bad enough that he should be able to have a strong outing in week 1.
On the flip side of the situation, we have Drew Brees playing at home. He’s been pretty lights out during his time in New Orleans when the game is played at home, so he’s probably my top overall play for cash games at the position. As far as his receiving options go, I would rank them in this order: Brandin Cooks, Coby Fleener, Michael Thomas and Willie Snead. The crazy part is, I could see ALL of them accumulating over 15 FanDuel points in this one. I wouldn’t play all four of them, but they make a nice combination with Brees who should have a good game. Mark Ingram is also in play here, as Oakland should have a hard time defending against him, and he will be the guy as this team gets closer to the goal line.
In terms of game theory, this could be a game to ignore altogether. It will carry the highest ownership on the day, most likely, so avoiding players from this game and hoping for a 17-13 contest could end up helping you in larger tournaments. I don’t know how much of that I’ll do. This game should be high scoring, and most of my lineups will have at least some exposure to it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons – Total 47.5; Spread – 3 Atlanta
The house gives three points to the home team automatically, which basically means that this game would be a pick ‘em on a neutral field. If we believe that the game will be close, then it should be a game we should target because not only will it be high scoring, but we should be able to reasonably identify how the flow of the game should go. While Vegas can sometimes be wrong (Vegas was wrong 83% of the time in CFL as of the end of July in terms of covering the spread), I think they’ve identified this game properly, as it should be both high scoring and close between the division rivals. I could see this game going either way, and it is definitely worth looking at.
Let’s start with the Buccaneers. Jameis Winston actually put together a very good rookie year, and if he is able to cut back on the interceptions, he could be in line for not just a great sophomore year, but also a terrific fantasy year. In both games against Atlanta in 2015, Winston finished with mirror performances of 19.48 and 19.58 respectively. At his discounted price of $7,500, that is very good. The only receiver I would look at is Mike Evans, who really could have a huge year after working in the offseason to develop a better chemistry with Winston. He’s a big, imposing receiver who will likely see Desmond Trufant in coverage, but Evans did fine against him last year. He’s one of my favorite receivers in Week 1. I’d stay away from Vincent Jackson, Adam Humprhies and newly-signed Cecil Shorts, as I just don’t think their volume will make it worth the price. The tight ends are also kind of off limits for me here, as they can’t commit to either Cameron Brate or Austin Seferian-Jenkins enough to validate their use. That brings us to the running backs, Doug Martin and Charles Sims. As hard as it is to believe, Martin was a much better real life running back than he was a fantasy back. In fact, he only managed three games over 20 FanDuel points in 2015. Those numbers may work in cash games, but it doesn’t work for tournaments, especially at his price. That is how I would use him. Sims makes for an interesting situation, as he is the anti-Martin; he won’t carry the ball as much, but he’ll get around five targets a game. It doesn’t sound like a lot, but he averaged around 10 points per game in 2015, and at his price of $4,700, it does make him an attractive option. If he is able to turn one of those receptions or one of his few carries into a touchdown, we could be talking about a low-owned, high return on investment play that helps us win tournaments.
Wow – that really seemed like quite a bit about one team, especially given that there were only a small amount of plays given. The Atlanta side of the ball is pretty straightforward. Matt Ryan is a relatively unattractive option at quarterback, as he basically just doesn’t have much of a chance of totaling a high amount of yards or touchdowns. I don’t think that’s out of the realm of possibilities, but with quality backs in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, I don’t see it happening this week. There was a lot of talk in the offseason about Coleman eating into Freeman’s carries, but that is really too much speculation without any substance to back it up. I think Freeman is still in a good position here, but he isn’t in my top five favorite plays at the position this week. I wouldn’t look Coleman’s way at all. Julio Jones is the top option on this team, and he will continue to be so until further notice. He is a man amongst children in some sense, and he is worth every penny he costs. He saw an average of 15 targets in games against the Bucs last year, and I think this year should be the same, despite the addition of Mohammed Sanu. Sanu’s price is cheap, making him an intriguing option in tournaments, but I just don’t think the talent is there. Perhaps in this first few games it will take some attention away from Julio, but I doubt it will be much. The tight end position on this team is still really undefined, so I think we are looking mainly at Julio and Freeman here.
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles – Total: 41; Spread: -4 Philadelphia
I had a pretty in-depth breakdown here about the odds, as I feel both the total and the spread are viable betting options in Week 1. The start was a total of 44 and a spread of -7.5, but the trade of Sam Bradford really took some steam off this game. Vegas essentially took three points off of the Eagles total, turning this game into a much closer situation. I think Vegas has this game wrong. I know we are dealing with what on the surface appears to be two inept offenses, but I think it is also a game between two inept defenses. The first thing I realize is that Vegas expects both offenses to sputter. I don’t agree with that. I think the defenses are bad enough that this should exceed the total, and I think there is decent fantasy value here.
The next thing I realize, when looking at the Browns, is that, despite being road dogs in this one, I can make a case for their defense being a smart play from the game theory perspective. Everyone will be looking toward the Philly defense, but few will look to the other side of the game because, well, it’s Cleveland, and they don’t really have a great defense. What they do have is an opposition that has an unsteady running back situation, a poor quarterback situation, and an unsteady group of wide receivers led by Sir-Drops-A lot, Jordan Matthews.
Moving on to the Browns offense in this one, there are a few players I like. First, let’s be certain to remember that this wasn’t a great Eagles defense last year. I don’t know what it will look like this year, but on the surface it isn’t one of my favorites. While Robert Griffin III hasn’t seen a lot of activity over the last few years, he does have talent, and he is extremely underpriced for this matchup. I really like pairing him with either Corey Coleman or Terrelle Pryor, who could carry a high ownership due to his price and the connection he made with RGIII in the preseason. He’s only $4.9k, which when paired with RG III, leaves quite a bit of room on your roster to plug in some studs. I don’t expect either team to have much of the advantage, but I’d rather use Duke Johnson Jr. at the running back position, as he is a better pass catcher. Gary Barnidge is pretty expensive, but I definitely think there is good upside with him here.
The Eagles offense is a really interesting situation, as nothing really jumps out at me. I don’t think there is enough upside to Carson Wentz, so that is a hard pass for me. The running back situation is muddled. The team tried to move on from Ryan Mathews in the offseason, with no success. They drafted Wendell Smallwood in the fifth round, so I think they’ll want to use him, though I’m not sure how quickly that will happen. Kenjon Barner emerged somewhat in the preseason as the No. 3 option. This backfield was a mess in 2015, and I think it can be again in 2016. If I was looking at anyone, I’d go with Darren Sproles, as his role is pretty well set, and he should have a good game against this Browns defense. I don’t mind some of the Eagles receiving options in this, but I’m not in love with any of them. I’d rank them: Zach Ertz, Jordan Matthews, Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Agholor. Some may think I am crazy, but I think this is the side of the offense I would prefer to stay away from.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers – Total: 44; Spread: -2.5 Los Angeles
Call me crazy, but this isn’t a game I really see being what the Vegas odds are dictating. For one, the total has already come down from the open, and it wouldn’t really surprise me to see it drop a bit again. This is a battle between two unproven offenses, and two defenses that are questionable to some extent as well. I think that this game will be a low-scoring affair, but there could still be a few players we could look toward.
The Rams are going to be running out Case Keenum to start the year. He was a middling backup who has now found a starting job because Jared Goff isn’t ready yet. There are really some big questions on the receiving unit. Tavon Austin is the top option of the bunch, but he has never been consistent enough to inspire any confidence in using him. Still, he is cheap and carries tournament-winning upside. I don’t mind using him in small doses. The rest of the receivers are out of the question for me, as they don’t really even resemble reasonable contrarian plays. I can see the team using two tight ends to start the season, which limits both of their upside. Truly, I think there are two plays that I love for this team. The first is Todd Gurley. He should be a workhorse back in a league becoming increasingly devoid of them. He is the fifth most expensive option on the slate, and the most expensive running back, and I think in this game against an overmatched 49er front seven, he should be able to really excel. The second option for me is their defense. They are relatively cheap, and I can see Blaine Gabbert and this offense giving them a lot of opportunities to accumulate fantasy points. It doesn’t hurt that Tavon Austin is a monster in the return game, either.
The 49ers side of the game is going to be very interesting. Chip Kelly has produced some good fantasy assets in his time in the NFL, but overall, I do think his presence has been overrated. Blaine Gabbert is cheap, but he doesn’t have the upside for me to consider him. He should have to throw the ball a lot, but how many of those turn into meaningful passes is uncertain. With Dak Prescott minimum priced and in a better situation, I don’t see much of a reason to use Gabbert. Carlos Hyde could prove to be a reasonable play, as he is priced very fairly and has a pretty high amount of upside. I can’t use him in cash games, but he does make for a nice tournament play. Torrey Smith has been one of the internet’s favorite sleepers in 2016, coming off a poor 2015 and a poor preseason. I do think Gabbert will have to air the ball out, and Smith still has speed going in his favor and because of a poor showing last year is priced dirt-cheap. He is a high-upside tournament play as well. Finally, I think Vance McDonald could very well end up being one of the higher targeted players in this offense, and he will almost surely go overlooked in the opening weekend. His price is under $5k, and he should pull in some catches and be one of the top options for the team in the red zone.
I hope you enjoyed the opening week’s article. I will continue to refine my approach as the year goes on and provide information that will help you win your daily fantasy games!
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
Nicholas Volinchak is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicholas, follow him @researchandwin. You can find more of Nicholas’ football work at Research Fantasy.
