R.C. Fischer discusses players to start and those to sit in Week 4 matchups.
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Non-top 12 consensus ranked players at their positions who could wind up top 5 in Week 3
Jordan Howard (CHI) vs. Detroit
Howard is the best running back the Bears have had on their roster all season, and he finally got to show it in relief of injured Jeremy Langford Sunday night. Now, he’s the Bears’ main running back with Langford out and Ka’Deem Carey banged up. Howard may take 20–25+ carries against Detroit this week.
The Lions are dead last in yards per carry allowed in the NFL (5.1 per carry). You attack the Lions by running at them. The Lions’ run defense is so bad Eddie Lacy had a 100+ yard game against them last week. Howard is going 20+ carries for 100+ yards and at least a TD this week.
The last time Howard faced a team from the state of Michigan, he pasted 238 yards and two TDs on 35 carries against top college defense Michigan last season…one of the finest single-game performances I scouted among RB prospects this past draft season.
Tyrell Williams (SD) vs. New Orleans
We all saw what Brandon Coleman and Michael Thomas did to the Saints Monday night. The Saints are not good, and they have to travel to the West Coast on a short week to take on San Diego…a Chargers team that is the third-highest scoring in the league right now.
Williams is emerging as the Chargers’ best receiving weapon. He was knocking on the door of a 3–4 TD day in Week 2 (wound up with 1 TD), his debut as a starter. Last week, after just one (dropped) target in the first half, he caught 6-of-8 targets in the second half for 69 yards and nearly scored a TD for the second week. He emerged as ‘the guy’ in the 4th quarter, and terrific cover corner Vontae Davis could not stop him. Williams is a terrific WR talent, and this Week 4 game against a broken-down pass coverage opponent (New Orleans) was made for him to have his big shining ‘arrival moment.’
Carlos Hyde (SF) vs. Dallas
Obviously, Hyde is going to start for everyone this week, but I put him here to emphasize that he could be the top running back of the week — I was surprised to see him outside the top 12 in the early expert rankings this week.
The Dallas defense is among the bottom five in yards per carry allowed, despite the fact that they have faced some of the worst running teams in the NFL the first three games – the Giants, Redskins, and Bears. Conversely, Hyde has faced three top eight run defenses (in yards per carry allowed) this season and is No. 11 in rushing yards and tied for first in rushing TDs. It’s Hyde’s easiest matchup of 2016 to date and the toughest one for the Dallas run defense.
Sit
Top 15 ranked players at their positions that are going to make you whine and say “I can’t sit my studs!” and then will make you wish you had:
Todd Gurley (LA) vs. Arizona
Gurley had two TDs last week…so what! It was his fifth game in a row with 85 yards or fewer rushing. It was the 11th time in his last 12 games under 90 yards rushing. Last week also marked the fourth game in a row that Gurley caught just one pass in a game. He’s caught all of eight passes in his last nine games. I’m a huge fan of Gurley’s. He’s just having the fantasy life choked out of him by Jeff Fisher’s offense. Now, he faces an Arizona defense gunning for him, like all defenses do, but Arizona has a pretty good group to gun with. Another sour week for Gurley ahead. All you can pray is the Rams get to the 1-yard line for a (not so) easy TD plunge.
Christine Michael (SEA) vs. NY Jets
The Jets’ defense has allowed the third-lowest yards per game rushing this season, which is a continuation from their No. 3 performance all of 2015. This is a tough run defense. They have held opposing offenses to less than 90 yards rushing in seven of their last nine games.
Michael’s claim to fame is rushing for 106 yards last week, a game where he ran for a 41-yard TD on his first carry, and then was held to 19 carries for 65 yards (3.4 ypc) the rest of the game. He also caught two passes for all of five yards. He’s not that great of a running back, he’s been forced into the starting role, and now faces the best run defense he’s seen this season versus the Jets. I don’t see a big upside week here.
Marvin Jones (DET) vs. Chicago
I know he had a great game last week, but let’s use some prudence. Jones torched Damarious Randall in Week 3. In Week 2, Randall was scorched by Stefon Diggs for nine catches, 182 yards, one TD…and we all went crazy proclaiming Diggs a superstar – and then he followed that up in Week 3 with a dull four catches for 40 yards.
Jones gets the Bears this week, and that seems like a cherry matchup…but did you know the Bears are the 10th-best pass defense in the league, only yielding 214.3 yards per game? They gave DeAndre Hopkins some fits in Week 1. Carson Wentz was held to 190 yards passing in Week 2, and Jordan Matthews had a decent not great game. In Week 3, the Bears had shut down Dez until very late in the game when he got a TD…but he had only three catches for 40 yards on the night. No. 1 wide receivers are not blowing up the Bears in 2016.
The Bears cover the pass better than we think, and they will throw the kitchen sink at hot-Marvin this week. He will have a mild letdown from his lofty numbers the past two weeks.
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